State Legislature Special Election Mega Thread

[Virginiá]

Oklahoma Rs need to get their act together asap...

I feel like the only thing they really need to worry about is losing the Governors office and/or maybe a significant number of row offices. Democrats are in such a hole in the legislature that even Republicans losing a bunch of state Senate special elections will probably not affect Republicans in any substantive way. I'm not completely sure what the win count is right now, but I think with the special elections this year, Democrats may only be at or near where they were pre-2016, which was already bad enough.

Although I guess in 2018 there could be substantial legislative losses for Republicans if it keeps up like this.

[MAINEiac4434]

Of all the unexpected things to happen in 2017, Oklahoma becoming the bulwark of the #Resistance is the most unexpected and bizarre.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Line                                 
STATE SENATOR   
FOR STATE SENATOR DISTRICT 37 (UNEXPIRED TERM)   
8 of 28 Precincts Completely Reporting      
ABSENTEE
MAIL      EARLY
VOTING      ELECTION
DAY      
TOTAL      
BRIAN O'HARA (REP)   116      41      436      593   44.69%
ALLISON IKLEY-FREEMAN (DEM)   95      33      606      734   55.31%
Total   211      74      1,042      1,327      

FOR STATE SENATOR DISTRICT 45 (UNEXPIRED TERM)   
14 of 26 Precincts Completely Reporting      
ABSENTEE
MAIL      EARLY
VOTING      ELECTION
DAY      
TOTAL      
PAUL ROSINO (REP)   245      8      966      1,219   54.06%
STEVEN VINCENT (DEM)   160      13      863      1,036   45.94%
Total   405      21      1,829      2,255      


Line                                 
STATE REPRESENTATIVE   
FOR STATE REPRESENTATIVE DISTRICT 76 (UNEXPIRED TERM)   
1 of 12 Precincts Completely Reporting      
ABSENTEE
MAIL      EARLY
VOTING      ELECTION
DAY      
TOTAL      
ROSS FORD (REP)   68      15      32      115   69.28%
CHRIS VanLANDINGHAM (DEM)   18      8      25      51   30.72%
Total   86      23      57      166

[LimoLiberal]

Paul Rosino (R) pulling away in SD-45

14 of 26 Precincts Completely Reporting      
ABSENTEE
MAIL      EARLY
VOTING      ELECTION
DAY      
TOTAL      
PAUL ROSINO (REP)   245      8      966      1,219   54.06%
STEVEN VINCENT (DEM)   160      13      863      1,036   45.94%
Total   405      21      1,829      2,255   

[MAINEiac4434]

The fact is SD-45 shouldn't even be this close.

[Brittain33]

This is not news, but considering each of these senate districts has 80,000 people, turnout is absolutely pathetic.

[GlobeSoc]

It's possible that with these low turnouts a precinct where democrats turned out strongly could have a disproportionate impact on these races.

[MAINEiac4434]

Vincent isn't going to catch Rosino in SD-45.

[Ebsy]

Yeah 45 is probably a bridge too far. Still a very respectable showing.

[Virginiá]

Didn't Trump carry almost every single legislative district in Oklahoma? If so that would mean Democrats usually depend on winning over Republicans. Tthe enthusiasm gap in special elections and split ticket voters would explain their recent wins.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

WULFRIC PROJECTION: ROSINO WINS


FOR STATE SENATOR DISTRICT 45 (UNEXPIRED TERM)   
20 of 26 Precincts Completely Reporting      
ABSENTEE
MAIL      EARLY
VOTING      ELECTION
DAY      
TOTAL      
PAUL ROSINO (REP)   245      8      1,655      1,908   55.06%
STEVEN VINCENT (DEM)   160      13      1,384      1,557   44.94%
Total   405      21      3,039      3,465

[LimoLiberal]

Ikley-Freeman losing ground

BRIAN O'HARA (REP)   116      41      691      848   47.83%
ALLISON IKLEY-FREEMAN (DEM)   95      33      797      925   52.17%

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Line                                 
STATE SENATOR   
FOR STATE SENATOR DISTRICT 37 (UNEXPIRED TERM)   
10 of 28 Precincts Completely Reporting      
ABSENTEE
MAIL      EARLY
VOTING      ELECTION
DAY      
TOTAL      
BRIAN O'HARA (REP)   116      41      691      848   47.83%
ALLISON IKLEY-FREEMAN (DEM)   95      33      797      925   52.17%
Total   211      74      1,488      1,773

[MAINEiac4434]

Don't look now, but O'Hara is surging in SD-37. Now less than 100 votes between the candidates.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Can someone please answer my Tim Keller question?

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Line                                 
STATE SENATOR   
FOR STATE SENATOR DISTRICT 37 (UNEXPIRED TERM)   
13 of 28 Precincts Completely Reporting      
ABSENTEE
MAIL      EARLY
VOTING      ELECTION
DAY      
TOTAL      
BRIAN O'HARA (REP)   116      41      818      975   48.08%
ALLISON IKLEY-FREEMAN (DEM)   95      33      925      1,053   51.92%
Total   211      74      1,743      2,028

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

District 45 wasn't all that close in the end:


FOR STATE SENATOR DISTRICT 45 (UNEXPIRED TERM)   
26 of 26 Precincts Completely Reporting      
ABSENTEE
MAIL      EARLY
VOTING      ELECTION
DAY      
TOTAL      
PAUL ROSINO (REP)   245      8      2,564      2,817   56.78%
STEVEN VINCENT (DEM)   160      13      1,971      2,144   43.22%
Total   405      21      4,535      4,961

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

OK SD 37 is 67/27 Trump
OK SD 45 is 67/27 Trump
OK HD 76 is 65/30 Trump

OK SD 45 voted 56-43 Republican in this special election, a 26 point swing since 2016.

I don't expect a win in any of these special elections tonight.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

WULFRIC PROJECTION: FORD WINS

STATE REPRESENTATIVE   
FOR STATE REPRESENTATIVE DISTRICT 76 (UNEXPIRED TERM)   
3 of 12 Precincts Completely Reporting      
ABSENTEE
MAIL      EARLY
VOTING      ELECTION
DAY      
TOTAL      
ROSS FORD (REP)   68      15      281      364   69.07%
CHRIS VanLANDINGHAM (DEM)   18      8      137      163   30.93%
Total   86      23      418      527

[MaxQue]

Can someone please answer my Tim Keller question?

I guess Albuquerque mayor has more power than NM State Auditor.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

STATE SENATOR   
FOR STATE SENATOR DISTRICT 37 (UNEXPIRED TERM)   
15 of 28 Precincts Completely Reporting      
ABSENTEE
MAIL      EARLY
VOTING      ELECTION
DAY      
TOTAL      
BRIAN O'HARA (REP)   116      41      903      1,060   48.62%
ALLISON IKLEY-FREEMAN (DEM)   95      33      992      1,120   51.38%
Total   211      74      1,895      2,180

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I don't think we will hold OK SD 37, but at least we just did a huge flip in the Albuquerque mayoral race!

[LimoLiberal]

O'Hara takes the lead

      ABSENTEE
MAIL      EARLY
VOTING      ELECTION
DAY      
TOTAL      
BRIAN O'HARA (REP)   116      41      1,096      1,253   50.26%
ALLISON IKLEY-FREEMAN (DEM)   95      33      1,112      1,240   49.74%
Total   211      74      2,208      2,493      

FOR STATE SENATOR DISTRICT 45 (UNEXPIRED TERM)   
26 of 26 Precincts Completely Reporting      
ABSENTEE
MAIL      EARLY
VOTING      ELECTION
DAY      
TOTAL      
PAUL ROSINO (REP)   245      8      2,564      2,817   56.78%
STEVEN VINCENT (DEM)   160      13      1,971      2,144   43.22%
Total   405      21      4,535      4,961      


Line                                 
STATE REPRESENTATIVE   
FOR STATE REPRESENTATIVE DISTRICT 76 (UNEXPIRED TERM)   
3 of 12 Precincts Completely Reporting      
ABSENTEE
MAIL      EARLY
VOTING      ELECTION
DAY      
TOTAL      
ROSS FORD (REP)   68      15      281      364   69.07%
CHRIS VanLANDINGHAM (DEM)   18      8      137      163   30.93%
Total   86      23      418      527      


Results as of: 11/14/2017 8:36:24 PM                           

[GlobeSoc]

I suppose you can't win them all.

[Brittain33]

What does that make the PVI, R+21 and R+19?

OK SD 37 is 67/27 Trump
OK SD 45 is 67/27 Trump
OK HD 76 is 65/30 Trump

OK SD 45 voted 56-43 Republican in this special election, a 26 point swing since 2016.

I don't expect a win in any of these special elections tonight.