State Legislature Special Election Mega Thread

[IceSpear]

The N of the special elections this year is actually approaching the point where conclusions can be drawn. What is amusing, though, is that IceSpear is accusing everyone here of being obsessed with anecdotes while simultaneously latching onto a single anecdote and dismissing all other anecdotes to drive his preferred narrative.

I'm not sure what anecdote you think I'm clinging to or what you think "my narrative" is. I hardly think it's controversial to dismiss elections where the voter turnout percentage is in the single digits. And especially to dismiss them as not indicative of large nationwide trends. But if you're going to disagree, you can't then use "low turnout!" as an excuse for when one goes against you.

Admittedly, I did vastly overgeneralize from one poster's comment. But the unconditional accepance of anything positive and ignoring/dismissing of anything that goes against the preferred narrative is very common here in general. Just look at 2016. You called me a concern troll multiple times, but turns out I was actually far too OPTIMISTIC, lol.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Apparently in MA a liberal independent candidate siphoned enough votes from the Democrat and that's how the R won.

[Ebsy]

Apparently in MA a liberal independent candidate siphoned enough votes from the Democrat and that's how the R won.

I think some people are too busy pushing their narratives to wait for the actual vote totals to draw conclusions.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

RESULTS
State Senator, District 6
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Counties/Precincts Reporting: 0 %
JAHA HOWARD (DEM)57.61%2,321
JEN JORDAN (DEM)42.39%1,708
State Senator, District 39
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Counties/Precincts Reporting: 0 %
LINDA PRITCHETT (DEM)0.00%0
NIKEMA WILLIAMS (DEM)0.00%0
State Representative, District 60
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Counties/Precincts Reporting: 50 %
DE'ANDRE S. PICKETT (DEM)54.31%63
KIM SCHOFIELD (DEM)45.69%53
State Representative, District 89
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Counties/Precincts Reporting: 0 %
BEE NGUYEN (DEM)49.55%1,096
SACHIN VARGHESE (DEM)50.45%1,116


Amanda Burke
@aburkeSE
@suechalifoux concedes to @ElectDeanTran before an emotional crowd of supporters at Slate #MASenate

32/33 in:

Representative in the General Assembly

133rd Legislative District County Breakdown
MCNEILL, JEANNE
(DEM)
68.06%
    Votes: 2,227
MOLONY, DAVID
(REP)
28.48%
    Votes: 932
DORNEY, SAMANTHA X
(LIB)
3.45%
    Votes: 113 Back to Top

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Final PA Results: 133rd Legislative District County Breakdown
MCNEILL, JEANNE
(DEM)
67.55%
    Votes: 2,290
MOLONY, DAVID
(REP)
29.06%
    Votes: 985
DORNEY, SAMANTHA X
(LIB)
3.39%
    Votes: 115

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

ULTS
State Senator, District 6
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Counties/Precincts Reporting: 50 %
JAHA HOWARD (DEM)42.43%3,976
JEN JORDAN (DEM)57.57%5,395
State Senator, District 39
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Counties/Precincts Reporting: 0 %
LINDA PRITCHETT (DEM)48.31%4,563
NIKEMA WILLIAMS (DEM)51.69%4,883
State Representative, District 60
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Counties/Precincts Reporting: 50 %
DE'ANDRE S. PICKETT (DEM)48.22%959
KIM SCHOFIELD (DEM)51.78%1,030
State Representative, District 89
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Counties/Precincts Reporting: 0 %
BEE NGUYEN (DEM)49.70%2,220
SACHIN VARGHESE (DEM)50.30%2,247

[Jeppe]

Bee Nguyen declared elected in Georgia's House District 89, with 100% of the vote counted. Probably the first Asian-American woman elected to the State House in Georgia. All of the other Emily's List endorsed candidates are currently leading too.

I think Emily's List has become a major player in Democratic primaries. A lot of their candidates have won tough primaries this year, and went on to get elected in the general election.

[QAnonKelly]

Bee Nguyen declared elected in Georgia's House District 89, with 100% of the vote counted. Probably the first Asian-American woman elected to the State House in Georgia. All of the other Emily's List endorsed candidates are currently leading too.

I think Emily's List has become a major player in Democratic primaries. A lot of their candidates have won tough primaries this year, and went on to get elected in the general election.

EMILY’s List is doing great work. Looks like three of their candidates in GA will win alone tonight. Still salty they endorsed Abrams over Evans though, right out of the gate. Think they should have waited

[Jeppe]

They didn't endorse Kim Schofield for some reason, but she's a woman and currently leading her male opponent.

GEORGIA

Jen Jordan   GA - SD06
Nikema Williams - GA-SD39
Bee Nguyen - GA-HD89 (elected)
Deborah Gonzalez - GA-HD117 (elected)
Keisha Lance Bottoms    - Atlanta Mayor

They might get all of their Georgia endorsements elected.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Unofficial Results
HOMESTATEWIDE RESULTS 
Last updated 12/5/2017 11:07:05 PM EST
 FULL SCREEN
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RESULTS
State Senator, District 6
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Counties/Precincts Reporting: 50 %
JAHA HOWARD (DEM)37.43%5,374
JEN JORDAN (DEM)62.57%8,984
State Senator, District 39
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Counties/Precincts Reporting: 0 %
LINDA PRITCHETT (DEM)48.75%9,760
NIKEMA WILLIAMS (DEM)51.25%10,262
State Representative, District 60
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Counties/Precincts Reporting: 50 %
DE'ANDRE S. PICKETT (DEM)47.24%1,994
KIM SCHOFIELD (DEM)52.76%2,227
State Representative, District 89
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Counties/Precincts Reporting: 100 %
BEE NGUYEN (DEM)52.40%4,576
SACHIN VARGHESE (DEM)47.60%4,156

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

California, Early Vote:

Member of the State Assembly, 51st District (Unexpired Term Ending 12/03/2018)
D
Wendy Carrillo   55.59%   
5,188
D
Luis López   44.41%   
4,144
0 of 129 precincts reporting (0.00%)Voter Nominated

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Everything in from GA:


State Senator, District 6
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Counties/Precincts Reporting: 100 %
JAHA HOWARD (DEM)36.03%6,017
JEN JORDAN (DEM)63.97%10,681
State Senator, District 39
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Counties/Precincts Reporting: 100 %
LINDA PRITCHETT (DEM)48.94%11,032
NIKEMA WILLIAMS (DEM)51.06%11,511
State Representative, District 60
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Counties/Precincts Reporting: 100 %
DE'ANDRE S. PICKETT (DEM)47.24%1,994
KIM SCHOFIELD (DEM)52.76%2,227
State Representative, District 89
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Counties/Precincts Reporting: 100 %
BEE NGUYEN (DEM)52.40%4,576
SACHIN VARGHESE (DEM)47.60%4,156

[Strudelcutie4427]

You guys might want to read the post right above yours.

Yes, where he said low turnout was a factor, just as it was in those Oklahoma specials. I missed "irrelevant" though - that's the part you added.

I live in Massachusetts and I'm genuinely curious why the R won here.

That whole Northern Worcester County area along the NH border is trending republican fast. Its got alot of WWC voters and the swing to trump last year were massive. Of all the towns in it, i'd say they break down as follows:

Gardner- Mill town but not as big as some others, big working class population and was very close in 2016.
Westminster- Rural mountain town (Home of Wachusett Mountain), usually votes republican anyway

Fitchburg- Larger mill town with a state college in it. Usually democrat, but (Now State Sen.) Dean Tran lives here. Alot of WWC voters, but sizable hispanic population

Leominster- The nicer version of Fitchburg. It's been revitalized somewhat and is competitive for both parties. The town center (old mill district) is strongly democrat and the outskirts are more republican

Sterling- Farm town, they have a corn maze there. Pretty republican and just out of both Worcester and Fitchburg's orbits

Holden- I've never been there, but I'm gonna assume its like Sterling, but more liberal given the towns bordering it to the east (Harvard, Boxford, Hudson)

Berlin- Like Holden but smaller and they have a Cabella's (A more redneck version of Bass Pro)

Lancaster- Like Sterling, big, rural, and usually republican. It's pretty well to do from what I've seen though. Part of Fort Devens was here.

Lunenburg- Fitchburg's eastern burb and home to the local Wal-Mart. Its a mix of suburban and rural, but generally leans heavily republican downballot

Townsend- A small town sandwiched between Fitchburg and NH that is very rural and republican. It has more in common with the NH towns it borders than it generally do with massachusetts.

[smoltchanov]

So what happened? Did the Dem candidate just sh**t the bed? lol

Tran was a good candidate - he almost won a state House race before. Plus - moderate Indie, who, probably, took at least some Democratic votes. And, overall, this part of Massachussetts and this district in particular is NOT too liberal in general.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Member of the State Assembly, 51st District (Unexpired Term Ending 12/03/2018)
D
Wendy Carrillo   53.27%   
7,373
D
Luis López   46.73%   
6,468
80 of 129 precincts reporting (62.02%)Voter Nominated

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Final CA Results:

Member of the State Assembly, 51st District (Unexpired Term Ending 12/03/2018)
D
Wendy Carrillo   52.83%   
8,811
D
Luis López   47.17%   
7,868
129 of 129 precincts reporting (100.0%)Voter Nominated

That's it for tonight. Next up is Iowa Senate 3 on December 12th.

[Landslide Lyndon]

You guys might want to read the post right above yours.

Yes, where he said low turnout was a factor, just as it was in those Oklahoma specials. I missed "irrelevant" though - that's the part you added.

I live in Massachusetts and I'm genuinely curious why the R won here.

That whole Northern Worcester County area along the NH border is trending republican fast. Its got alot of WWC voters and the swing to trump last year were massive. Of all the towns in it, i'd say they break down as follows:

Actually the district trended Democratic last year (it was 52-46 Obama in 2012, 50-42 Clinton in 2016).

[smoltchanov]

You guys might want to read the post right above yours.

Yes, where he said low turnout was a factor, just as it was in those Oklahoma specials. I missed "irrelevant" though - that's the part you added.

I live in Massachusetts and I'm genuinely curious why the R won here.

That whole Northern Worcester County area along the NH border is trending republican fast. Its got alot of WWC voters and the swing to trump last year were massive. Of all the towns in it, i'd say they break down as follows:

Actually the district trended Democratic last year (it was 52-46 Obama in 2012, 50-42 Clinton in 2016).

Still - not too liberal, especially - by Massachussetts standards. So - good Republican candidate (like Tran) can win here...

[Brittain33]

Oh yay, I found some numbers for the MA race.

http://www.sentinelandenterprise.com/breakingnews/ci_31504076/gops-dean-tran-wins-special-election-state-senate

Tran (R): 7,240
Chalifoux Zephyr (D): 6,633
Freda (I): 1,554
DiCalogero (Green): 200

Freda described herself as a fiscal conservative but "strong on social justice", either a conservative Democrat or a liberal Republican. Without knowing more it's hard to say who she hurt more, but obviously she had a following. In a special election, she may have pulled out people who were unlikely to vote if she weren't in the race. Her healthcare platform is brilliant, she should be running HHS: "Healthcare is the biggest liability and expense that the state faces. It also impacts our cities and towns. A more affordable healthcare program needs to be made available."

On the basis of 5 minutes of web searching and the sizable margin Tran had, I can't say from these totals that she caused the election to go from D to R.

[Brittain33]

Oh, this has got to be it.

Tran is an at-large city councillor in Fitchburg, pop. 40,414.
Chalifoux Zephyr is at-large city councillor in Leominster, pop. 41,663.

Evenly matched, right?
Except Clare Freda was also a city councillor at-large in Leominster.

I would love to see city results, but it sounds like Freda sapped Chalifoux Zephyr's geographic base.

Maybe Tran would have won anyway, but I bet this was the nail in the D's coffin.

[Jeppe]

Oh, this has got to be it.

Tran is an at-large city councillor in Fitchburg, pop. 40,414.
Chalifoux Zephyr is at-large city councillor in Leominster, pop. 41,663.

Evenly matched, right?
Except Clare Freda was also a city councillor at-large in Leominster.

I would love to see city results, but it sounds like Freda sapped Chalifoux Zephyr's geographic base.

Maybe Tran would have won anyway, but I bet this was the nail in the D's coffin.

I saw on Twitter that the Dem only won by 2 votes in Leominster, and that the Republican trounced the Dem in Fitchburg.

[Strudelcutie4427]

Oh, this has got to be it.

Tran is an at-large city councillor in Fitchburg, pop. 40,414.
Chalifoux Zephyr is at-large city councillor in Leominster, pop. 41,663.

Evenly matched, right?
Except Clare Freda was also a city councillor at-large in Leominster.

I would love to see city results, but it sounds like Freda sapped Chalifoux Zephyr's geographic base.

Maybe Tran would have won anyway, but I bet this was the nail in the D's coffin.

I saw on Twitter that the Dem only won by 2 votes in Leominster, and that the Republican trounced the Dem in Fitchburg.

His margin in Fitchburg was amazing even for an at large councilor. Fitchburg is like Massachusetts’s own little poece of the Rust Belt along with Gardner which is also in this district.

[Virginiá]

All these races are irrelevant. The turnouts are so ridiculously low that you can get extreme flukes like this Massachusetts race and the Oklahoma races easily. If you're going to build your case for a wave, you'd be best off using generic ballot polls and the Virginia results.

That totally makes sense if you are referring to a handful of races, particularly in a state like Oklahoma, but taking all the special elections to date together as a whole, the average is somewhere around Democrats over-performing by 11 points (taken from 538). This is from dozens of legislative special elections, and the over-performance for those 4 Congressional specials was like +8 iirc. This is a complete reversal of the chronic under-performance under Obama. Combined with the Virginia results, it definitely does not paint a rosy picture for Republicans next year.

[Badger]

There's some indication that the "wave" has slowed down recently. Special elections and the generic ballot are not looking as rosy for Democrats as they were 3 weeks ago.

A Q-poll came out literally today showing the Democrats with a 14% lead on the generic ballot.

I appreciate your dedication to what you're doing here, but don't try that with me, sweetheart.

LimoLiberal has nothing of value to contribute, it seems. He may have to be the next one to go on ignore for the first time since Harding.

I was the first to actually find the Massachusetts results tonight and post them, but whatever.

By the way, I'm not a Republican. Nor do I post at RRH.

So, a Russian bot then.

[smoltchanov]

^ As a Russian (and living now in Russia to boot), i will say that it makes no more sense for Russian "powers that be" to support Republican party and it's candidates then Democratic party and it's candidates now. Relations between our two countries are bad (approximately the same as they would be under Hillary), and there are no signs of their improvement in a near future under any feasible scenario. So, the dominant position would, probably, be, "plague on BOTH your houses"))))). Right now Russian goverment, most likely, doesn't needs active bots in US....