State Legislature Special Election Mega Thread

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Tonight, there is a special election in Iowa Senate District 3.

Plymouth County Results: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1z4fmlkhcrJ1LPtacgG95Sb16jck9s6wjfEo7c_1Kp7g/edit?ts=5a2ee8f5#gid=0

Woodbury County Results:
http://wcmelepub.wcicc.com/

Combine the results of both sites to get the result for the entire district.

[MT Treasurer]

Is the Republican favored in this race? Obama actually carried Woodbury in 2012, but Trump won it in by 20 points in 2016. Plymouth is heavily Republican.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Is the Republican favored in this race?

Yes

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Wendt narrowly won Woodbury County, but Plymouth is coming in and Carlin has this.

Woodbury (100% in): Wendt 1923, Carlin 1867
Plymouth (9/13 in): Carlin 1141, Wendt 666

Total: Carlin 3008 (54%), Wendt 2589 (46%)

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Final:

Woodbury: Wendt 1923, Carlin 1867
Plymouth: Carlin 1724, Wendt 1065
Total: Carlin 3591 (55%), Wendt 2988 (45%)


Turnout: 6579

[Landslide Lyndon]

Final:

Woodbury: Wendt 1923, Carlin 1867
Plymouth: Carlin 1724, Wendt 1065
Total: Carlin 3591 (55%), Wendt 2988 (45%)


Turnout: 6579

What's the swing compared to 2016 and 2012?

[Ebsy]

Wow that is a big Republican underperformance. SD 3 went 68-27 Trump in 2016 and 60-39 Romney in 2012. I would not be surprised if the Democrat carried HD 6 with the results in Woodbury County. Iowa Republicans should be very alarmed.

[junior chįmp]

What Democrats got to do to win back the state legislatures in 2018:



Very informative article here about winning back state legislatures:

https://medium.com/@EveryDistrict/the-road-to-160-7b0b062ce9cf

[BuckeyeNut]

Ignoring the fact that neither house of the Ohio General Assembly ever holds special elections, it is almost literally impossible to win the Ohio Senate majority with the current map.

[junior chįmp]

Early/absentee votes in Florida's 58th district (election tomorrow)

broken link deleted

[ajc0918]

Early/absentee votes in Florida's 58th district (election tomorrow)

broken link deleted

From the look of it, the higher turnout areas are all DEM leaning. However, this would be a hard seat to flip given the candidate and his fundraising disadvantage but I know there has been a decent amount of grassroots activity. DEM would need to win election day votes by a good margin I would think to have a chance. And there's a liberal independent "Bernie" type candidate on the ballot which will draw from the DEMs.

[Donerail]

For context on the magnitude of that fundraising disadvantage:
McClure (R): $244k raised, $181k spent
Saadaldin (I): $20k raised, $10k spent
Zemina (L): $13k raised, $12k spent
Vasquez (D): $6k raised, $5k spent

[Landslide Lyndon]

For context on the magnitude of that fundraising disadvantage:
McClure (R): $244k raised, $181k spent
Saadaldin (I): $20k raised, $10k spent
Zemina (L): $13k raised, $12k spent
Vasquez (D): $6k raised, $5k spent

Why didn't the Democrats field a more serious candidate? I know it's a Republican leaning district but in this environment it seems to me that it's hardly out of reach.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Today's elections:

Florida House 58 (7 ET): http://enight.elections.myflorida.com/Offices/StateRepresentative/

Mississippi Senate 49 (8 ET): #BrowseTwitter for results
Tennessee Senate 17   (8 ET): http://elections.tn.gov/results.php?ByOffice=Tennessee%20Senate%20District%2017

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

FL-58 EARLY VOTE:

Candidate   Party   Votes Received   
Lawrence McClure   REP   5,687   
53.64%
Jose Vazquez   DEM   3,630   
34.24%
Ahmad Hussam Saadaldin   NPA   966   
9.11%
Bryan Zemina   LPF   319   
3.01%
10,602   Total

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Election Day vote is counted, still a bit more early vote to come in.

State Representative, District 58
General
Compare All Counties
Compare by County
Candidate   Party   Votes Received   
Lawrence McClure   REP   7,585   
54.5%
Jose Vazquez   DEM   4,706   
33.81%
Ahmad Hussam Saadaldin   NPA   1,184   
8.51%
Bryan Zemina   LPF   443   
3.18%
13,918   Total

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Florida dems suck so hard. In before LimoLiberal wets his bed again.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

rip.

[Brittain33]

Florida dems suck so hard. In before LimoLiberal wets his bed again.

Feel free to report trolling to moderators

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Final Results:

State Representative, District 58
General
Compare All Counties
Compare by County
Candidate   Party   Votes Received   
Lawrence McClure   REP   7,592   
54.47%
Jose Vazquez   DEM   4,715   
33.83%
Ahmad Hussam Saadaldin   NPA   1,188   
8.52%
Bryan Zemina   LPF   443   
3.18%
13,938   Total

#FLDEMSSUCK

[LimoLiberal]

Final Results:

State Representative, District 58
General
Compare All Counties
Compare by County
Candidate   Party   Votes Received   
Lawrence McClure   REP   7,592   
54.47%
Jose Vazquez   DEM   4,715   
33.83%
Ahmad Hussam Saadaldin   NPA   1,188   
8.52%
Bryan Zemina   LPF   443   
3.18%
13,938   Total

#FLDEMSSUCK

Very interesting. 20 point margin for R. I think Clinton lost this district by 10?

[Virginiá]

Very interesting. 20 point margin for R. I think Clinton lost this district by 10?

It must be that tax reform bump!

[LimoLiberal]

Wow very impressive performance by the Dem so far in the Tennessee race


Cannon
Mark Pody   Republican   145   54.92%
Mary Alice Carfi   Democratic   119   45.08%
Clay
Mark Pody   Republican   0   0%
Mary Alice Carfi   Democratic   0   0%
DeKalb
Mark Pody   Republican   0   0%
Mary Alice Carfi   Democratic   0   0%
Macon
Mark Pody   Republican   242   63.68%
Mary Alice Carfi   Democratic   138   36.32%
Smith
Mark Pody   Republican   0   0%
Mary Alice Carfi   Democratic   0   0%
Wilson
Mark Pody   Republican   1,811   54.73%
Mary Alice Carfi   Democratic   1,498   45.27%
Totals
Mark Pody   Republican   2,198   55.60%
Mary Alice Carfi   Democratic   1,755   44.40%

[Brittain33]

Final Results:

State Representative, District 58
General
Compare All Counties
Compare by County
Candidate   Party   Votes Received   
Lawrence McClure   REP   7,592   
54.47%
Jose Vazquez   DEM   4,715   
33.83%
Ahmad Hussam Saadaldin   NPA   1,188   
8.52%
Bryan Zemina   LPF   443   
3.18%
13,938   Total

#FLDEMSSUCK

Very interesting. 20 point margin for R. I think Clinton lost this district by 10?

Yes, it's a big swing. Why do you think the Democrat running this time did worse than Clinton, LimoLiberal?

Feel free to make reference to facts mentioned further up in the thread about the candidates.

[LimoLiberal]

Anybody know if Tennessee early vote is especially pro Dem?