State Legislature Special Election Mega Thread

[GeorgiaModerate]

Well, it was a nice try:

Tennessee Senate District 17
View County Breakdown
Candidate   Party   Votes   %
Mark Pody   Republican   3,334   53.89%
Mary Alice Carfi   Democratic   2,853   46.11%

Trump carried this district by which margin?

If the district consists exactly of Cannon, Clay, DeKalb, Macon, Smith, and Wilson counties (which it looks like, but I'm not certain of this), the 2016 results were:

County    Trump       Clinton     Trump%   Clinton%
Cannon     4007          1127   78.0%   22.0%
Clay           2141            707   75.2%   24.8%
DeKalb      5171         1569   76.7%   23.3%
Macon       6263         1072   85.4%   14.6%
Smith        5494         1689   76.5%   23.5%
Wilson     39406        14385   73.3%   26.7%
TOTAL     62482      20549   75.3%   24.7%

% is the share of the two-candidate vote.

[Mr.Phips]

How small are Tennessee’s senate districts if only 6500 people voted in this one?

Votes are still coming in.

Tennessee Senate District 17
View County Breakdown
Candidate   Party   Votes   %
Mark Pody   Republican   3,562   53.40%
Mary Alice Carfi   Democratic   3,108   46.60%

Cannon   Final Results   Early Votes, Absentee Votes, Precincts   9 of 9   
Clay   Incomplete   Early Votes, Absentee Votes, Precincts   2 of 7   
Dekalb   Incomplete   Early Votes, Absentee Votes, Precincts   8 of 15   
Macon   Incomplete   Early Votes, Absentee Votes, Precincts   7 of 10   
Smith   Incomplete   Early Votes, Absentee Votes, Precincts   1 of 8   
Wilson   Incomplete   Early Votes, Absentee Votes   0 of 31   

Wilson will likely end up giving the Republican a big lead.

It was the least pro-Trump county out of all the counties in the district.

But less elastic than the other counties.

How do you know that it is less elastic?

Wealthier and more suburban.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Wealthier and more suburban.

Those districts have been the most elastic throughout 2017 though (see Virgina Beach and Shelby county), which kind of ruins your entire point.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Tennessee Senate District 17
View County Breakdown
Candidate   Party   Votes   %
Mark Pody   Republican   4,425   53.38%
Mary Alice Carfi   Democratic   3,864   46.62%

[Donerail]

This is rather embarrassing for Florida Dems though. They have yet to overperform in a special to date, and I'm pretty sure that's the only state they're consistently underperforming Clinton in. They should just fire their whole leadership and bring in the people who run Virginia Democratic Party.

Cannot believe I'm going to go to bat for the FDP here, but. The FDP has only attempted to contest two races this year, the St. Pete mayoral election and the special election in Senate District 40 in southwestern Dade. In both, they faced two candidates who were much better fits for their electorates than Trump was: in St. Pete, that was popular former two-term Mayor Rick Baker, while in SD-40 it was State Rep. José Félix Díaz, whose state house district overlapped with much of SD-40. Conventional wisdom was that they'd lose both; they won both.

In HD-58 specifically, Democrats made a major effort to recruit former Plant City Mayor John Dicks. Dicks declined to run and, with no other credible candidates willing to run, the FDP wisely decided to punt on the race and save their (very limited) money.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Everything in except for 11 Wilson precincts

Tennessee Senate District 17
View County Breakdown
Candidate   Party   Votes   %
Mark Pody   Republican   5,253   53.01%
Mary Alice Carfi   Democratic   4,657   46.99%

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

She won DeKalb and Smith. Watch out Motormouth Marsha!

Clay county too

[LimoLiberal]

Everything in except for 11 Wilson precincts

Tennessee Senate District 17
View County Breakdown
Candidate   Party   Votes   %
Mark Pody   Republican   5,253   53.01%
Mary Alice Carfi   Democratic   4,657   46.99%

Carfi wins Clay, Dekalb and Smith counties by 7, 3, and 1 points respectively.

Trump won them by 49, 52, and 51 points.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Four precincts left:

Tennessee Senate District 17
View County Breakdown
Candidate   Party   Votes   %
Mark Pody   Republican   5,715   52.01%
Mary Alice Carfi   Democratic   5,273   47.99%

[LimoLiberal]

Down to a 4 point margin!


Wilson
Mark Pody   Republican   3,366   51.64%
Mary Alice Carfi   Democratic   3,152   48.36%
Totals
Mark Pody   Republican   5,715   52.01%
Mary Alice Carfi   Democratic   5,273   47.99%

4 precincts left in Wilson county.

[windjammer]

Hahahahaha what the f***

[Brittain33]

IS SHE ABOUT TO DO IT?

lol

Y'all still think I'm a Republican?

Why do you think people might doubt your progressive credentials, LimousineLiberal?

Tip: when I used to concern troll on Free Republic 15 years ago, I didn't post as "RightWingNutjob" because that might have undermined my case.

[LimoLiberal]

The guy that's only winning by 4 points in a Trump +50 district isn't a nobody... he's the state representative for parts of the district. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_Pody

What is happening.

[Virginiá]

The guy that's only winning by 4 points in a Trump +50 district isn't a nobody... he's the state representative for parts of the district. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_Pody

What is happening.

I'm not sure. You should contact some of your friends on RRH and get back to us

[LimoLiberal]

The guy that's only winning by 4 points in a Trump +50 district isn't a nobody... he's the state representative for parts of the district. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_Pody

What is happening.

I'm not sure. You should contact some of your friends on RRH and get back to us.

I have never been on RRH in my life. I don't know what proof you want or need, but I am not some RRH guy posing as a democrat.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Anyone seeing anything for MS Senate 49? I know it's a R v R v R race but still would like to know the result.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Tennessee Senate District 17
View County Breakdown
Candidate   Party   Votes   %
Mark Pody   Republican   5,855   51.81%
Mary Alice Carfi   Democratic   5,445   48.19%

2 precincts left

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

FINAL RESULTS:

Tennessee Senate District 17
View County Breakdown
Candidate   Party   Votes   %
Mark Pody   Republican   5,990   51.32%
Mary Alice Carfi   Democratic   5,682   48.68%

[Strudelcutie4427]

Tennessee Senate District 17
View County Breakdown
Candidate   Party   Votes   %
Mark Pody   Republican   5,855   51.81%
Mary Alice Carfi   Democratic   5,445   48.19%

2 precincts left

Pody wins but he was an awful candidate

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Anyone seeing anything for MS Senate 49? I know it's a R v R v R race but still would like to know the result.

[DINGO Joe]

Anyone seeing anything for MS Senate 49? I know it's a R v R v R race but still would like to know the result.

You'll know after they fire up the mimeograph machines and mail the results in to Jackson.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Compare the difference here. Florida Democrat, Trump +11 district, loses by 20. Tennessee Democrat, Trump +44 district, loses by just 2. Florida Democrats, please disband. Nelson and the Safe D district congresspeople can be independents.

[PoliticalShelter]

How did Tennessee democrats manage to over perform so much.

The only other place I'm aware of with these insane swings is Oklahoma but I don't think the TN GOP is quite in the same mess the OK GOP is in.

[Strudelcutie4427]

How did Tennessee democrats manage to over perform so much.

The only other place I'm aware of with these insane swings is Oklahoma but I don't think the TN GOP is quite in the same mess the OK GOP is in.

The republican was another nutty “I’m on a mission from God” type claiming it’s his life’s mission to stamp out gay marriage. That battles over, focus on the economy

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Compare the difference here. Florida Democrat, Trump +11 district, loses by 20. Tennessee Democrat, Trump +44 district, loses by just 2. Florida Democrats, please disband. Nelson and the Safe D district congresspeople can be independents.

It's not the Democratic label being toxic. It's about the idiots down there running people like an ex-convict or a Venezuelan national and a Missouri resident for winnable races and punting completely without a fight.

Well it's not like the Republicans are much better, the governor is a Medicare Fraudster. I honestly think it's something so wrong with the party itself that disbanding the party is the only remedy.