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November 22, 2017, 02:29:58 am
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News: Election 2018 predictions for US Senate are now open!.

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| | |-+  State Legislature Special Election Mega Thread
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Author Topic: State Legislature Special Election Mega Thread  (Read 32278 times)
Oryxslayer
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« Reply #425 on: September 12, 2017, 08:39:12 pm »
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Checking Ballotopdia Zyzz gives us:

https://cdn.ballotpedia.org/images/9/9e/OK_HD_028.JPG

OK HD 28

https://cdn.ballotpedia.org/images/6/6c/OK_SD_44.JPG

OK SD 44

https://cdn.ballotpedia.org/images/8/88/OK_HD_075.JPG

OK HD 75

https://cdn.ballotpedia.org/images/8/86/OK_HD_046.JPG

OK HD 46, which was tonight.

They all appear to be relatively close to the cities, and are at least anchored by an urban /suburban core. Even HD 28 which dems barely lost is close to Oklahoma City.
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« Reply #426 on: September 12, 2017, 08:49:51 pm »
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Apparently Rosecrants lost OK HD 46 in 2016 with 39.6% of the vote, so tonight's result reflects a 20.8% swing in favor of Democrats.
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« Reply #427 on: September 12, 2017, 08:51:43 pm »
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Apparently Rosecrants lost OK HD 46 in 2016 with 39.6% of the vote, so tonight's result reflects a 20.8% swing in favor of Democrats.

With those kinds of swings, I'd say Democrats have a nonzero chance of taking the Governor's mansion next year.
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« Reply #428 on: September 12, 2017, 08:55:42 pm »
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Honestly, what could kill the GOP next year on the state level is lack of turnout among the base. We've already seen that in other state legislature special elections (the one I can think of off the top of my head is Pellegrino in NY), and if the trend continues you could start seeing 10-15 point swings.

NH tonight is also kinda reassuring because even though Clinton's numbers really dropped off from Obama in 2012, the Dem candidate still won with a similar margin to Obama. That might be taking too much analysis out of the result, but basically it could mean that the large swings to Trump in formerly Dem districts isn't permanent.
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« Reply #429 on: September 12, 2017, 09:14:02 pm »
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House District 102 Special Election
100% OF PRECINCTS REPORTING
    Missy McGee (I)   1,475   45% RUNOFF
    Kathryn Rehner (I)   807   24% RUNOFF
    Casey Mercier (I)   702   21%
    Cory Ferraez (I)   313   9%

------------

Next Election:

September 26, 2017

Florida State Senate District 40   
Florida House of Representatives District 116   
New Hampshire House of Representatives District Rockingham 4   
South Carolina House of Representatives District 31   


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« Reply #430 on: September 12, 2017, 09:47:29 pm »
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Apparently Rosecrants lost OK HD 46 in 2016 with 39.6% of the vote, so tonight's result reflects a 20.8% swing in favor of Democrats.

With those kinds of swings, I'd say Democrats have a nonzero chance of taking the Governor's mansion next year.

And (if there is one, I kind of hope the nomination is stalled until at least January), might the Bridenstine Special Election be competitive?
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« Reply #431 on: September 12, 2017, 09:50:13 pm »
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Great news tonight! Smiley
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« Reply #432 on: September 12, 2017, 11:25:13 pm »
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Next Election:

September 26, 2017

Florida State Senate District 40   
Florida House of Representatives District 116   
New Hampshire House of Representatives District Rockingham 4   
South Carolina House of Representatives District 31   

For reference:

FL SD 40 went Clinton 58 - 40 in 2016.

FL HD 116 went Clinton 51 - 46 in 2016 and Romney 55 - 44 in 2012.

NH HD Rockingham-4 went Trump 59 - 36 in 2016 and Romney 60 - 39 in 2012.

SC HD 31 went Clinton 72 - 24 in 2016 and Obama 79 - 20 in 2012.
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« Reply #433 on: September 13, 2017, 12:29:20 am »
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From 2009-2016, the usual pattern was that Dems would fail colossally in special elections. The talk was about how much (insert R candidate here) outperformed McCain or Romney, or how Ds never turned out for specials. This year's special elections have been an amazing sea change from that pattern.
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« Reply #434 on: September 13, 2017, 03:14:44 am »
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Well, interesting: Democrats won yesterday Trump's districts in New Hampshire and Oklahoma, but got less then a quatrer of votes and barely made a runoff in Mississippi's very swingy (on Presidential level) district. Either Democratic candidate was very bad, or Republican candidates were unusually good (and, in fact, McGee seems to be a Cochran-type pragmatic conservative, not McDaniel-type extremist, who actively participated in campaigns of her predeccessor, who was one of the most pragmatic Republicans in Legislature, and was convincingly elected as mayor of majority-Black city).
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« Reply #435 on: September 13, 2017, 08:03:20 am »
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Well, interesting: Democrats won yesterday Trump's districts in New Hampshire and Oklahoma, but got less then a quatrer of votes and barely made a runoff in Mississippi's very swingy (on Presidential level) district. Either Democratic candidate was very bad, or Republican candidates were unusually good (and, in fact, McGee seems to be a Cochran-type pragmatic conservative, not McDaniel-type extremist, who actively participated in campaigns of her predeccessor, who was one of the most pragmatic Republicans in Legislature, and was convincingly elected as mayor of majority-Black city).

MS jungle primaries are non-partisan, so voters can't tell who the Democrat is and who the Republicans are. If there had been three Democrats and one Republican in the primary, the situation might have been reversed.
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« Reply #436 on: September 13, 2017, 08:04:25 am »
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In case anyone was wondering:



This is misleading, though, because New Hampshire has way more seats in its legislature than any other state to begin with.
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« Reply #437 on: September 13, 2017, 08:11:46 am »
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In case anyone was wondering:



This is misleading, though, because New Hampshire has way more seats in its legislature than any other state to begin with.

What is sad and pathetic is that these are only the TOP state losses.  Obama wiped out Democrats the way Eisenhower wiped out Republicans in 1958.  It took Republicans until 1994 to even be competitive again at the state and local level.
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« Reply #438 on: September 13, 2017, 09:08:23 am »
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Here are some charts that show a growing trend that should worry Republicans:



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« Reply #439 on: September 13, 2017, 11:01:39 am »
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In case anyone was wondering:



This is misleading, though, because New Hampshire has way more seats in its legislature than any other state to begin with.

What is sad and pathetic is that these are only the TOP state losses.  Obama wiped out Democrats the way Eisenhower wiped out Republicans in 1958.  It took Republicans until 1994 to even be competitive again at the state and local level.

The flips of southern legislatures was, long term, an inevitability that preceded Obama. Tennessee, Oklahoma and Mississippi were already close in 2008.

1958 was a generational wipeout, rather than structural issues coming home to roost a la 2010
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« Reply #440 on: September 13, 2017, 11:44:47 am »
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Check out a recap of last night's results HERE: https://ready2vote.com/blog/democrats-retake-momentum-after-two-special-election-victories

Also Democrats are already prepping for their next special election opportunities 2 weeks from now on Sept. 26th.
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« Reply #441 on: September 13, 2017, 12:10:02 pm »
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In case anyone was wondering:



This is misleading, though, because New Hampshire has way more seats in its legislature than any other state to begin with.

What is sad and pathetic is that these are only the TOP state losses.  Obama wiped out Democrats the way Eisenhower wiped out Republicans in 1958.  It took Republicans until 1994 to even be competitive again at the state and local level.

The flips of southern legislatures was, long term, an inevitability that preceded Obama. Tennessee, Oklahoma and Mississippi were already close in 2008.

1958 was a generational wipeout, rather than structural issues coming home to roost a la 2010

I wasn't just the southern legislatures in 2010.  It was "blue" states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin and swing ones like Ohio and North Carolina where Dems also got killed.
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« Reply #442 on: September 14, 2017, 03:45:18 pm »
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WULFRIC PROJECTION: CHARLIE ST. CLAIR WINS NH SPECIAL ELECTION

Charlie St. Clair (D): 839 (57.1%)
Steve Whalley (R): 629 (42.9%)

5/7 in

Thank God.
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« Reply #443 on: September 16, 2017, 06:55:43 pm »
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http://www.stltoday.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/jeffco-legislator-mccaherty-resigns-focuses-on-county-exec-race/article_46a67ae4-b40a-5279-a8a1-54637af9644c.html

New special election in northern Jefferson County/South St. Louis County in Missouri HD 97.

This is a potentially competitive seat, as Democrats used to be very competitive here before 2014. For example, the 2012 result:



Should be a decent test of whether Trump's base is holding together and turning out, or whether people are returning to the Democrats.
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« Reply #444 on: September 16, 2017, 07:10:00 pm »
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Missouri HD 97 went 43 for Obama and 55 for Romney in 2012 and 33 for Clinton and 61 for Trump in 2016. If you are looking for "Trump Democrats", this is where you will find them.
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« Reply #445 on: September 17, 2017, 11:25:01 am »
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Two days ago was the filing deadline in Georgia's 6th Senate district.
It is a suburban district that voted: 55-40 Clinton and 52-48 R in 2016.

Three Democrats (including the 2016 nominee) and five Republicans filed. Jungle Primary is on Nov 7 and a runoff would be on Dec 5. If no clear frontrunner appears on the Republican site maybe two Dems will make it to the runoff
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« Reply #446 on: September 18, 2017, 08:24:51 am »
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Two days ago was the filing deadline in Georgia's 6th Senate district.
It is a suburban district that voted: 55-40 Clinton and 52-48 R in 2016.

Three Democrats (including the 2016 nominee) and five Republicans filed. Jungle Primary is on Nov 7 and a runoff would be on Dec 5. If no clear frontrunner appears on the Republican site maybe two Dems will make it to the runoff

I saw that. If Democrats win this State Senate seat the GOP would barely have a 2/3rds majority in the State Senate. And Democrats would have more than 18 seats for the first time in five years. 17 seats was an all time low for Democrats.
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« Reply #447 on: September 19, 2017, 08:55:59 am »
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Today we have a GOP primary for NH-HD-Hillsborough-15, it's a 52.66-42.88 Trump seat. The winner of the primary will face school board member Erika Connors (D) in the general election on Nov. 7th where Connors would seem to be a slight favorite if this special election environment remains a D+13 swing (in New Hampshire at least).
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« Reply #448 on: September 19, 2017, 09:19:17 pm »
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Quote
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Albert MacArthur wins @NHHouseofReps GOP primary over Andy Parent, 400-320, general is 11/7 #nhpolitics via @jdistaso
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« Reply #449 on: September 19, 2017, 10:13:31 pm »
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Said recount did not significantly change the results of the election: http://sos.nh.gov/nhsos_content.aspx?id=8589968830
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https://tengaged.com/user/JasonEldridge

'18 Gov. Ratings: https://tinyurl.com/h35xfkr (10/9: AZ: Lean R --> Strong Lean R)
'17/'18 Senate Ratings: http://tinyurl.com/yb7sxe9a (11/14: AL: Lean R --> Toss-Up)
'18 House Rating: Lean R (11/7: Strong Lean R -> Lean R)
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