State Legislature Special Election Mega Thread
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Author Topic: State Legislature Special Election Mega Thread  (Read 174243 times)
Mr.Phips
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« Reply #425 on: September 13, 2017, 08:11:46 AM »


This is misleading, though, because New Hampshire has way more seats in its legislature than any other state to begin with.

What is sad and pathetic is that these are only the TOP state losses.  Obama wiped out Democrats the way Eisenhower wiped out Republicans in 1958.  It took Republicans until 1994 to even be competitive again at the state and local level.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #426 on: September 13, 2017, 09:08:23 AM »

Here are some charts that show a growing trend that should worry Republicans:



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KingSweden
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« Reply #427 on: September 13, 2017, 11:01:39 AM »


This is misleading, though, because New Hampshire has way more seats in its legislature than any other state to begin with.

What is sad and pathetic is that these are only the TOP state losses.  Obama wiped out Democrats the way Eisenhower wiped out Republicans in 1958.  It took Republicans until 1994 to even be competitive again at the state and local level.

The flips of southern legislatures was, long term, an inevitability that preceded Obama. Tennessee, Oklahoma and Mississippi were already close in 2008.

1958 was a generational wipeout, rather than structural issues coming home to roost a la 2010
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mds32
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« Reply #428 on: September 13, 2017, 11:44:47 AM »

Check out a recap of last night's results HERE: https://ready2vote.com/blog/democrats-retake-momentum-after-two-special-election-victories

Also Democrats are already prepping for their next special election opportunities 2 weeks from now on Sept. 26th.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #429 on: September 13, 2017, 12:10:02 PM »


This is misleading, though, because New Hampshire has way more seats in its legislature than any other state to begin with.

What is sad and pathetic is that these are only the TOP state losses.  Obama wiped out Democrats the way Eisenhower wiped out Republicans in 1958.  It took Republicans until 1994 to even be competitive again at the state and local level.

The flips of southern legislatures was, long term, an inevitability that preceded Obama. Tennessee, Oklahoma and Mississippi were already close in 2008.

1958 was a generational wipeout, rather than structural issues coming home to roost a la 2010

I wasn't just the southern legislatures in 2010.  It was "blue" states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin and swing ones like Ohio and North Carolina where Dems also got killed.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #430 on: September 16, 2017, 06:55:43 PM »

http://www.stltoday.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/jeffco-legislator-mccaherty-resigns-focuses-on-county-exec-race/article_46a67ae4-b40a-5279-a8a1-54637af9644c.html

New special election in northern Jefferson County/South St. Louis County in Missouri HD 97.

This is a potentially competitive seat, as Democrats used to be very competitive here before 2014. For example, the 2012 result:



Should be a decent test of whether Trump's base is holding together and turning out, or whether people are returning to the Democrats.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #431 on: September 16, 2017, 07:10:00 PM »

Missouri HD 97 went 43 for Obama and 55 for Romney in 2012 and 33 for Clinton and 61 for Trump in 2016. If you are looking for "Trump Democrats", this is where you will find them.
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kph14
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« Reply #432 on: September 17, 2017, 11:25:01 AM »

Two days ago was the filing deadline in Georgia's 6th Senate district.
It is a suburban district that voted: 55-40 Clinton and 52-48 R in 2016.

Three Democrats (including the 2016 nominee) and five Republicans filed. Jungle Primary is on Nov 7 and a runoff would be on Dec 5. If no clear frontrunner appears on the Republican site maybe two Dems will make it to the runoff
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mds32
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« Reply #433 on: September 18, 2017, 08:24:51 AM »

Two days ago was the filing deadline in Georgia's 6th Senate district.
It is a suburban district that voted: 55-40 Clinton and 52-48 R in 2016.

Three Democrats (including the 2016 nominee) and five Republicans filed. Jungle Primary is on Nov 7 and a runoff would be on Dec 5. If no clear frontrunner appears on the Republican site maybe two Dems will make it to the runoff

I saw that. If Democrats win this State Senate seat the GOP would barely have a 2/3rds majority in the State Senate. And Democrats would have more than 18 seats for the first time in five years. 17 seats was an all time low for Democrats.
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mds32
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« Reply #434 on: September 19, 2017, 08:55:59 AM »

Today we have a GOP primary for NH-HD-Hillsborough-15, it's a 52.66-42.88 Trump seat. The winner of the primary will face school board member Erika Connors (D) in the general election on Nov. 7th where Connors would seem to be a slight favorite if this special election environment remains a D+13 swing (in New Hampshire at least).
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #435 on: September 19, 2017, 09:19:17 PM »

Quote
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« Reply #436 on: September 19, 2017, 10:13:31 PM »


Said recount did not significantly change the results of the election: http://sos.nh.gov/nhsos_content.aspx?id=8589968830
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Ebsy
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« Reply #437 on: September 21, 2017, 06:59:16 PM »

https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/910973381859856384

Dem pollster Myers Research & Strategic Services gives Dem Dhingra 55-41 lead in Nov race for control of WA Senate
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #438 on: September 22, 2017, 12:09:54 AM »

https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/910973381859856384

Dem pollster Myers Research & Strategic Services gives Dem Dhingra 55-41 lead in Nov race for control of WA Senate

Rather natural. It's difficult (though - theoretically possible) to imagine area, which was so anti-Trump and strongly moving left, among Republican-held. Even Litzow in neighbouring district couldn't hold on....
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GlobeSoc
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« Reply #439 on: September 22, 2017, 08:07:20 AM »

https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/910973381859856384

Dem pollster Myers Research & Strategic Services gives Dem Dhingra 55-41 lead in Nov race for control of WA Senate

A wholesome, tax cutting centrist.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #440 on: September 26, 2017, 03:42:02 PM »

The two races in Florida should be very interesting to watch tonight. Both are Clinton seats where Republicans won downballot in 2016.
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Holmes
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« Reply #441 on: September 26, 2017, 03:50:15 PM »

The two races in Florida should be very interesting to watch tonight. Both are Clinton seats where Republicans won downballot in 2016.

They might give some insight on FL-27 and FL-26 for next year.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #442 on: September 26, 2017, 04:33:24 PM »


Next Election:

September 26, 2017

Florida State Senate District 40   
Florida House of Representatives District 116   
New Hampshire House of Representatives District Rockingham 4   
South Carolina House of Representatives District 31   

Results Pages for tonight:

Florida: http://enight.elections.myflorida.com/Special/
South Carolina: https://www.scvotes.org/state-house-representatives-district-31-special-election

Follow https://twitter.com/WMUR9 for NH results.

Polls close at 7 EST.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #443 on: September 26, 2017, 06:16:58 PM »

Diaz leading by 8 points. Lol Florida Dems are trash
Just the early votes so far, which he was expected to win. He is still probably going to win, but will likely get closer.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #444 on: September 26, 2017, 06:20:06 PM »
« Edited: September 26, 2017, 06:22:16 PM by Mr.Phips »

Diaz leading by 8 points. Lol Florida Dems are trash
Just the early votes so far, which he was expected to win. He is still probably going to win, but will likely get closer.

The GOP had like a one point edge in the early vote, which means the Dem is also losing independents by a wide margin. If Dems can't win a seat Hillary won by 20 points when Trump is President with a 35% approval rating, they may as well give up in Florida.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #445 on: September 26, 2017, 06:22:56 PM »

Not sure what is confusing about heavily Cuban seats continuing to vote Republican downballot. Taddeo  is almost certainly going to improve on the 2016 result and if Democrats can keep improving, they will start winning these seats. A lot of mouth breathers on this forum have rather unrealistic expectations, honestly.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #446 on: September 26, 2017, 06:28:05 PM »

State Senator, District 40
General
Compare All Counties
Compare by County
Candidate   Party   Votes Received   
Jose Felix Diaz   REP   14,668   
52.71%
Annette Taddeo   DEM   12,480   
44.85%
Christian "He-Man" Schlaerth   NPA   678   
2.44%
27,826   Total

State Representative, District 116
General
Compare All Counties
Compare by County
Candidate   Party   Votes Received   
Daniel Anthony Perez   REP   6,344   
67.6%
Gabriela Mayaudon   DEM   3,040   
32.4%
9,384   Total
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Ebsy
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« Reply #447 on: September 26, 2017, 06:29:24 PM »

Not sure what is confusing about heavily Cuban seats continuing to vote Republican downballot. Taddeo  is almost certainly going to improve on the 2016 result and if Democrats can keep improving, they will start winning these seats. A lot of mouth breathers on this forum have rather unrealistic expectations, honestly.

Homeboy Rubio only won this seat by 3 points. It voted five points to the left statewide of the Senate result. Crist won it in 2014. It's really embarrassing

I think what is more embarrassing is refusing the wait for the final result before deluging this thread with useless word vomit.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #448 on: September 26, 2017, 06:31:38 PM »



50-48 with election day vote still out.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #449 on: September 26, 2017, 06:34:41 PM »

https://twitter.com/KlandriganUL/status/912821494698381314

Kevin Landrigan‏ @KlandriganUL  3m
1st returns NH House special: Dem Kari Lerner edges ex-Rep. James Headd, 310-303 in Chester but she's a Realtor in her hometown. #nhpolitics

I will see if I can scare up precinct results from 2016 for this precinct.
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