State Legislature Special Election Mega Thread

[Brittain33]

Why was the Dem performance so poor in the Florida House race yesterday? Was it because Diaz had his machine to pull out voters for the Senate race in his old district?

[KingSweden]

Why was the Dem performance so poor in the Florida House race yesterday? Was it because Diaz had his machine to pull out voters for the Senate race in his old district?

Probably. I also think the Dem candidate was mediocre, with most of her political experience being in Venezuela (where she was in Congress I believe)

[mds32]

Next competitive special election:

https://ready2vote.com/special-elections

Oct. 3rd
MS-HD-102 Runoff
Missy McGee (R)
Kathryn Rehner (D)

This seat barely went to Trump. Let's see what happens!

[mds32]

Tomorrow we have the runoff election for MS-HD-102

[Ebsy]

Will be a primary election in SD 26 on the day of the Moore-Jones election. This has been an uncontested seat for a long time.

[mds32]

Will be a primary election in SD 26 on the day of the Moore-Jones election. This has been an uncontested seat for a long time.

Its going to be a Democratic Primary and it is a very Democratic seat, this could help turnout a few more Jones voters. If polls started showing the U.S. Senate races within 51-49 range then this election could turnout more people than expected.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Results Page for Tonight: http://www.wdam.com/story/36311552/house-dist-102-run-off-election

Polls close at 8 EST, but expect to wait an hour or more before seeing substantial results.

[Dr. Arch]

Results Page for Tonight: http://www.wdam.com/story/36311552/house-dist-102-run-off-election

Polls close at 8 EST, but expect to wait an hour or more before seeing substantial results.

Is it already over? Did fewer than 100 people vote?

[The Other Castro]

10/11 precincts reporting:

McGee - 1,891, 68.32%
Rehner - 873, 31.54%

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

10/11 precincts reporting:

McGee - 1,891, 68.32%
Rehner - 873, 31.54%

Where are you seeing this?

[Ebsy]

Disappointing result in Mississippi, but you can't win them all.

[The Other Castro]

10/11 precincts reporting:

McGee - 1,891, 68.32%
Rehner - 873, 31.54%

Where are you seeing this?

From a WDAM reporter on Twitter. Final unofficial results, including absentees:

McGee - 2,093 - 68%
Rehner - 986 - 32%

https://twitter.com/_MelissaEgan/status/915392537497624576

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

What a disappointing performance. Utterly disgusted with the MS democratic party.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Next week, Democrats get to elect a Republican to Florida House District 44.

[The Other Castro]

What a disappointing performance. Utterly disgusted with the MS democratic party.

I mean, the 2015 results were 73-27 so it's not horrible.

[KingSweden]

What a disappointing performance. Utterly disgusted with the MS democratic party.

I mean, the 2015 results were 73-27 so it's not horrible.

10 point swing

[smoltchanov]

What a disappointing performance. Utterly disgusted with the MS democratic party.

I mean, the 2015 results were 73-27 so it's not horrible.

And Presidential results were only 1% in Trump favor. So Rehner underperformed mightily compared to that. She could not even equal Black percentage in the district (about 36) - rarity in Mississippi, and especially - in a district where (as seen from 2016 results) there are whites  ready to vote for Democratic candidates (again - relatively rare thing in this state)

[Mr.Phips]

What a disappointing performance. Utterly disgusted with the MS democratic party.

I mean, the 2015 results were 73-27 so it's not horrible.

And Presidential results were only 1% in Trump favor. So Rehner underperformed mightily compared to that. She could not even equal Black percentage in the district (about 36) - rarity in Mississippi, and especially - in a district where (as seen from 2016 results) there are whites  ready to vote for Democratic candidates (again - relatively rare thing in this state)

Mississippi is one of many states where there is simply no Democratic party or organisation to speak of.

[smoltchanov]

What a disappointing performance. Utterly disgusted with the MS democratic party.

I mean, the 2015 results were 73-27 so it's not horrible.

And Presidential results were only 1% in Trump favor. So Rehner underperformed mightily compared to that. She could not even equal Black percentage in the district (about 36) - rarity in Mississippi, and especially - in a district where (as seen from 2016 results) there are whites  ready to vote for Democratic candidates (again - relatively rare thing in this state)

Mississippi is one of many states where there is simply no Democratic party or organisation to speak of.

Only 10 years ago Democrats still had a majority in Legislature there... Of course - a lot of these Democrats were conservatives (what's only natural for conservative state), but still - .....

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Tonight is the special election in Florida House District 44. Polls close at 7 PM ET. Results page here: http://enight.elections.myflorida.com/Offices/StateRepresentative/

Expect a republican victory. There will also be a republican primary for House District 58.

[Mr.Phips]

What a disappointing performance. Utterly disgusted with the MS democratic party.

I mean, the 2015 results were 73-27 so it's not horrible.

And Presidential results were only 1% in Trump favor. So Rehner underperformed mightily compared to that. She could not even equal Black percentage in the district (about 36) - rarity in Mississippi, and especially - in a district where (as seen from 2016 results) there are whites  ready to vote for Democratic candidates (again - relatively rare thing in this state)

Mississippi is one of many states where there is simply no Democratic party or organisation to speak of.

Only 10 years ago Democrats still had a majority in Legislature there... Of course - a lot of these Democrats were conservatives (what's only natural for conservative state), but still - .....

Usually, once Democrats lose control of a legislature in a state, it is very difficult if not impossible to pull themselves back up due to gerrymandering and loss of funding.  See Alabama, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Indiana, Ohio, Michigan, etc.

[Ebsy]

It would be quite a surprise if Democrats manage to win tonight in Florida.

[Virginiá]

Usually, once Democrats lose control of a legislature in a state, it is very difficult if not impossible to pull themselves back up due to gerrymandering and loss of funding.  See Alabama, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Indiana, Ohio, Michigan, etc.

I wouldn't say that is indicative of all states Democrats control, just the ones where their majorities were already on tenuous ground. There was really just no way Democrats could hold on in Mississippi or Alabama, for instance. Their time was over in those states long before it actually manifested, but much like a person with savings can live temporarily with no income, they had entrenched power that kept them going until a steady stream of retirements, party switches, lost elections and finally Obama's tenure brought them down. States like Wisconsin and Michigan, though, those seem like states Democrats really should be much more competitive in. Hopefully the partisan gerrymandering SCOTUS case will help change their situation there.

[Ebsy]

Information I have rounded up on HD 44 tonight:

The Republican candidate is Robert “Bobby O” Olszewski. The Democrat is Eddy Dominguez, who will appear as Paul Chandler on some ballots. Democrats appear to have ponied up some money and made a late push for the early vote and election day GOTV, but Republicans have outspent Democrats by a lot and have a big lead in the 2,117 early votes. Republicans account for 1,114 (53%) while Democrats account for 708 (33%). There are another 5,893 absentee ballots cast, for which we do not have partisanship data, and then however many people vote on election day, which should be heavily democratic. Polls close in an hour and a half at 7 EDT.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

As a reminder, in the last florida special two weeks ago, the Republican candidate won the first wave of the early vote by high single digits, and continued to lead in the overall tally until the election day votes started coming in. Don't panic until it's actually justified to do so.