State Legislature Special Election Mega Thread

[Kamala]

Please explain

If one party wins a seat 65% to 35%

In the next election the same party wins 55% to 45%

Is that a 10% or a 20% swing?

For what it is worth Wikipedia defines the swing as:

One party swing (in percentage points) = Percentage of vote (current election) – Percentage of vote (previous election).  In my example the swing would have been -10%.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swing_(politics)

Each party swing 10% (in opposite directions) but the margin swing is 20%.

[Gustaf]

Please explain

If one party wins a seat 65% to 35%

In the next election the same party wins 55% to 45%

Is that a 10% or a 20% swing?

For what it is worth Wikipedia defines the swing as:

One party swing (in percentage points) = Percentage of vote (current election) – Percentage of vote (previous election).  In my example the swing would have been -10%.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swing_(politics)

Each party swing 10% (in opposite directions) but the margin swing is 20%.

They're perfectly equivalent if there are always only 2 parties. They will differ when 3rd parties exist and vary in strength between elections. Usually most people would then prefer the margin swing as being more reflective.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Today is the special election in Pennsylvania 35. Polls close at 8 ET. Results here: http://www.electionreturns.pa.gov

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

The Democrat will probably win.

[kph14]

In addition, there is a statewide ballot measure in Oregon today.

The Democrats have campaigned for a yes, while the Republicans support a no. Could be a tight result

https://ballotpedia.org/Oregon_Measure_101,_Healthcare_Insurance_Premiums_Tax_for_Medicaid_Referendum_(January_2018)

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

In addition, there is a statewide ballot measure in Oregon today.

The Democrats have campaigned for a yes, while the Republicans support a no. Could be a tight result

https://ballotpedia.org/Oregon_Measure_101,_Healthcare_Insurance_Premiums_Tax_for_Medicaid_Referendum_(January_2018)

How much of a tax are we talking about here?

[kph14]

In addition, there is a statewide ballot measure in Oregon today.

The Democrats have campaigned for a yes, while the Republicans support a no. Could be a tight result

https://ballotpedia.org/Oregon_Measure_101,_Healthcare_Insurance_Premiums_Tax_for_Medicaid_Referendum_(January_2018)

How much of a tax are we talking about here?

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[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Results for Oregon will be here (11 ET close): http://results.oregonvotes.gov/

There will apparently also be a livestream at https://www.facebook.com/OregonSecState/?hc_ref=ARSVCuLGcgIQBpsQYSpXH0GDUPP3VJKn06l59PdkKJcAP-RefhtVhpOgwoGZyfW3awQ , starting at 10:45 ET.

[kph14]

Some turnout reports for Oregon

Percent of Ballots Returned by 23/01: 32.7%
Among registered Democrats: 41.2%
Among registered Republicans: 40.1%
Among nonaffiliated voters: 17.0%

Turnout now 5 percentage points lower compared to the day before the 2016 presidential primary but the number of returned ballots is still higher, as Oregon has added a lot of nonaffiliated voters through automatic voter registration.

[kph14]

Some turnout reports for Oregon

Percent of Ballots Returned by 23/01: 32.7%
Among registered Democrats: 41.2%
Among registered Republicans: 40.1%
Among nonaffiliated voters: 17.0%

Turnout now 5 percentage points lower compared to the day before the 2016 presidential primary but the number of returned ballots is still higher, as Oregon added a lot nonaffiliated voters through automatic voter registration.

45.6% of all returned ballots are from registered Democrats
32.4% of all returned ballots are from registered Republicans
33.0% of all returned ballots are from nonaffiliated or minor party voters

Looks good for the Yes campaign

[Gass3268]

Allegheny County has a map

[LimoLiberal]

I have a gut feeling the Republican is going to win, or make it a close-ish race

[Horus]

I have a gut feeling the Republican is going to win, or make it a close-ish race

[Dr. Arch]

I have a gut feeling the Republican is going to win, or make it a close-ish race

By rule of reverse-banshee, the Democrat is winning by a landslide then?

[Gass3268]

I have a gut feeling the Republican is going to win, or make it a close-ish race

By rule of reverse-banshee, the Democrat is winning by a landslide then?

Yup, first 11.9% reported:

Davis 78.53% 373
Walker-Montgomery 21.47% 102

[LimoLiberal]

I have a gut feeling the Republican is going to win, or make it a close-ish race

By rule of reverse-banshee, the Democrat is winning by a landslide then?

Welp, first results don't hold up my gut.


Representative in the General Assembly 35TH DISTRICT
Dem Austin Davis 78.53% 373
Rep Fawn Walker-Montgomery 21.47% 102

[Oryxslayer]

I have a gut feeling the Republican is going to win, or make it a close-ish race

More rain in NOVA I presume?

[Gass3268]

I have a gut feeling the Republican is going to win, or make it a close-ish race

More rain in NOVA I presume?

Don't forget about that Alabama rain!

[Ebsy]

This is going to be a slaughter:

Clairton Ward 1 District 1
Davis (Dem 2018): 88.9%
Clinton (Dem 2016): 58.3%

[Gass3268]

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This bodes well for at least getting a competative PA-18.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Representative in the General Assembly
35th Legislative District County Breakdown
Davis, Austin
(DEM)
77.45%
    Votes: 1,470
Walker-Montgomery, Fawn
(REP)
22.55%
    Votes: 428

[Holmes]

This is a massacre. Hopefully it does spill over to PA-18.

[Dr. Arch]

lol, I think the Republican candidate won't even clear a quarter of the vote at this rate.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

55% in:

Representative in the General Assembly
35th Legislative District County Breakdown
Davis, Austin
(DEM)
76.59%
    Votes: 1,669
Walker-Montgomery, Fawn
(REP)
23.41%
    Votes: 510

[LimoLiberal]

Walker-Montgomery has only won one precinct out of 74 reporting.