State Legislature Special Election Mega Thread

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Just throwing more money at a race doesn't necessarily help. Just ask Meg Whitman or Jeb Bush.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

There's about to be two in Minnesota: http://kstp.com/news/dayton-to-call-special-election-after-lawmaker-resignation/4680052/p

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Pierce County has almost all reported: http://www.co.pierce.wi.us/County%20Clerk/PDF%20Files/Preliminary%20Results%20Spec%20Dist%2010.pdf

Schachtner landslide.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Adding Pierce County to Wulfric's tally gives us:

Jarchow 1842
Schachtner 2384
Corriea 52

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Pierce County is all in:

Jarchow 459
Schachtner 1,238
Corriea 19

Over 72% for Schachtner. Hillary won that part of the country with only like 48%.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Unfortunately St. Croix County does not appear to be reporting yet.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

St. Croix County is in. 4918 for Jarchow, 6156 for Schachtner.

Decimated.

It's over.

D+1

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Any results from Iowa yet?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Could this possibly mean that the new lieutenant governor of Minnesota's former district could also be up for grabs?

No, that district is completely different. That's more comparable to that Assembly district northwest of Milwaukee also up tonight.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Could this possibly mean that the new lieutenant governor of Minnesota's former district could also be up for grabs?

No, that district is completely different. That's more comparable to that Assembly district northwest of Milwaukee also up tonight.

Ah, thanks.

Even demographically comparable too in fact (heavily German exurbs).

Even Lori Swanson couldn't win it in 2014.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Although Minnesota House district 23B might be worth a look at now as a possibly up for grabs district.

Also means the DFL probably doesn't need to worry too much about Senate district 54 on the same night (which actually even borders that Wisconsin seat.)

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I have a gut feeling the Republican is going to win, or make it a close-ish race

So yeah, neither of you trust your gut again.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Crosspost from AAD/OWW:

Two in Minnesota on February 12. Both due to legislators resigning over sexual harassment, one from each chamber, one from each party:

House 23B: Previously held by Tony Cornish (R). This district is in southern Minnesota, I'm actually rather familiar with it due to it being around Mankato. Basically a rural district that stretches from the non-Mankato parts of Blue Earth County (some of these towns are effectively Mankato suburbs) and parts of Waseca County (but not Waseca proper) and Watonwan County. Trump won it by 27 points....but Romney only did by 3. And in 2014 it voted for Franken, Walz, Otto and Swanson, and Dayton came damn close. The Democrats have won far harder seats so far. I'm calling it a tossup and am being cautiously optimistic. The DFL candidate is Melissa Wagner, a social worker who lives on a farm in a rural township and actually has the campaign slogan "Let's get things done for rural Minnesota" and a very rural-centric campaign. The Republican candidate, Jeremy Munson, is basically a party operative hack and former chair of the CD-1 GOP. @Antonio V if you're wondering about a working class swing back to the Democrats, this is one seat to watch.

Senate 54: This was previously held by Dan Schoern (DFL) and is located in the southeastern corner of the metro, stretching from some working class riverside suburbs to the Wisconsin border. It might be the only Democratic-held district in the metro Trump won, which he did by a very close margin (about 46-44), and both House seats are held by Republicans. BTW If anyone remembers that speech against the gay marriage ban amendment by that Republican disabled veteran legislator that went viral, he represented one of those seats (the more Democratic one.) On paper, that sounds pretty competitive. In reality, it probably isn't. For one Schoern won by a pretty solid margin in 2016 and he wasn't the incumbent, though he was an incumbent Rep (he won by about 53-46), showing that Hillary lost more than Trump won, and Trump didn't win a very high percentage district wide. The district has also voted for just about all Democrats pre-2016, all DFL candidates won it in 2014, in 2012 Obama won it by about 7 points. This is a good example of a white working class suburban district, but the swing to Trump wasn't as drastic as in rural areas and as noted before wasn't even much of a vote for Trump. This borders that Wisconsin seat the Dems flipped by the way. The most DFL area is the Cottage Grove area and the immediately neighboring working class areas like St. Paul Park and Newport (both of which voted Obama-Obama-Trump), and the parts of South St. Paul in it. This makes up the A seat. The B seat is a bunch of exurban territory stretching to Wisconsin. Though the A seat is currently GOP held, this too appears to be a fluke and if it was open would almost certainly swing back, Hillary also won that part of the district even if by a meager 3 points. The DFL candidate is Karla Bigham, a Washington Coutny Commissioner and former State Rep for the A part of the district (retired in 2010), the GOP Candidate is Denny McNamara, who represented the B district until last year when he retired. I'd call this one Likely D, but the margins are worth watching.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Mother Jones is trying to downplay the special elections for some reason... their article contradicts their title.

https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2018/02/special-elections-suggest-democrats-momentum-might-be-slowing/

My issue with this is the author used selective comparisons that were made solely because it bolstered her point of view:

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She is acting like a 31 point swing is the new normal, and anything less represents a narrowing environment. I think the average swing in legislative special elections was like D+9 to D+11 (obviously it changes from time to time). So of course her argument looks more credible if she compares it to the biggest recent swing-win. That being said, wasn't the FL race a D+12 swing? I recall seeing someone say that the other night. If so, that race certainly does not represent a slowing down of the wave.

Then this:

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Correct me if I'm wrong, but wasn't it a shift of 32 points to the Democrat? She only subtracted 68 from 84. She didn't add the percentage from Clinton's vote share to the Democratic candidate's vote share.


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Honestly, this article sucks. She makes a bold claim and then provides misleading evidence that actually contradicts her claim when corrected.

Semantics over definition of "shift" basically. Or "shift" vs. "swing". I know in the UK "swing" would be "only" 16 points there based on the formula they use.

Still quite a misleading conclusion.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Why is Malloy so unpopular?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

^ So, say, in 1940th or 1950th, Democrats (who absolutely dominated state politics then) still let some Republicans to be elected free? Frankly speaking - i doubt...

The rural counties in the western mountains have always been Republican since the Civil War, like Eastern Tennessee.