State Legislature Special Election Mega Thread

[mds32]

I felt this is probably what needed to be made.

To start it off there are 4 state legislative special elections next week!

May 23rd:

New Hampshire House of Representatives District Hillsborough 44 (R)
New Hampshire House of Representatives District Carroll 6 (R)
New York State Senate District 30 (D)
New York State Assembly District 9 (R)

This is the week I think the GOP may get a wake up call, and it could start before Montana. I think the NH Democratic Party is set to pick up 1/2 House seats up this week due to shear momentum against the GOP nationally alone. The state Democratic Party has been raising money for both Democratic candidates here. The Republican Party in NH has spent only a combined $1700, the Democratic Party has spent $10000. Proving more that the Democrats are energized to take the seats.

The Senate District in NY seems to be an easy hold. The Assembly district looks like it could go the Democrats, given that the Democratic challenger has been crowd sourcing funds.

And the GOP doesn't have high favorability in NY at the moment.

[mds32]

Lol, you are a Democrat now? I agree that these links shouldn't be posted here.

I wouldn't be surprised if Edith DesMarais were to beat Matthew Plache in District 6, or if the Democrats were to win both NH races. This is a state trending away from Republicans.

There is a enough nonsense going on in the state for the seats to flip.

[mds32]

May 30th, 2017

SC-SD-03 (R)
This should be a formality with Richard Cash (R) as the only candidate on the ballot.

SC-HD-84 (R)
This seat is open because Rep. Corley (R) (wife beater to be honest) resigned his seat. It will be a three way race.
Ronnie Young (R)
Jennifer Lariscey (D)
S. Lance Weaver (C)

I don't know the CW on the House race. We will have to wait and see.
 

[mds32]

Thank you!

In fact, there is one other special election occurring this upcoming Saturday.

LA-SD-2 (D) will be holding a special runoff election.

Currently there will be two Democrats facing off for this Safe D seat. The candidates are Warren Harang III (D) and Ed Price (D). I have been going through forums and articles and it would seem that Harang is much more of a DINO. Evidence of this can be seen in the election results, where the lone Republican candidate got 7% of the vote. Instead of consolidating GOP support with one candidate in a 13 candidate field, conservative voters obviously voted for the most conservative Democrat. Ed Price would seem to be the establishment Democratic choice. Harang (D) had 26.5% before the runoff while Price (D) has 22.1%.

[mds32]

TODAY:
Special Elections
NH-HD-Carrol 6th (R)
NH-HD-Hillsborough 44th (R)
NY-SD-40 (D)
NY-AD-09 (R)

New York polls close at 9pm, New Hampshire 7pm ET.

In NY-AD-09 the GOP nominated a Conservative Party member, if they hold the seat the Conservative Party will have two people in the legislature then.

[mds32]

So far this year Republicans have picked up one seat and Democrats have picked up two. So +1 for Democrats in special elections.

[mds32]

I am counting special election wins only in the pickups

[mds32]

Wow a couple thousand dollars could have helped the SCDP pull an upset there. A 7-point swing to the Dems with a 10-3 spending disadvantage? If that was closed up it could have been more like Oklahoma. The SCGOP should be lucky the SC Dems are disorganized.

[mds32]

Wow a couple thousand dollars could have helped the SCDP pull an upset there.

Um. No.

There was literally only $13000 in the race. If she had instead of a 10k to 3k disadvantage a 13k to 10k advantage that 7-point swing could have become a 14-point swing easily

[mds32]

Just throwing more money at a race doesn't necessarily help. Just ask Meg Whitman or Jeb Bush.

Correct, in a low turnout affair however, where more voters can be pushed and motivated to get out then the more $$$ you have the more people you can turnout.

[mds32]

Upcoming races:

June 15

TN-95: Vacant following Mark Lovell's (GOP) resignation.

Julie Byrd Ashworth (DEM)
Kevin Vaughan (GOP)
Robert Schutt (IND)
Jim Tomasik (IND)

The seat was Obama 23, Romney 78 in 2012.

June 20

SC-70

Vacant after Joseph Neal (DEM) passed away.

Wendy Brawley (DEM)
Bill Strickland (GOP)

The seat was Clinton 70, Trump 27 in 2016 and Obama 74, Romney 25 in 2012.

SC-48

Vacant following Ralph Norman's (GOP) resignation to run for SC-05.

Bebs Barron Chorak (DEM)
Bruce Bryant (GOP)

The seat was Clinton 35, Trump 60 in 2016 and Obama 35, Romney 63 in 2012.

None of the above races look to be competitive so it will mostly be interesting to watch the swings.

Actually the Tennessee race is interesting. Not for the Democrat, but for the Independent Robert Schutt who has a surprisingly huge fundraising haul. He could get into the high 20% range with well over $20k for a special election like this.

[mds32]

Upcoming races:

June 15

TN-95: Vacant following Mark Lovell's (GOP) resignation.

Julie Byrd Ashworth (DEM)
Kevin Vaughan (GOP)
Robert Schutt (IND)
Jim Tomasik (IND)

The seat was Obama 23, Romney 78 in 2012.

June 20

SC-70

Vacant after Joseph Neal (DEM) passed away.

Wendy Brawley (DEM)
Bill Strickland (GOP)

The seat was Clinton 70, Trump 27 in 2016 and Obama 74, Romney 25 in 2012.

SC-48

Vacant following Ralph Norman's (GOP) resignation to run for SC-05.

Bebs Barron Chorak (DEM)
Bruce Bryant (GOP)

The seat was Clinton 35, Trump 60 in 2016 and Obama 35, Romney 63 in 2012.

None of the above races look to be competitive so it will mostly be interesting to watch the swings.

Actually the Tennessee race is interesting. Not for the Democrat, but for the Independent Robert Schutt who has a surprisingly huge fundraising haul. He could get into the high 20% range with well over $20k for a special election like this.

Is he going to be a spoiler or draw roughly even numbers on both sides?

Since there is a Libertarian in the race that will take 4% probably I can imagine that he could play spoiler depending on his ideology. I checked out his financial reports, he is up with advertisements.

[mds32]

TN-HD-95 Special Election tonight

Next week:
SC-HD-48 (R) - Safe R Hold
SC-HD-70 (D) - Safe D Hold

[mds32]

Dems got a 12-point swing in that seat.

[mds32]

If we play that average game I imagine Democrats will gain in percentages in SC-HD-48 and lose a little in HD-70.

HD-48:
(R) - 57%
(D) - 43%

HD-70
(D) - 69%
(R) - 31%

[mds32]

Next race is Iowa HD-22 next week on Jun 27, which Trump won 66-30 and Romney 62-37. Democrats don't usually field candidates here and though they nominated Ray Stevens, he failed to file paperwork to appear on the ballot. I think he is running a write in campaign, but don't quote me on that.

GOP: Jon Jacobson
LIB: Bryan Holder
IND: Carol Forristall

Carol Forristall is the widow of the previous holder of the seat, and was defeated handily by Jon Jacobson at the GOP convention.

I wonder if Forristall were to win if she would remain an independent?

[mds32]

IA-HD-82

State Rep. Curt Hanson (D) has died and he is from a 58-37 Trump district. This will be a tough hold for the Iowa Dems and will be a test as to whether the party can be rejuvenated and in fact on the offensive in 2018.

The special is set for Aug. 8th, there are no candidates for the seat yet as both parties have not nominated yet.

https://ballotpedia.org/Curt_Hanson

[mds32]

Next Election:

Senate   OK   44   7/11/17               
House   OK   75   7/11/17

I predict OK-HD-75 is a Tilt D-pickup. This analysis seems to show that Republicans could be in trouble here and Democrats seem to be favored in special elections as of the past 3 years:

https://ready2vote.com/blog/2017/6/8/karen-gaddis-d-the-comeback-candidate-for-team-blue-oklahoma-hd-75

[mds32]

I predict that Democrats will PICKUP OK-SD-44 this Tuesday. If you don't think so look at the financial reports...

Joseph Griffen (R) — $8,201.20 COH

Michael Brooks-Jimenez (D) — $115,071.40 COH

Brooks-Jimenez (D) also had over $150k raised in this period. I seriously doubt the Republicans retain this seat. It looks like the Democrats will increase their Senate caucus to 7 on Tuesday. The seat also is open because Former Senator Shortey (R) had to resign due to a sex scandal.

[mds32]

^ The primary (though both are unopposed) for OK SD-44 is Tuesday, but the general isn't until 9/12.

Nope the general is on Tuesday. Elections in Oklahoma are moved up if there is no primary. There was no primary.

[mds32]

^ The primary (though both are unopposed) for OK SD-44 is Tuesday, but the general isn't until 9/12.

The general is the 11th of July.

https://www.ok.gov/elections/Election_Info/State_Senator_District_44_Special_Election_Info.html

[mds32]

Oklahoma HD 74:

Candidate:
Karen Gaddis (DEM)
Tressa Nunley (GOP)

Looks like the GOP has held this seat since 2000. It went Romney 76, Obama 24 in 2012, and Dale Derby won it 67-33 in 2016. Considering how poorly Clinton likely did in the district, this indicates that there might still be a significant overperformance for Democrats downballot here, but I would not be too optimistic.

Nunley seems to have the better ground game here. I see a ton of signs out for her whereas I only see a couple ones for Gaddis. Then again, we've gotten a lot of Gaddis stuff in the mail so maybe she's focusing more on mailing voters and sending people door-to-door than signs.

I think in the case of the special election upsets that have occurred, or almost upsets as of recent, for the Dems in Oklahoma quietly getting out the voters may be the better move. Also it is important to say that Gaddis led Nunley in fundraising until this final period because Gaddis spent a lot more money.

[mds32]

Next pickup opportunity: MO-HD-50 Michela Skelton (D)

Check out this blog piece on her candidacy where she was interviewed!

https://ready2vote.com/blog/ready2votes-interview-with-democratic-candidate-michela-skelton-missouri-house-district-50

[mds32]

Next up:

July 18: New Hampshire HD Merrimack 18
Kris Schultz (DEM)
Michael P. Feeley (GOP)

Vacant following the resignation of the Democratic incumbent Andrew deTreville, the district went Clinton 59, Trump 37 in 2016 and Obama 61, Romney 38 in 2012. Feeley was the GOP candidate last time around, losing the open seat 56-44 to deTreville. In a favorable year for the GOP I suspect they might have had a chance of an upset here, but their chances look doubtful. Probable Democratic hold. Margins should be interesting.

Here is blog piece for both Schultz and Cavanaugh for the next two NH Specials: https://ready2vote.com/blog/2017/6/26/y5i7f2cf439zcip5frghwke7cagonp

[mds32]

Two elections will occur next week:

Senate   NH   16   7/25/17            
Senate   MA   MDL 4   7/25/17

Mississippi HD 108 as well, a safe GOP district which went 77-23 for the GOP when it was last up in 2015. DailyKos does not have Presidential numbers for Mississippi LDs.

NH Senate 16 is an important swing district. Democrats won 51-49 in 2016, Clinton carried the district 47.69 to Trump's 47.37. Obama lost it to Romney 49-50. Will be the most interesting contest.

Massachusetts MDL 4 is a safe Democratic district that the GOP doesn't normally contest. Last time it was, Dems won it 68-32 in 2012. Obama won it 60-38.5 and Clinton carried it 62-33.

I predict....
MS-HD-108
Kelly (R) 42%
Wilkes (R)30%
Frazier (D) 28%

NH-SD-16
Cavanaugh (D) 53% Boutin (R) 46% Dubrow (L) 1%

MA-SD-MDL4
Friedman (D) 87% Jackson (G) 13%