State Legislature Special Election Mega Thread

[Ebsy]

Big night for team DEM. Two major upsets.

[Ebsy]

64/109 districts reporting (all of Suffolk is in, none of Nassau):
 
Christine Pellegrino (D): 59.26% , 3338 
Thomas A. Gargiulo (R): 40.51% , 2282

MAJOR UPSET ALERT

Holy sh**t. Does this district fall entirely within NY-2?

Yes, I believe so.

[Ebsy]

So far this year Republicans have picked up one seat and Democrats have picked up two. So +1 for Democrats in special elections.

What did Republicans pick up outside a few party switches?

White Democrat was appointed to a position in the governor's office in Louisiana, no Democrat filed to fill his seat, so the election was between two republican. LA-42.

[Ebsy]

2014 Results from SC-84



Obama got 35.1% of the two party vote here in 2012.

[Ebsy]

Ronnie Young (GOP) wins in HD-84, something like 60-37, so a 7 point swing to the Democrats from 2014.

[Ebsy]

2014: GOP + 28.86
2017 Special: GOP +20.65

8 point swing from the last time this seat was contested.

[Ebsy]

Upcoming races:

June 15

TN-95: Vacant following Mark Lovell's (GOP) resignation.

Julie Byrd Ashworth (DEM)
Kevin Vaughan (GOP)
Robert Schutt (IND)
Jim Tomasik (IND)

The seat was Obama 23, Romney 78 in 2012.

June 20

SC-70

Vacant after Joseph Neal (DEM) passed away.

Wendy Brawley (DEM)
Bill Strickland (GOP)

The seat was Clinton 70, Trump 27 in 2016 and Obama 74, Romney 25 in 2012.

SC-48

Vacant following Ralph Norman's (GOP) resignation to run for SC-05.

Bebs Barron Chorak (DEM)
Bruce Bryant (GOP)

The seat was Clinton 35, Trump 60 in 2016 and Obama 35, Romney 63 in 2012.

None of the above races look to be competitive so it will mostly be interesting to watch the swings.

[Ebsy]

Next race is Iowa HD-22 next week on Jun 27, which Trump won 66-30 and Romney 62-37. Democrats don't usually field candidates here and though they nominated Ray Stevens, he failed to file paperwork to appear on the ballot. I think he is running a write in campaign, but don't quote me on that.

GOP: Jon Jacobson
LIB: Bryan Holder
IND: Carol Forristall

Carol Forristall is the widow of the previous holder of the seat, and was defeated handily by Jon Jacobson at the GOP convention.

[Ebsy]

All results are in:

Jon Jacobsen (R) - 1069 (43.90%)
Carol Forristall (I) - 803 (32.98%)
Write-In - 465 (19.10%)
Bryan Jack Holder (L) - 98 (4.02%)

Carol Forristall is actually also a Republican (the widow of the former representative), just failed to get the nod from the party convention.

[Ebsy]

Oklahoma HD 74:

Candidate:
Karen Gaddid (DEM)
Tressa Nunley (GOP)

Looks like the GOP has held this seat since 2000. It went Romney 76, Obama 24 in 2012, and Dale Derby won it 67-33 in 2016. Considering how poorly Clinton likely did in the district, this indicates that there might still be a significant overperformance for Democrats downballot here, but I would not be too optimistic.

[Ebsy]

The NH seat is a safe Democratic seat held by the Democrats.

[Ebsy]

Next up:

July 18: New Hampshire HD Merrimack 18
Kris Schultz (DEM)
Michael P. Feeley (GOP)

Vacant following the resignation of the Democratic incumbent Andrew deTreville, the district went Clinton 59, Trump 37 in 2016 and Obama 61, Romney 38 in 2012. Feeley was the GOP candidate last time around, losing the open seat 56-44 to deTreville. In a favorable year for the GOP I suspect they might have had a chance of an upset here, but their chances look doubtful. Probable Democratic hold. Margins should be interesting.

[Ebsy]

Democrats also won two off-year special elections in 2015, this isn't really surprising at all.

I think this chart from ballotpedia is relevant in regards to your comment:



We're currently at D+3, R-3. Obviously this doesn't paint a complete picture going back more than a handful of years, but winning special elections looks fairly predictive for how the parties fared in the House, especially if you consider the figures across each cycle. Obviously we don't know the final tally for this year, but I could see it being as high as D+4-6 and R+4-6 with the remaining contests. Still, something to keep in mind.

[Ebsy]

Next pickup opportunity: MO-HD-50 Michela Skelton (D)

Check out this blog piece on her candidacy where she was interviewed!

https://ready2vote.com/blog/ready2votes-interview-with-democratic-candidate-michela-skelton-missouri-house-district-50

If anyone is interested, I calculated the 2016 Presidential and Senate numbers this morning.

2012 President:

Obama: 37.7 (44.4 statewide)
Romney: 60 (53.6)

2016 President

Clinton: 36.7 (38.1)
Trump: 57.7 (56.8 )

2012 Senate

McCaskill: 48.7 (54.8 )
Akin: 43.3 (39.1)

2016 Senate (two party)

Kander: 45.7 (48.5)
Blunt: 54.3 (51.5)

[Ebsy]

Anyone got a results link for New Hampshire tonight?

[Ebsy]

That really is an incredible margin for what is normally a 60-40 district.

[Ebsy]

Two elections will occur next week:

Senate   NH   16   7/25/17            
Senate   MA   MDL 4   7/25/17

Mississippi HD 108 as well, a safe GOP district which went 77-23 for the GOP when it was last up in 2015. DailyKos does not have Presidential numbers for Mississippi LDs.

NH Senate 16 is an important swing district. Democrats won 51-49 in 2016, Clinton carried the district 47.69 to Trump's 47.37. Obama lost it to Romney 49-50. Will be the most interesting contest.

Massachusetts MDL 4 is a safe Democratic district that the GOP doesn't normally contest. Last time it was, Dems won it 68-32 in 2012. Obama won it 60-38.5 and Clinton carried it 62-33.

[Ebsy]

9 point swing from 2016 result folks. 10-11 point swing (depending on rounding) from presidential result.

[Ebsy]

Does anyone have anything on MA/MS?

There is no link posted on the Secretary of the Commonwealth's website: https://www.sec.state.ma.us/ele/elespeif/speifidx.htm

[Ebsy]

https://twitter.com/Cindy4Senate/status/890024128874524673

Cindy Friedman‏ @Cindy4Senate  36m
I'm humbled & honored to be elected the 4th Middlesex state Senator tonight. I look forward to working with all of you!

Democratic candidate declared victory in Massachusetts, no idea on margins though.

[Ebsy]

Friedman got 89% of the vote, no Republican filed, so the swing is massive but does not really tell us much.

[Ebsy]

Stacey Wilkes won in Mississippi. Pretty sure she was the generic Republican, though special elections in Mississippi are nonpartisan. No idea on margins or anything.

[Ebsy]

Stacey Wilkes won in Mississippi. Pretty sure she was the generic Republican, though special elections in Mississippi are nonpartisan. No idea on margins or anything.

Runoff or no?

Not sure, but I suspect no runoff. The person on her facebook page simply said she won. I'll keep an eye out for the official results though.

[Ebsy]

Mississippi result:
Wilkes: 1,375
Kelly: 812
Frazier: 531

Just barely avoided a runoff.

[Ebsy]

If anyone is interested, I calculated the 2016 Presidential and Senate numbers this morning.

2012 President:

Obama: 37.7 (44.4 statewide)
Romney: 60 (53.6)

2016 President

Clinton: 36.7 (38.1)
Trump: 57.7 (56.8 )

2012 Senate

McCaskill: 48.7 (54.8 )
Akin: 43.3 (39.1)

2016 Senate (two party)

Kander: 45.7 (48.5)
Blunt: 54.3 (51.5)