State Legislature Special Election Mega Thread

[GlobeSoc]

Upcoming races:

June 15

TN-95: Vacant following Mark Lovell's (GOP) resignation.

Julie Byrd Ashworth (DEM)
Kevin Vaughan (GOP)
Robert Schutt (IND)
Jim Tomasik (IND)

The seat was Obama 23, Romney 78 in 2012.

June 20

SC-70

Vacant after Joseph Neal (DEM) passed away.

Wendy Brawley (DEM)
Bill Strickland (GOP)

The seat was Clinton 70, Trump 27 in 2016 and Obama 74, Romney 25 in 2012.

SC-48

Vacant following Ralph Norman's (GOP) resignation to run for SC-05.

Bebs Barron Chorak (DEM)
Bruce Bryant (GOP)

The seat was Clinton 35, Trump 60 in 2016 and Obama 35, Romney 63 in 2012.

None of the above races look to be competitive so it will mostly be interesting to watch the swings.

Actually the Tennessee race is interesting. Not for the Democrat, but for the Independent Robert Schutt who has a surprisingly huge fundraising haul. He could get into the high 20% range with well over $20k for a special election like this.

Is he going to be a spoiler or draw roughly even numbers on both sides?

[GlobeSoc]

Another ''family values'' GOPer caught w/ his pants down:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

The Oklahoma GOP apparently saw the toxicity of the kansas GOP and decided to make almost their entire party dedicated to creating a worse brand than them by any means necessary

[GlobeSoc]

OK-GOV is a serious opportunity for Dems I think it is a more realistic pickup than Maryland and Massachusetts.

OKC+Tulsa+Little Dixie would probably be enough to get a win. But that's hard.

[GlobeSoc]

OK-GOV is a serious opportunity for Dems I think it is a more realistic pickup than Maryland and Massachusetts.

OKC+Tulsa+Little Dixie would probably be enough to get a win. But that's hard.

Little Dixie is, almost uniformly, very Republican now, and almost always leant conservative (electing Democrats like Boren, for example)

Sure, but in Fallins 2014 underperformance, there was a noticeable east-west divide in the results, even in rural areas. Compared to 2014, a dem would probably need to flip several close rural counties, almost all in Little Dixie, as well as get a mid-high single digit margin in the counties where Tulsa and OKC are located

[GlobeSoc]

Stacey Wilkes won in Mississippi. Pretty sure she was the generic Republican, though special elections in Mississippi are nonpartisan. No idea on margins or anything.

Runoff or no?

[GlobeSoc]

Do we have actual vote totals?

I think I saw election day vote totals but nothing final from election day and vote by mail due to the embargoed ballots.

Euer (DEM): 1811
Smith (GOP): 1217
Larson (GRE): 19
Ripoli (LIB): 71

Apparently those totals include everything from election day, but none of the mail-ins. It works out to a margin of 58%-39%. That's a notable swing to Republicans from Clinton's 65%-30% win. A bad sign for democrats everywhere.

What type of district is this?

[GlobeSoc]

https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/910973381859856384

Dem pollster Myers Research & Strategic Services gives Dem Dhingra 55-41 lead in Nov race for control of WA Senate

A wholesome, tax cutting centrist.

[GlobeSoc]

It's possible that with these low turnouts a precinct where democrats turned out strongly could have a disproportionate impact on these races.

[GlobeSoc]

I suppose you can't win them all.

[GlobeSoc]

This is agonizing

How do you think I feel?

ook!

[GlobeSoc]

How much of the vote has reported?

[GlobeSoc]

huh. I was not expecting the republican to get blanched.

[GlobeSoc]

LMAO.. But Atlas told me any district outside of down towns are impossible for democrats to win in the rust belt.

[GlobeSoc]

Just to be clear, even for western WI, this is heavy R territory. BIG win today.

So how does this win influence the situation in 2018 WI state senate?

[GlobeSoc]

Just to be clear, even for western WI, this is heavy R territory. BIG win today.

So how does this win influence the situation in 2018 WI state senate?

Very well. Western WI is Baldwin's strong suit, and it shows that it's still as elastic as it has been historically.

I meant state senate, not US senate. Sorry about that

[GlobeSoc]

black people from Canada were bussed in to vote illegally, and in fact 100% of the votes for both candidates in district 97 were illegal black canadian votes because the county outsourced its voting to a firm in Quebec, so that the locals could not give a  about politics like real Americans. We should be proud of an ingenious community figuring out how to allow all of its citizens to not vote. USA! USA! USA!

[GlobeSoc]

How quickly does WI count?

[GlobeSoc]

RESULTS THUS FAR

Tim Burns   68   17%   
Rebecca Dallet   208   52%   
Michael Screnock   122   31%   
0% reporting (4 of 3480 precincts)

literally where are those 4 precincts?

edit: in Milwaukee county lol

[GlobeSoc]

The Democrats aren’t going to lose any special election in NH, lol. It will be a landslide.

I think they also flip CT by an underwhelming margin and lose KY by only 5-10 or so.

NH: Safe D
KY: Tilt R
CT: Lean D

The KY house district is historically republican. Even Beshear didn't win it in 2011

It would be quite interesting to see how unionist and ancestrally dem areas converge/diverge in KY and elsewhere in Appalachia, IMO.

[GlobeSoc]

what are the obama-romney trump-clinton and jones-moore results of this district

[GlobeSoc]

I think we can project this...