State Legislature Special Election Mega Thread

[kph14]

IK it is a little off topic, but could we please get links for fairfax at large school board race?

If Democrats get this margin up and down the ticket in November, all three state Democrats will win and Democrats will pick up at least 10 seats in the House.

I don't think he outperformed Hillary though

Keys-Gamarra won 64-33
Clinton won 64-29

Clinton had a larger margin, but Keys-Gamarra matched her %.

Which was the highest % a Democratic presidential nominee got in Fairfax County since 1936 by the way.

[kph14]

Two days ago was the filing deadline in Georgia's 6th Senate district.
It is a suburban district that voted: 55-40 Clinton and 52-48 R in 2016.

Three Democrats (including the 2016 nominee) and five Republicans filed. Jungle Primary is on Nov 7 and a runoff would be on Dec 5. If no clear frontrunner appears on the Republican site maybe two Dems will make it to the runoff

[kph14]

According to the Foxborough Patch (local newspaper) Feeney (D) beats 47.36% to Ventura's 43.44% with Shortsleeve getting 9.19%. Not a great results for the Dems but the district swung hard to Clinton in 2016. Obama won it only 50-48 in 2012. 

[kph14]

This district also had a history of supporting downballot Republicans:
2012: Brown 58-42 against Warren
2013: Gomez 56-44 against Markey (In 2014 Markey won it only 52-48)
2014: Baker 59-37 against Coakley

The result is not too bad for the Democrats or that surprising especially since Shortsleeve considered to run as a Democrat at first

[kph14]

And now, the 10 competitive races. 9 of these are Republican seats and 1 is a Democratic seat. Democrats look likely to win state Senate seats in Georgia and Washington and I would not be surprised if they won two or three of the other races here, and are likely favored to defend their one vulnerable seat in Michigan. However, without further ado:

Georgia HD 117

Both this district and 119 contain about a quarter of Athens as well as some of the surrounding rural areas. This seat was a very close Trump 49, Clinton 46 in 2016. The previous incumbent, Regina Quick (GOP) had not faced general election opposition in some time. I’m rating it a Toss Up.

Deborah Gonzalez (DEM)
Houston Gaines (GOP)

Georgia HD 119

Another Athens seat that Trump won 51-44. Will likely result in a runoff between the Democrat and one of the Republican candidates. Lean Republican.

Jonathan Wallace (DEM)
Lawton Lord (GOP)
Marcus A. Wiedower (GOP)
Steven Strickland (GOP)

Georgia SD 6

This district in the northern Atlanta suburbs swung to Clinton 55, Trump 40, and incumbent Hunter Hill (GOP) had a surprisingly close race, winning over Democrat Jaha Howard 52-48. Without the power of incumbency, Republicans will be hard pressed to hold this district. One factor is that there is an extremely crowded jungle primary, so there could be a wacky result. Lean Democratic.

Jaha Howard (DEM)
Jen Jordan (DEM)
Taos Wynn (DEM)
Charlie Fiveash (GOP)
Kathy Eichenblatt (GOP)
Leah Aldridge (GOP)
Leo Smith (GOP)
Matt Bentley (GOP)

ME HD 56

This Lisbon, Maine seat was a punishing Clinton 35, Trump 57, but was much closer in 2012, going Obama 40, Romney 47. This is definitely a stretch seat for Democrats, but they almost won it in 2012, losing it 52-47. Likely Republican.

Scott Gaiason (DEM)
Richard Mason (GOP)

Michigan HD 109

This seat takes in much of the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, including Marquette, and flipped from an Obama 53045 victory in 2012 to a Trump 49-45 victory in 2016. This is the only seat I can see Democrats potentially losing this year, and it should be an interesting bellwether for races in Michigan in 2018. The previous incumbent, John Kivela, won in a landslide, 66-34, in 2016. Lean Democratic.

Cambensy (DEM)
Rossway (GOP)
Wade Roberts (GRE)

MO SD 8

This race in the Kansas City suburbs on paper should not be competitive, having gone for Trump 58-37 and Romney 59-39. However, polling has shown the race close due to the presence of a Trump conservative with high name recognition on the ballot, and he might play spoiler in favor of the Democrat, Hillary Shields, over a member of GOP leadership in the Missouri House of Representative, Mike Cierpiot. Toss Up.

Hillary Shields (DEM)
Mike Cierpiot (GOP)
Jacob Turk (IND)

NH HD Hillsborough 15

This swingly seat went Trump 53-43, but was a much narrower Roney 51-48 victory in 2012.  Considering recent New Hampshire races, this is certainly going to be a good Democratic pick up opportunity. Last election, one Democrat and one Republican was elected, and the Republican, Steve Vaillancourt, died of a heart attack. Toss Up.

Connors (DEM)
MacArthur (GOP)

WA HD 31

I doubt this Trump 50-42, Romney 50-48 seat will end up being competitive in light of the first round results, but crazier things have happened. Vacant following the appointment of Fortunado (GOP) to SD 31. Irwin got 57% in the first round. Likely Republican.

Lowry (DEM)
(I)Irwin (GOP)

WA SD 31

See above. Fortunato got 58% in the first round. Likely Republican.

Rylands (DEM)
(I)Fortunato (GOP)

WA SD 45

The marquee race of the cycle, with the Republican party scrambling to hold on to their Senate majority in Washington with this brutal Clinton 65-28 and Obama 58-40 seat. Dino Rossi was appointed to this seat but decided against running for the seat in the special election, instead opting to run for the retiring Dave Reichert’s (GOP) seat. The Democrat, Dhingra, got 52% in the first round. Lean Democratic.

Dhingra (DEM)
Englund (GOP)

Interesting.  Are there any Blue Dog Dems left in McCain/Romney/Trump seats in the GA Senate?  This would be the veto-sustaining seat for GA Democrats if they can flip GA-GOV and hold all of their other state senate seats.

There isn't even a single Democratic state senator in any Trump seats

[kph14]

Two days ago was the filing deadline in Georgia's 6th Senate district.
It is a suburban district that voted: 55-40 Clinton and 52-48 R in 2016.

Three Democrats (including the 2016 nominee) and five Republicans filed. Jungle Primary is on Nov 7 and a runoff would be on Dec 5. If no clear frontrunner appears on the Republican site maybe two Dems will make it to the runoff

I got this one right. Despite the fact that R leads D 51-49 with one precinct still missing, two Democrats will emerge to the runoff

[kph14]

Freedom map!
https://twitter.com/mcimaps/status/930649947460046848?s=17

[kph14]

I think the results in MA is not sooo surprising. Clinton won it only by 8 points and Obama only by 5. Reps hold State Senate seats in bluer places. Very low turnout was an issue for sure

[kph14]

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There is also a D v D race in Connecticut House District 15.

Georgia SD-17 should be safe R, as it voted 57-41 Trump. HD-111 on the other hand could be the first Democratic pickup of the year. It voted 50-47 Clinton and I would rate lean D under the current environment.

[kph14]

34% is in in SD 17... looks like Strickland(R) has a very good chance to win that race tonight without a runoff

[kph14]

34% is in in SD 17... looks like Strickland(R) has a very good chance to win that race tonight without a runoff

It's showing as 34% because 1 of 3 counties is complete.  But only 4 of 40 precincts in the district are complete.

Oh, my bad. So the Rockdale portion is complete. In 2016, the Democratic challenger got 46% there. This time 45%. I still don't think that this race is close to competitive.

[kph14]

34% is in in SD 17... looks like Strickland(R) has a very good chance to win that race tonight without a runoff

It's showing as 34% because 1 of 3 counties is complete.  But only 4 of 40 precincts in the district are complete.

Oh, my bad. So the Rockdale portion is complete. In 2016, the Democratic challenger got 46% there. This time 45%. I still don't think that this race is close to competitive.

I agree, it probably isn't.  I think the SoS website has some issues, though.  The precinct count jumped from 4 to 20, but the vote totals didn't change.

HD-117 is now 6/13

[kph14]

Newton County now in for SD-17. I don't like the turnout pattern. Democrat is again slightly underperforming the 2016 result. Looks like the electorate is a bit more Republican than in 2016. That's not what we saw in many other special elections.

[kph14]

A slew of special elections tonight, and a chance for Democrats to get back to winning after their embarrassing performance in Georgia.

SC (7 ET): https://www.scvotes.org/state-house-representatives-district-28-special-election & https://www.scvotes.org/state-house-representatives-district-99-special-election

WI (9 ET): Something may show up here later: http://elections.wi.gov/elections-voting/results-all

IA (10 ET): Not seeing a results page at the moment

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[kph14]

Maybe some home county effects? That wouldn’t be too unusual with a 12% turnout

[kph14]

Trump won the Bekerly portion by 22, Mace is leading by 23... so not a huge overperformance

[kph14]

http://www.co.dunn.wi.us/vertical/Sites/%7BD750D8EC-F485-41AF-8057-2CE69E2B175A%7D/uploads/8TABULAR_STATEMENT_OF_VOTES_CAST_1-16-2018.pdf
Dunn:
1362-633 Schachtner

[kph14]

Without anything out of St Croix the winner is still unsure

[kph14]

Wisconsin‘s AD 58 meanwhile voted 57-43 R after 67-28 Trump, 75-25 Walker and 68-31 Romney

https://mobile.twitter.com/ActorAaronBooth/status/953453704753176576

[kph14]

https://twitter.com/cdrochester/status/953464824968761345


This is probably one of the most stunning special election pickups Ds have had.

This proofs that one bizarre Minnesota poll means nothing

[kph14]

Just beautiful.

[kph14]

Any results from Iowa yet?

56-44 R over 20 points improvement from 2016

[kph14]

That guy is campaigning for the Republican nominee in the special election in Pennsylvania House District 35 next week. Will be great to see the Democrats win this 58-39 Clinton seat.

[kph14]

In addition, there is a statewide ballot measure in Oregon today.

The Democrats have campaigned for a yes, while the Republicans support a no. Could be a tight result

https://ballotpedia.org/Oregon_Measure_101,_Healthcare_Insurance_Premiums_Tax_for_Medicaid_Referendum_(January_2018)

[kph14]

In addition, there is a statewide ballot measure in Oregon today.

The Democrats have campaigned for a yes, while the Republicans support a no. Could be a tight result

https://ballotpedia.org/Oregon_Measure_101,_Healthcare_Insurance_Premiums_Tax_for_Medicaid_Referendum_(January_2018)

How much of a tax are we talking about here?

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