State Legislature Special Election Mega Thread

[Mr.Phips]

2014 Results from SC-84



Obama got 35.1% of the two party vote here in 2012.

From what I can tell, it looks like a Dem hasn't held this seat since at least the 1980s and possibly before.  I'm not holding out much hope for a close race here.

[Mr.Phips]

Precinct results for Bristol township in 2016:

Pretty close to the district as a whole.

[Mr.Phips]

In case anyone was wondering:

This is misleading, though, because New Hampshire has way more seats in its legislature than any other state to begin with.

What is sad and pathetic is that these are only the TOP state losses.  Obama wiped out Democrats the way Eisenhower wiped out Republicans in 1958.  It took Republicans until 1994 to even be competitive again at the state and local level.

[Mr.Phips]

In case anyone was wondering:

This is misleading, though, because New Hampshire has way more seats in its legislature than any other state to begin with.

What is sad and pathetic is that these are only the TOP state losses.  Obama wiped out Democrats the way Eisenhower wiped out Republicans in 1958.  It took Republicans until 1994 to even be competitive again at the state and local level.

The flips of southern legislatures was, long term, an inevitability that preceded Obama. Tennessee, Oklahoma and Mississippi were already close in 2008.

1958 was a generational wipeout, rather than structural issues coming home to roost a la 2010

I wasn't just the southern legislatures in 2010.  It was "blue" states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin and swing ones like Ohio and North Carolina where Dems also got killed.

[Mr.Phips]

Diaz leading by 8 points. Lol Florida Dems are trash

Just the early votes so far, which he was expected to win. He is still probably going to win, but will likely get closer.

The GOP had like a one point edge in the early vote, which means the Dem is also losing independents by a wide margin. If Dems can't win a seat Hillary won by 20 points when Trump is President with a 35% approval rating, they may as well give up in Florida.

[Mr.Phips]

What a disappointing performance. Utterly disgusted with the MS democratic party.

I mean, the 2015 results were 73-27 so it's not horrible.

And Presidential results were only 1% in Trump favor. So Rehner underperformed mightily compared to that. She could not even equal Black percentage in the district (about 36) - rarity in Mississippi, and especially - in a district where (as seen from 2016 results) there are whites  ready to vote for Democratic candidates (again - relatively rare thing in this state)

Mississippi is one of many states where there is simply no Democratic party or organisation to speak of.

[Mr.Phips]

What a disappointing performance. Utterly disgusted with the MS democratic party.

I mean, the 2015 results were 73-27 so it's not horrible.

And Presidential results were only 1% in Trump favor. So Rehner underperformed mightily compared to that. She could not even equal Black percentage in the district (about 36) - rarity in Mississippi, and especially - in a district where (as seen from 2016 results) there are whites  ready to vote for Democratic candidates (again - relatively rare thing in this state)

Mississippi is one of many states where there is simply no Democratic party or organisation to speak of.

Only 10 years ago Democrats still had a majority in Legislature there... Of course - a lot of these Democrats were conservatives (what's only natural for conservative state), but still - .....

Usually, once Democrats lose control of a legislature in a state, it is very difficult if not impossible to pull themselves back up due to gerrymandering and loss of funding.  See Alabama, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Indiana, Ohio, Michigan, etc.

[Mr.Phips]

The early/absentee vote tends to closely track the final result here.

[Mr.Phips]

https://twitter.com/SouthReporter/status/935707817188700161

Very bad result in MS-10 SD.
Rs flip D held seat in Mississippi by 10 points in runoff. Don't have 2016 numbers but looks like the D (Gipson) underperformed Clinton in both of the counties the district is in.

From the looks of it, the district went about 53-45 for Trump and 50-49 for Obama in 2012.

[Mr.Phips]

How small are Tennessee’s senate districts if only 6500 people voted in this one?

Votes are still coming in.

Tennessee Senate District 17
View County Breakdown
Candidate   Party   Votes   %
Mark Pody   Republican   3,562   53.40%
Mary Alice Carfi   Democratic   3,108   46.60%

Cannon   Final Results   Early Votes, Absentee Votes, Precincts   9 of 9   
Clay   Incomplete   Early Votes, Absentee Votes, Precincts   2 of 7   
Dekalb   Incomplete   Early Votes, Absentee Votes, Precincts   8 of 15   
Macon   Incomplete   Early Votes, Absentee Votes, Precincts   7 of 10   
Smith   Incomplete   Early Votes, Absentee Votes, Precincts   1 of 8   
Wilson   Incomplete   Early Votes, Absentee Votes   0 of 31   

Wilson will likely end up giving the Republican a big lead.

[Mr.Phips]

How small are Tennessee’s senate districts if only 6500 people voted in this one?

Votes are still coming in.

Tennessee Senate District 17
View County Breakdown
Candidate   Party   Votes   %
Mark Pody   Republican   3,562   53.40%
Mary Alice Carfi   Democratic   3,108   46.60%

Cannon   Final Results   Early Votes, Absentee Votes, Precincts   9 of 9   
Clay   Incomplete   Early Votes, Absentee Votes, Precincts   2 of 7   
Dekalb   Incomplete   Early Votes, Absentee Votes, Precincts   8 of 15   
Macon   Incomplete   Early Votes, Absentee Votes, Precincts   7 of 10   
Smith   Incomplete   Early Votes, Absentee Votes, Precincts   1 of 8   
Wilson   Incomplete   Early Votes, Absentee Votes   0 of 31   

Wilson will likely end up giving the Republican a big lead.

It was the least pro-Trump county out of all the counties in the district.

But less elastic than the other counties.

[Mr.Phips]

How small are Tennessee’s senate districts if only 6500 people voted in this one?

Votes are still coming in.

Tennessee Senate District 17
View County Breakdown
Candidate   Party   Votes   %
Mark Pody   Republican   3,562   53.40%
Mary Alice Carfi   Democratic   3,108   46.60%

Cannon   Final Results   Early Votes, Absentee Votes, Precincts   9 of 9   
Clay   Incomplete   Early Votes, Absentee Votes, Precincts   2 of 7   
Dekalb   Incomplete   Early Votes, Absentee Votes, Precincts   8 of 15   
Macon   Incomplete   Early Votes, Absentee Votes, Precincts   7 of 10   
Smith   Incomplete   Early Votes, Absentee Votes, Precincts   1 of 8   
Wilson   Incomplete   Early Votes, Absentee Votes   0 of 31   

Wilson will likely end up giving the Republican a big lead.

It was the least pro-Trump county out of all the counties in the district.

But less elastic than the other counties.

How do you know that it is less elastic?

Wealthier and more suburban.

[Mr.Phips]

Good article previewing tonight's race in AL HD-21

Map

I'm expecting a 60-40 win for the Republican.