State Legislature Special Election Mega Thread

[GeorgiaModerate]

Results Pages for tonight:

GA (7 ET): http://results.enr.clarityelections.com/GA/72213/Web02-state/#/

PA (8 ET): http://www.electionreturns.pa.gov

CA (11 ET): https://www.lavote.net/election-results#year=2017&election=3791

Not seeing a page for MA at this time.

In the city of Atlanta and Fulton County, polls are open until 8pm (I'm not sure why they're different).

[GeorgiaModerate]

Atlas red avatars when Democrats win abysmally low turnout special elections: "THE WAVE WILL BE MASSIVE!"

Atlas red avatars when Republicans win abysmally low turnout special elections: "Irrelevant, it was low turnout!"

<Holds up a mirror to IceSpear's avatar>

[GeorgiaModerate]

Not sure where this district is but here's the current TN radar. Gray = No rain, Green = light rain, Yellow = heavy rain

17 is east/northeast of Nashville, so not much rain there.

[GeorgiaModerate]

IS SHE ABOUT TO DO IT?

lol

Y'all still think I'm a Republican?

No, just a useless and unhelpful troll

No, it's the opposite: he's unhelpful and useless.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Well, it was a nice try:

Tennessee Senate District 17
View County Breakdown
Candidate   Party   Votes   %
Mark Pody   Republican   3,334   53.89%
Mary Alice Carfi   Democratic   2,853   46.11%

Trump carried this district by which margin?

If the district consists exactly of Cannon, Clay, DeKalb, Macon, Smith, and Wilson counties (which it looks like, but I'm not certain of this), the 2016 results were:

County    Trump       Clinton     Trump%   Clinton%
Cannon     4007          1127   78.0%   22.0%
Clay           2141            707   75.2%   24.8%
DeKalb      5171         1569   76.7%   23.3%
Macon       6263         1072   85.4%   14.6%
Smith        5494         1689   76.5%   23.5%
Wilson     39406        14385   73.3%   26.7%
TOTAL     62482      20549   75.3%   24.7%

% is the share of the two-candidate vote.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Oh right. It's Atlanta so no results for another 3 hours.

Neither Georgia race involves Atlanta or Fulton County.

[GeorgiaModerate]

34% is in in SD 17... looks like Strickland(R) has a very good chance to win that race tonight without a runoff

It's showing as 34% because 1 of 3 counties is complete.  But only 4 of 40 precincts in the district are complete.

[GeorgiaModerate]

34% is in in SD 17... looks like Strickland(R) has a very good chance to win that race tonight without a runoff

It's showing as 34% because 1 of 3 counties is complete.  But only 4 of 40 precincts in the district are complete.

Oh, my bad. So the Rockdale portion is complete. In 2016, the Democratic challenger got 46% there. This time 45%. I still don't think that this race is close to competitive.

I agree, it probably isn't.  I think the SoS website has some issues, though.  The precinct count jumped from 4 to 20, but the vote totals didn't change.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Something that should REALLY have the GOP worried (from the Marquette U pollster):

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Please explain

If one party wins a seat 65% to 35%

In the next election the same party wins 55% to 45%

Is that a 10% or a 20% swing?

I'd call it a net 20% swing, since the margin went from 30 to 10.

[GeorgiaModerate]

New poll for the FL HD-72 special election on February 13th.

http://floridapolitics.com/archives/254405-new-hd-72-polling-puts-james-buchanan-margaret-good-virtual-tie

James Buchanan (R): 49
Margaret Good (D): 46

This is a Trump 51-46 district

The Democratic is at the same % as Hillary was. NOT GOOD!

FWIW, this pollster has a C+ from 538 based on only 2 polls.

[GeorgiaModerate]

we also have what I take is the early vote?

State Representative - District 97 - unexpired           0 of 10 Precincts Reported
David C. Linton   Republican   3   18.750%
Mike Revis   Democratic   13   81.250%
    Total Votes:   16   

Effects of Erotic Eric’s Sexual Escapades and Josh Hawley recession, folks

This sounds like the name of an X-rated theme park.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Revis wins. D+1.

I love how you're calling a race at only 17/44 precincts in, lol.

Actually 1/10 precincts.... lol

That's district 97. Revis is 144.

No, Revis is running in 97.

[GeorgiaModerate]

From SoS:

State Representative - District 97 - unexpired           10 of 10 Precincts Reported
David C. Linton   Republican   1,679   48.442%
Mike Revis   Democratic   1,787   51.558%

[GeorgiaModerate]

And somehow, Ds get District 97 (?) (Fraud?)

Why would you say that?  It was always the most likely of the 4 to flip, and with the massive swings we've seen in other specials, it's not shocking.

[GeorgiaModerate]

So, let's look at things overall. In three of the four races tonight, things went as expected in Missouri - Republicans win, Democrats lose. The loss was wider than I expected in 39 and 129, and smaller than I expected in 144, but still the republicans won as expected. But in District 97, we saw a vastly different result, with a Democrat winning a very republican seat, a disastrously improbable event. Looking at the county results, it is apparent that the Jefferson County vote, which is way too democratic, was the victim of voter fraud. Democrats likely bused voters from other districts in just enough numbers to illegally flip this race. What this should do is mobilize every resident of Missouri to keep careful watch over their respective polling place and do all they can to stop future fraud. I encourage the republican candidate in HD-97 to pursue electoral fraud charges for the Jefferson County portion of the district in state court as soon as feasible.

are you on drugs or something?

I'm assuming he's satirizing some of the far-right types after the AL-SEN election.

If not, then you're probably right about the drugs.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Why aren’t the Dems doing better in 23B?

It’s a Monday special in Trump country?

Why is this election on a Monday?  That seems weird.

[GeorgiaModerate]

James Vernon Buchanan   
REP   11,983   
42.78%
Margaret Good   
DEM   15,350   
54.79%

3400 votes seems like an okay cushion

What percentage of the vote is in?

[GeorgiaModerate]

I'm envious.  Why can't Georgia count that fast?

[GeorgiaModerate]

LOL, that's a 75 points swing.

Is that the largest so far this cycle?

[GeorgiaModerate]

HAHAHAHAHA


RAPE-APOLOGIST REBECCA JOHNSON TAKING THE L LIKE A CHAMP!\

Rebecca Johnson for KY State Representative 49th District
6 mins ·
I'm looking forward to the General Election and working towards winning it. Hopefully any polling discrepancies will be fixed by then. The local GOP, and Republican Party of Kentucky are looking into it.

https://www.facebook.com/rebecca49th/

Lol good luck with that.

She should check with Roy Moore. 

[GeorgiaModerate]

Republican Cartier wins Laconia W6 with 201 to 182 for Dem Spagnuolo

This puts us at Dem 750, GOP 708.

Any insight on which way the remaining ward leans?

[GeorgiaModerate]

What's the conventional wisdom on the TN race?

[GeorgiaModerate]

What's the conventional wisdom on the TN race?

I mean, the democrat is an atheist running in a TN district even redder than TN as a whole.

Thanks, that answered the question of whether I should pay any attention to it.