State Legislature Special Election Mega Thread

[smoltchanov]

Wow, that turnout is abysmal.

Those few, who cared - voted, other - had more pressing problems.

[smoltchanov]

OK-GOV is a serious opportunity for Dems I think it is a more realistic pickup than Maryland and Massachusetts.

OKC+Tulsa+Little Dixie would probably be enough to get a win. But that's hard.

Little Dixie is, almost uniformly, very Republican now, and almost always leant conservative (electing Democrats like Boren, for example)

[smoltchanov]

OK-GOV is a serious opportunity for Dems I think it is a more realistic pickup than Maryland and Massachusetts.

OKC+Tulsa+Little Dixie would probably be enough to get a win. But that's hard.

Little Dixie is, almost uniformly, very Republican now, and almost always leant conservative (electing Democrats like Boren, for example)

Sure, but in Fallins 2014 underperformance, there was a noticeable east-west divide in the results, even in rural areas. Compared to 2014, a dem would probably need to flip several close rural counties, almost all in Little Dixie, as well as get a mid-high single digit margin in the counties where Tulsa and OKC are located

Agree. But that task looks daunting now.

[smoltchanov]

^ Fair points, but still, D + 35 -> D + 19 is a heck of a swing to Rs and very hard to not see as a bad sign.

It was about 55-45 Democratic in 2014, with very influential Democratic state senator running for reelection, and the same Republican candidate. So, i don't see any reasons for Democrats to panic...

[smoltchanov]

Well, interesting: Democrats won yesterday Trump's districts in New Hampshire and Oklahoma, but got less then a quatrer of votes and barely made a runoff in Mississippi's very swingy (on Presidential level) district. Either Democratic candidate was very bad, or Republican candidates were unusually good (and, in fact, McGee seems to be a Cochran-type pragmatic conservative, not McDaniel-type extremist, who actively participated in campaigns of her predeccessor, who was one of the most pragmatic Republicans in Legislature, and was convincingly elected as mayor of majority-Black city).

[smoltchanov]

https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/910973381859856384

Dem pollster Myers Research & Strategic Services gives Dem Dhingra 55-41 lead in Nov race for control of WA Senate

Rather natural. It's difficult (though - theoretically possible) to imagine area, which was so anti-Trump and strongly moving left, among Republican-held. Even Litzow in neighbouring district couldn't hold on....

[smoltchanov]

DailyKos is gonna have another field day tomorrow

DKE is actually really good. Better than RRH at least, which has been overrrun with Bannonites recently.

Just never ever venture outside of DKE. Ever.

+1. Though even on DKE you would be banned for criticising Obama (i was), while widely applauded for identical criticism of Trump or Romney))) Funny))) Probably that's such sort of Democracy))))

[smoltchanov]

What a disappointing performance. Utterly disgusted with the MS democratic party.

I mean, the 2015 results were 73-27 so it's not horrible.

And Presidential results were only 1% in Trump favor. So Rehner underperformed mightily compared to that. She could not even equal Black percentage in the district (about 36) - rarity in Mississippi, and especially - in a district where (as seen from 2016 results) there are whites  ready to vote for Democratic candidates (again - relatively rare thing in this state)

[smoltchanov]

What a disappointing performance. Utterly disgusted with the MS democratic party.

I mean, the 2015 results were 73-27 so it's not horrible.

And Presidential results were only 1% in Trump favor. So Rehner underperformed mightily compared to that. She could not even equal Black percentage in the district (about 36) - rarity in Mississippi, and especially - in a district where (as seen from 2016 results) there are whites  ready to vote for Democratic candidates (again - relatively rare thing in this state)

Mississippi is one of many states where there is simply no Democratic party or organisation to speak of.

Only 10 years ago Democrats still had a majority in Legislature there... Of course - a lot of these Democrats were conservatives (what's only natural for conservative state), but still - .....

[smoltchanov]

Yeah, that's a district with lots of blue-collar workers, so Democrats were expected to have at least some difficulties here. Feeney association with Sanders was, probably, an asset here - many such workers hated Hillary, but loved Bernie...

[smoltchanov]

Yeah, that's a district with lots of blue-collar workers, so Democrats were expected to have at least some difficulties here. Feeney association with Sanders was, probably, an asset here - many such workers hated Hillary, but loved Bernie...

Plus there was a left-wing independent candidate.

Somewhat strange candidate, to be fair. For Bernie in primaries, but for Trump in general? Exactly like my cousin, but i still shrug my shoulders in disbelief....

[smoltchanov]

All things considered, 56R-44D was not a bad performance for the Democrat at all, given how weak a candidate he appeared to be in the primary.

I'd guess that the competitive New Orleans mayoral race juicing turnout there + very low turnout everywhere else is basically responsible for that.

Yeah. Under normal situation it would be 60-62% Republican at least...

[smoltchanov]

https://twitter.com/SouthReporter/status/935707817188700161

Very bad result in MS-10 SD.
Rs flip D held seat in Mississippi by 10 points in runoff. Don't have 2016 numbers but looks like the D (Gipson) underperformed Clinton in both of the counties the district is in.

Black alderwoman as Democratic candidate in racially polarized rural Deep South non-Black majority district may be not the best candidate... Especially - in low turnout special. Previous state Senator was white somewhat "left-of-center" on economy and "somewhat right-of-center" on social issues male. And western part of the district (Tate county, which gave Republican (technically - Independent) candidate big majority now) was, until last redistricting, represented by rather conservative white male Democrat.

[smoltchanov]

In such districts a percentage of Whites and Blacks in population gives good 1st approximation to expected results. 90+% of whites votes Republican, and 97-98% of Blacks - Democratic with such "normal"  candidates. If a candidate has special crossover appeal (Stone, Hale, a.o.)  - another matter..

[smoltchanov]

So what happened? Did the Dem candidate just sh**t the bed? lol

Tran was a good candidate - he almost won a state House race before. Plus - moderate Indie, who, probably, took at least some Democratic votes. And, overall, this part of Massachussetts and this district in particular is NOT too liberal in general.

[smoltchanov]

You guys might want to read the post right above yours.

Yes, where he said low turnout was a factor, just as it was in those Oklahoma specials. I missed "irrelevant" though - that's the part you added.

I live in Massachusetts and I'm genuinely curious why the R won here.

That whole Northern Worcester County area along the NH border is trending republican fast. Its got alot of WWC voters and the swing to trump last year were massive. Of all the towns in it, i'd say they break down as follows:

Actually the district trended Democratic last year (it was 52-46 Obama in 2012, 50-42 Clinton in 2016).

Still - not too liberal, especially - by Massachussetts standards. So - good Republican candidate (like Tran) can win here...

[smoltchanov]

^ As a Russian (and living now in Russia to boot), i will say that it makes no more sense for Russian "powers that be" to support Republican party and it's candidates then Democratic party and it's candidates now. Relations between our two countries are bad (approximately the same as they would be under Hillary), and there are no signs of their improvement in a near future under any feasible scenario. So, the dominant position would, probably, be, "plague on BOTH your houses"))))). Right now Russian goverment, most likely, doesn't needs active bots in US....

[smoltchanov]

The only probable conclusion, which can be made from all these specials: it's too early to predict with assurance. Most likely - there will NOT be a uniform "tide, which raises all ships": at least some Democratic candidates may perform well in "trumpist WWC" areas, and at least some Republican - in wealthy educated suburbs, which swung hard to Clinton in 2016. A lot will depend on particular candidates and their personal qualities, and presidential percentages in a district, while useful, are not all that must be taken into account. IMHO, relatively good predictions may be made not earlier then a month before Election day.

[smoltchanov]

In any case - rather good results for Democrats. Especially - compared with absolute collapse of Clinton in 2016.

[smoltchanov]

So, what's the next conquest? FL HD 72 next week?

I guess but good luck with the Florida Democratic Party, lol.

Can we project a Dinkin's win yet?

Can you delete your account yet?

Told you Wayne would put Dinkin's over, wise guy...

I never said she wouldn't win? I just want you to delete your account just because you are a terrible poster who has terrible instincts.

This validates my post even more.

No, it only proves that you are idiot of highest degree. So, follow my advice please..

[smoltchanov]

Wulfric is either the best troll or a Bagel/smolt-tier poster.

As i already said - you don't achieve even that level.

[smoltchanov]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

ahahahaha oh my god

How can someone write that kind of spin and not throw up a little in their mouth?

If he is paid well enough - why not?

[smoltchanov]

Wulfric is either the best troll or a Bagel/smolt-tier poster.

As i already said - you don't achieve even that level.

Aw shucks, thank you!

Always glad to help you..

[smoltchanov]

State Representative - District 144 - unexpired           44 of 44 Precincts Reported
Chris Dinkins   Republican   2,998   52.624%
Jim Scaggs   Democratic   2,699   47.376%
    Total Votes:   5,697   


Full statement on tonight coming shortly.

Thanks for the update. Great victory for the GOP!

Let you always "celebrate" such "victories"))))

[smoltchanov]

Good result for Democrats this night in Minnesota: tough seat was held, and another - frankly speaking there wasn't a lot of chances from the beginning.