What do you think would have happened in 1992 without Perot?

[progressive85]

If it was just Bill Clinton and George Bush, who would have won and what would have been the percentages?  I think it would have been maybe 52-47 Clinton, something similar to what Barack Obama got in 2008.

[heatcharger]

Governor Bill Clinton (D-AR) / Senator Al Gore (D-TN) - 394 EV - 52.5%
President George H.W. Bush (R-TX) / Vice President Dan Quayle (R-IN) - 141 EV - 46.7%

Bush would've held on to those Western states he lost, but Clinton would make up for it by flipping EV-rich states like NC and FL, leading to a more lopsided electoral map.

[MT Treasurer]

Clinton wins 294-244 without Perot.

Close, but not close enough for Bush to win. Closest states: LA, WI, NJ, KY, TN.

[Arbitrage1980]

The only states that definitely would have flipped to Bush are Montana, Nevada, Colorado, New Hampshire. I know GA was the closest state that year, but Perot did not do well in the South so not sure how much of an impact it would have made. I also think Clinton would have kept Ohio and New Jersey.

[SingingAnalyst]

Voter turnout would have dipped under 50%, as it did in 1996 and almost did in 2000.

[Kingpoleon]

284: Bill Clinton/Paul Tsongas - 47.3%
254: George Bush/Dan Quayle - 47.0%

[OSR stands with Israel]

Clinton 285 49%
Bush 253 49.1%

[Beet]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.salon.com/2011/04/04/third_party_myth_easterbrook/

[Kingpoleon]

Perot was essentially a big voice as a critic of George H. W. Bush, and being an independent made the criticisms seem far less partisan.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Bush Sr had a 39% approval rating, he was dead on arrival in 1992 with or without Perot.

[uti2]

Bush Sr had a 39% approval rating, he was dead on arrival in 1992 with or without Perot.

Truman had a 39% approval rating and he was reelected in 1948.

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

Clinton wins by 13 points, 474-64.

[President Johnson]

Poppy Bush was too unpoluar in 1992 to win a head-to-head contest. The econmy was simply not good enough and he was seen as too out of touch.

Governor William J. Clinton (D-AR)/Senator Albert Arnold Gore (D-TN): 324 EV. (51.33%)
President George H. W. Bush (R-TX)/Vice President J. Danforth Quayle (R-IN): 214 EV. (45.36%)

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

 

. 55-42.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

Poppy Bush was too unpoluar in 1992 to win a head-to-head contest. The econmy was simply not good enough and he was seen as too out of touch.

Governor William J. Clinton (D-AR)/Senator Albert Arnold Gore (D-TN): 324 EV. (51.33%)
President George H. W. Bush (R-TX)/Vice President J. Danforth Quayle (R-IN): 214 EV. (45.36%)

                                                                                                                                                                                         
I will never understand people who think Bush could have won WI, a Dukakis state, in 1992. Never.

[Alabama_Indy10]

Clinton still wins big

[mencken]

Poppy Bush was too unpoluar in 1992 to win a head-to-head contest. The econmy was simply not good enough and he was seen as too out of touch.

Governor William J. Clinton (D-AR)/Senator Albert Arnold Gore (D-TN): 324 EV. (51.33%)
President George H. W. Bush (R-TX)/Vice President J. Danforth Quayle (R-IN): 214 EV. (45.36%)

                                                                                                                                                                                         
I will never understand people who think Bush could have won WI, a Dukakis state, in 1992. Never.

The Upper Midwest trended pretty R in 1992, after hitting rock-bottom there due to the farm crisis. Persuading 20% of Perot voters to switch to Bush in Wisconsin does not seem like such an unreasonable assumption, especially when you go through the county-by-county swing numbers.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Clinton still would've won.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Clinton/Gore (D) 289 EV
Bush/Quayle (R) 249 EV

I'd give the popular vote something like 50-49 or 51-48 to Clinton. 

[Bojack Horseman]

Clinton would have won a solid majority of the popular vote and probably about the same electoral map.