2017 Virginia HoD Thread

[Badger]

I'm glad to see Danica Roem is trouncing Del. Bob Marshall, with 85% precincts reporting in.  

Can we take a few minutes to appreciate how awesome it is that the first transgender lawmaker in the country got elected tonight, and defeated the most vocal culture-warrior conservative lawmaker in the state to do so? And she wasn't even from a stereotypically progressive place -- Manassas is a small city with a lot of touches of "old Virginia". I worked down there in 2012 for Tim Kaine's campaign and am pretty shocked at how much things have changed in just the past five years. Great, great story.

This may very well be the coolest thing tonight.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Fun fact: Democrats haven't picked up this many Republican seats in the VA House of Delegates since... 1899.

It was in fact 1897.

quoting myself from AAD:

"1899" I'm guessing may just be because the list on wikipedia goes back that far, but yes, it took a generation after reconstruction for the disenfranchisement of blacks to fully take hold in VA as elsehwere, culminating in the 1902 Constitution.

I looked into the question of party strength in the assembly at this time and finally found this site: (The Virginia Elections and State Elected Officials Database Project)   There was in fact a big gain for the Democrats, from about 70 to 95 members, but in 1897. The shift of the Democrats toward the direction of Bryan, represented that year by very successful Gov. candidate James Hoge Tyler, was a draw for many who had been first Readjusters, then Republicans and Populists, to join the Democrats.  But just a few years later, the new political order would restrict many of these people from voting (at least if they didn't vote the right way).

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Republicans have been officially called the winner in 84, and Dems in 85. 48-47 D with 27,28,40,68,94 outstanding.

[Ebsy]

So in some of these races it is going to go to absentees and provisional ballots. Could definitely see a result or two flip.

[publicunofficial]

I'm glad to see Danica Roem is trouncing Del. Bob Marshall, with 85% precincts reporting in.  

Can we take a few minutes to appreciate how awesome it is that the first transgender lawmaker in the country got elected tonight, and defeated the most vocal culture-warrior conservative lawmaker in the state to do so? And she wasn't even from a stereotypically progressive place -- Manassas is a small city with a lot of touches of "old Virginia". I worked down there in 2012 for Tim Kaine's campaign and am pretty shocked at how much things have changed in just the past five years. Great, great story.

Bob Marshall's own sister agrees:

[Baki]

It's going to be a wonderfull Christmas for them this year.

[heatcharger]

Here's what I knew going into yesterday night: Virginia Democrats had a great recruiting cycle. The candidates and their campaigns were energized and well organized. They were also well funded and outraised many of their Republican opponents.

But I thought the "Republican DNA" of many of these districts that flipped would end up saving a lot of these Rs even if Gillespie was gonna go down. Instead, suburbanites rioted in the voting booth, as Naso would say. It is now no longer taboo to them to vote a straight D ticket, and that should be a scary thing for Republicans.

Other things:

The HD-13 race is obviously one that is gonna get some national attention because of the circumstances, but I should say that Roem ran a hyper-localized race running almost exclusively on transportation issues. Regardless of my personal opinions about the candidates, it's great that a message like that can be lead to big electoral success.

And wow, the 2019 elections just got stupidly important. Defending 50/51 seats is absolutely not gonna be a walk in the park even if Trump is highly unpopular and even if the Republican brand is permanently damaged in Virginia. The GOP never goes down without trying everything, and they'll always have a lot of money on their side.

And was last night the largest number of Democratic pickups in any legislature since 2008? What a time to be a Virginia Democrat.

[Badger]

I'm glad to see Danica Roem is trouncing Del. Bob Marshall, with 85% precincts reporting in.  

Can we take a few minutes to appreciate how awesome it is that the first transgender lawmaker in the country got elected tonight, and defeated the most vocal culture-warrior conservative lawmaker in the state to do so? And she wasn't even from a stereotypically progressive place -- Manassas is a small city with a lot of touches of "old Virginia". I worked down there in 2012 for Tim Kaine's campaign and am pretty shocked at how much things have changed in just the past five years. Great, great story.

Bob Marshall's own sister agrees:

He is 73, so how can she be his sister based on that profile pic? 

[Tintrlvr]

Here's what I knew going into yesterday night: Virginia Democrats had a great recruiting cycle. The candidates and their campaigns were energized and well organized. They were also well funded and outraised many of their Republican opponents.

But I thought the "Republican DNA" of many of these districts that flipped would end up saving a lot of these Rs even if Gillespie was gonna go down. Instead, suburbanites rioted in the voting booth, as Naso would say. It is now no longer taboo to them to vote a straight D ticket, and that should be a scary thing for Republicans.

Other things:

The HD-13 race is obviously one that is gonna get some national attention because of the circumstances, but I should say that Roem ran a hyper-localized race running almost exclusively on transportation issues. Regardless of my personal opinions about the candidates, it's great that a message like that can be lead to big electoral success.

And wow, the 2019 elections just got stupidly important. Defending 50/51 seats is absolutely not gonna be a walk in the park even if Trump is highly unpopular and even if the Republican brand is permanently damaged in Virginia. The GOP never goes down without trying everything, and they'll always have a lot of money on their side.

And was last night the largest number of Democratic pickups in any legislature since 2008? What a time to be a Virginia Democrat.

As is always the case with these things, the New Hampshire House of Representatives wins. The Democrats picked up 117 seats there in 2012 (was also a larger swing by percent, going from 102/400 (25.5%) to 219/400 (54.75%)).

[Oryxslayer]

It morning now, and here is essentially how things stand:

Democrats currently have 48 safe HoD seats, Republicans 47. Five seats will have to wait on provisionals, and then most likely head to recounts.

HD 27 is suburban Chesterfield currently has Roxann Robinson (R) up by 124 votes.
HD 28, outside of NOVA and Fredricksburg has Bob Thomas (R) up by 86 votes.
HD 40, in outer Fairfax has Donte Tanner (D) up by 68 votes.
HD 68, stretching from Richmond to Chesterfield currently has Dawn Adams (D) up by 326 votes.
HD 94 in Newport News has David Yancey (R) up by 12(!) votes.

If all these races break as they presently stand, it will be tied 50-50. However, Democrats might take the lead after provisionals end up counted in 94, and no doubt a full recount will take place. This will most likely determine weather Democrats have 51 or 50 seats in the HoD.

So hold onto your hats folks, in 2013 it was the recount to determine Attorney General. In 2017, it is the recounts that will determine the HoD.

[Jeppe]

Women make up 22/48 of the currently declared elected House of Delegates Democratic delegation. 2 Democratic women and 3 Democratic men are currently stuck in a recount, awaiting to see if they were elected or not.

[RedPrometheus]

How long will the recount probably take?

[Dr. Arch]

How long will the recount probably take?

[Oryxslayer]

For referance, the attorney general race in 2013 was certified in late November, and a recount was instantly called. The count took place mid-December and lasted from the 16th to the 18th. Because HoD seats are smaller, it will be quicker to count. However, we will still need to wait for the state to certify results.

[SoLongAtlas]

Hugo now up in District 40 by 15 votes. Dept of Elections has updated the page and is reporting 100% http://results.elections.virginia.gov/vaelections/2017%20November%20General/Site/Member%20House%20of%20Delegates%20(040).html

[Dr. Arch]

Hugo now up in District 40 by 15 votes. Dept of Elections has updated the page and is reporting 100% http://results.elections.virginia.gov/vaelections/2017%20November%20General/Site/Member%20House%20of%20Delegates%20(040).html

Let's see what happens with provisionals/recount.

[SoLongAtlas]

So I checked the VA Elections Dept page again. They have the updated numbers for PW but still haven't updated the Ffx portion yet. VPAP has Tanner up at https://www.vpap.org/electionresults/election-8842/map/

[SoLongAtlas]

Ffx County just came in. Hugo has won by 115 votes. http://results.elections.virginia.gov/vaelections/2017%20November%20General/Site/Member%20House%20of%20Delegates%20(040).html

[Dr. Arch]

Ffx County just came in. Hugo has won by 115 votes. http://results.elections.virginia.gov/vaelections/2017%20November%20General/Site/Member%20House%20of%20Delegates%20(040).html

Let's give it a bit.

[Oryxslayer]

So why are VPap and SoS diverging here?

BTW, 100% chance of a recount here no doubt.

[GeorgiaModerate]

So why are VPap and SoS diverging here?

BTW, 100% chance of a recount here no doubt.

Do recounts in VA typically change the totals much?

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

So why are VPap and SoS diverging here?

BTW, 100% chance of a recount here no doubt.

Do recounts in VA typically change the totals much?

Herring's lead increased by like 600 votes after the recount.

[heatcharger]

If Hugo is to survive and HD-94 makes it 50-50, he is a very strong candidate to become Speaker in a power-sharing agreement. He is the last Fairfax County Republican alive as of right now.

[SoLongAtlas]

So why are VPap and SoS diverging here?

BTW, 100% chance of a recount here no doubt.

Do recounts in VA typically change the totals much?

Not much but there is the occasional schemery by the county parties that goes on. VA is notorious for recent recounts. Under VA law, recount is done if less than 1% or if the difference is not more than 50 votes. A candidate may also petition for a recount within 10 days. https://law.lis.virginia.gov/vacode/title24.2/chapter8/section24.2-800/

[heatcharger]

If Hugo is to survive and HD-94 makes it 50-50, he is a very strong candidate to become Speaker in a power-sharing agreement. He is the last Fairfax County Republican alive as of right now.

Why would he make himself such a high profile target in 2019 though? If he survives this year, he instantly becomes the top D target in 2019

Because there's no guarantee 2019 will be anywhere near as D-friendly an environment as last night was. Off-off-year elections have terrible turnout historically, and plus if he were Speaker he could become a moderate hero and show some accomplishments.