2017 Virginia HoD Thread

[SoLongAtlas]

Wait is Simonds not appealing this? Why would she not appeal / get one more recount?

The lot draw was against her as well as the federal court judge the other day and, the sticking point, the HoD is seated on the 10th: there wouldn't be time for a second recount.

[Jeppe]

Wait is Simonds not appealing this? Why would she not appeal / get one more recount?

The lot draw was against her as well as the federal court judge the other day and, the sticking point, the HoD is seated on the 10th: there wouldn't be time for a second recount.

The Republican leadership agreed that she has the legal right to a second recount, so I don’t think there’s anything stopping her from asking for one. She just seems reluctant to drag it out again.

[BuckeyeNut]

Wait is Simonds not appealing this? Why would she not appeal / get one more recount?

The lot draw was against her as well as the federal court judge the other day and, the sticking point, the HoD is seated on the 10th: there wouldn't be time for a second recount.

Franken wasn't seated for months after the other '08 babies were sworn in. Simonds can do what she wants.

[The Other Castro]

Simonds concedes.

https://twitter.com/shelly_simonds/status/951125406106685440

[krazen1211]

Wait is Simonds not appealing this? Why would she not appeal / get one more recount?

No appeal is possible under Virginia state law. Therefore, Glory and Victory goes to the GOP.

[Virginiá]

Wait is Simonds not appealing this? Why would she not appeal / get one more recount?

No appeal is possible under Virginia state law. Therefore, Glory and Victory goes to the GOP.

dat glory

[BudgieForce]

Wait is Simonds not appealing this? Why would she not appeal / get one more recount?

No appeal is possible under Virginia state law. Therefore, Glory and Victory goes to the GOP.

dat glory

I cant tell if Krazen is trolling or just really deluded.

[Doimper]

Wait is Simonds not appealing this? Why would she not appeal / get one more recount?

No appeal is possible under Virginia state law. Therefore, Glory and Victory goes to the GOP.

dat glory

I cant tell if Krazen is trolling or just really deluded.

He constantly trolls and derails threads, but will never be banned because. .  . who knows?

[Landslide Lyndon]

Wait is Simonds not appealing this? Why would she not appeal / get one more recount?

No appeal is possible under Virginia state law. Therefore, Glory and Victory goes to the GOP.

Has your pedo friend conceded yet?

[Virginiá]

I cant tell if Krazen is trolling or just really deluded.

I genuinely think krazen can and probably with other people is reasonable and respectful, but obviously not on Atlas. He knows he can agitate people here by doing what he does, and he also seems to have a tribal sports team mentality, so he'll never actually admit Republicans may have big problems this year (unless with like-minded people), even if he thinks it himself. He'll just gloat about the few things he can and stay silent on the rest.

In this case, he knows the VAGOP got hit hard and is probably at risk in the future, but he's not going to talk about that. He's just going to rant about glorious recounts and ties, and how Big Mitch will steal more SCOTUS seats to save the day, and so on. Typical conservative cheerleader stuff

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Krazen will consider it a glorious election night if the GOP only loses one chamber, he would be Andrew Anglin or Richard Spencer if he had more than one brain cell.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/IanSams/status/995872766002909184

[KingSweden]

Lawsuit likely?

[Virginiá]

Lawsuit likely?

There's nothing to do at this point I think. All that is worth doing is ensuring that these voters are given the correct ballots in 2019, which I imagine will be a priority for the Democratic-controlled election boards.

[heatcharger]

Surprised this bit of news went unmentioned:

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1011730836645994496?s=21

There were 12 districts ruled unconstitutional by the federal court, and since there are about 22 districts adjoined with those, a new map would affect about 1/3 of the HoD.

Unfortunately I’m pretty sure those fascist goons Neil Gorsuch and Anthony Kennedy will stay this decision in no time.

[Gass3268]

Surprised this bit of news went unmentioned:

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1011730836645994496?s=21

There were 12 districts ruled unconstitutional by the federal court, and since there are about 22 districts adjoined with those, a new map would affect about 1/3 of the HoD.

Unfortunately I’m pretty sure those fascist goons Neil Gorsuch and Anthony Kennedy will stay this decision in no time.

Yeah, but I think I saw the Court has already routinely struck down maps where a set racial number (55% for the Virginia HoD) was used to draw districts.

[Virginiá]

There were 12 districts ruled unconstitutional by the federal court, and since there are about 22 districts adjoined with those, a new map would affect about 1/3 of the HoD.

Unfortunately I’m pretty sure those fascist goons Neil Gorsuch and Anthony Kennedy will stay this decision in no time.

I was so excited to see this this morning!

This case was on remand from SCOTUS which actually told the lower court to reconsider it's "not unconstitutional gerrymander" decision. I don't think SCOTUS will stay it.

This means the General Assembly will need to redraw the maps with Northam having veto power. Not an absolute guarantee but a court-appointed special master will probably need to do it, and that is good news for the Democrats.

This is what I was saying would really do the GOP in for sure if it came back favorable. Next legislative elections, the VAGOP is finished.

[heatcharger]

Yeah, but I think I saw the Court has already routinely struck down maps where a set racial number (55% for the Virginia HoD) was used to draw districts.

This case was on remand from SCOTUS which actually told the lower court to reconsider it's "not unconstitutional gerrymander" decision. I don't think SCOTUS will stay it.

Hmm, maybe. SCOTUS struck down a lower court ruling on NC recently, so I’m not sure really. Though yeah, that was a partisan gerrymandering case, not a racial gerrymandering one. We’ll have to wait and see.

I’m guessing this will affect the Hampton Roads and Fredericksburg seats primarily, yes?

Hampton Roads and Richmond:

[Oryxslayer]

There were 12 districts ruled unconstitutional by the federal court, and since there are about 22 districts adjoined with those, a new map would affect about 1/3 of the HoD.

Unfortunately I’m pretty sure those fascist goons Neil Gorsuch and Anthony Kennedy will stay this decision in no time.

I was so excited to see this this morning!

This case was on remand from SCOTUS which actually told the lower court to reconsider it's "not unconstitutional gerrymander" decision. I don't think SCOTUS will stay it.

This means the General Assembly will need to redraw the maps with Northam having veto power. Not an absolute guarantee but a court-appointed special master will probably need to do it, and that is good news for the Democrats.

This is what I was saying would really do the GOP in for sure if it came back favorable. Next legislative elections, the VAGOP is finished.

I’m guessing this will affect the Hampton Roads and Fredericksburg seats primarily, yes?

Also probably the Richmond/Southside seats as well. I assume NOVA probbaly goes untouched.

Also the article notes how this is similar to the 2016 case, so it might end up approved. If the case goes through it just icing on the cake for the expected D trifecta gain in 2019.

Yeah, but I think I saw the Court has already routinely struck down maps where a set racial number (55% for the Virginia HoD) was used to draw districts.

This case was on remand from SCOTUS which actually told the lower court to reconsider it's "not unconstitutional gerrymander" decision. I don't think SCOTUS will stay it.

Hmm, maybe. SCOTUS struck down a lower court ruling on NC recently, so I’m not sure really. Though yeah, that was a partisan gerrymandering case, not a racial gerrymandering one. We’ll have to wait and see.

I’m guessing this will affect the Hampton Roads and Fredericksburg seats primarily, yes?

Hampton Roads and Richmond:

Like during the 2016 Florida or Virginia cases, simply striking down seats in a specific area is going to resuffle the entire map in those regions.

[Gass3268]

There were 12 districts ruled unconstitutional by the federal court, and since there are about 22 districts adjoined with those, a new map would affect about 1/3 of the HoD.

Unfortunately I’m pretty sure those fascist goons Neil Gorsuch and Anthony Kennedy will stay this decision in no time.

I was so excited to see this this morning!

This case was on remand from SCOTUS which actually told the lower court to reconsider it's "not unconstitutional gerrymander" decision. I don't think SCOTUS will stay it.

This means the General Assembly will need to redraw the maps with Northam having veto power. Not an absolute guarantee but a court-appointed special master will probably need to do it, and that is good news for the Democrats.

This is what I was saying would really do the GOP in for sure if it came back favorable. Next legislative elections, the VAGOP is finished.

I’m guessing this will affect the Hampton Roads and Fredericksburg seats primarily, yes?

Also probably the Richmond/Southside seats as well. I assume NOVA probbaly goes untouched.

Also the article notes how this is similar to the 2016 case, so it might end up approved. If the case goes through it just icing on the cake for the expected D trifecta gain in 2019.

I remember there being a Supreme Court decision earlier in the decade where after they ruled that there needed to be another miniority seat in the DFW area. The judge assigned to redraw the map proceded to redraw the entire map, Texas challenged, and the Supreme Court ruled that the orginal intent of the map had to repected, other than the seat that was found to be illegal and the sorounding areas.

It is possible that this process could be different, because you will have a Democratic Governor that will in all likelihood veto whatever the legislature sends his way, so I don't know if they view the original intent from 2011.

[Nyvin]

The R gerrymander in NoVA is pretty much useless nowadays anyway.  

This is exactly the area where Dems would need to win in to get a majority in 2019 (That and HD-40).

Here's the R-held districts that I think could be the most affected:

HD-27:  50.9% Northam - 47.6% Gillespie

HD-62: 49.5% - 49.4%

HD-76: 49.8% - 49.2%  

HD-83: 50.3% - 48.3%

HD-84: 52.1% - 46.7%

HD-91: 47.3 - 51.5%

HD-91: 56% - 42.7%

HD-100: 52.7 - 46.3%

Why the Republicans hold a 56% Northam district I guess I'll never know.

These on top of Tim Hugo's NoVA seat that went 54.7% Northam should make the HoD a breeze for the Democrats next year.

[Zaybay]

This lawsuit is the final nail in the VAGOP coffin. There is no way they can come back from this, and even without the lawsuit, its very likely that the Dems would still get a trifecta. The bench is now weak and the GOP are isolated in the west and center, self packing themselves. The Dems will have redistricting power in 2020, and the GOP will not be saved.

[Frodo]

This lawsuit is the final nail in the VAGOP coffin. There is no way they can come back from this, and even without the lawsuit, its very likely that the Dems would still get a trifecta. The bench is now weak and the GOP are isolated in the west and center, self packing themselves. The Dems will have redistricting power in 2020, and the GOP will not be saved.

This is exactly why I think that Republicans in the General Assembly will agree to an independent redistricting commission (inspired by One Virginia 2021), probably next year.  

There's nothing like staring into the abyss to concentrate the mind.....

[Nyvin]

This lawsuit is the final nail in the VAGOP coffin. There is no way they can come back from this, and even without the lawsuit, its very likely that the Dems would still get a trifecta. The bench is now weak and the GOP are isolated in the west and center, self packing themselves. The Dems will have redistricting power in 2020, and the GOP will not be saved.

This is exactly why I think that Republicans in the General Assembly will agree to an independent redistricting commission (inspired by One Virginia 2021), probably next year.  

There's nothing like staring into the abyss to concentrate the mind.....

I'd almost be against an independent commission in Virginia anymore.   At least until Texas/North Carolina adopt something similar.

[junior chįmp]

This lawsuit is the final nail in the VAGOP coffin. There is no way they can come back from this, and even without the lawsuit, its very likely that the Dems would still get a trifecta. The bench is now weak and the GOP are isolated in the west and center, self packing themselves. The Dems will have redistricting power in 2020, and the GOP will not be saved.

This is exactly why I think that Republicans in the General Assembly will agree to an independent redistricting commission (inspired by One Virginia 2021), probably next year.  

There's nothing like staring into the abyss to concentrate the mind.....

I'd almost be against an independent commission in Virginia anymore.   At least until Texas/North Carolina adopt something similar.

Yeah Democrats are pussies and never play hardball with this stuff. They’d rather be self-righteous and handcuff themselves while Republicans go about their maps unanswered

With Kennedy gone...independent redistricting commissions will most likely be ruled un-constitutional by SCOTUS. It's time for Dems to repeal independent commissions and just gerrymander the hell out of every state like never before. There shouldn't be a single GOP district in NY, CA, or VA.