DCCC expands their target list

[MT Treasurer]

Why do you have such a hatred for McCaskill?

LOL, not this again. Generally, a Senate seat is much more valuable than a House district, and the GOP has no business losing this race after what happened in 2012 and given McCaskill's voting record and approval ratings, period. Same is true for Indiana, but Donnelly has been much more moderate (at least on paper) and is a better fit for his state.

Let's make sure there are no Akins or Mourdocks this time around.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

I'd rather go after Calvert in CA-42 than Hunter. Lots more room to grow there and it'd lay the foundation for a stronger effort in 2020/2022.

I certainly applaud the confidence, but Hunter's district will be the last in Southern California to fall to the Democrats.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We have a ways to go, but the GOP has its hands full of Trump scandals.  Dems need to start winning again, just like McCaskill will win.

[publicunofficial]

The ultimate concern troll is "Are the Democrats trying TOO hard to win?"

[The Arizonan]

I'm surprised that my congressman made it on this list since he seems inoffensive and uncontroversial and in a comfortably Republican district.

Assuming you're in VA, I wouldn't call either Garrett or Brat "inoffensive" or "uncontroversial." Fair point about them being in comfortably Republican districts, although it makes sense that they would be listed as wave insurance.

I was talking about David Schweikert who flies under the radar.

[Brittain33]

I was talking about David Schweikert who flies under the radar.

Yes, I can sort of imagine someone saying "it's the GA-6" of Arizona by affluence but Trump still won it by 10 points.

[Virginiá]

Hell, Garrett is pro (ish) pot. He voted against the first obamacare repeal. He's no Robert Hurt, but he's also no Virgil Goode. I cant think of anything Garrett has said or done that would single him out from a generic republican. If Colonel tobacco lobbyist couldn't get elected in the 5th against a generic republican, I dont know who can.

He seems pretty low key, but fwiw, this could probably be weaponized in ads next year: https://youtu.be/lxWFwKsVAfw?t=28s

General lines of attack:

"I voted for a bill I didn't read, and that bill would take healthcare away from tens of millions"
"they didn't vote for me, so who cares"

Either way, fielding a strong candidate against Garrett seems more like basic wave insurance.

[Virginiá]

DCCC is getting too over-confident

I fully expect them to blown 2018 like they did 2016

It is wave insurance. They did the same thing in 2006, albeit seems like more targets this time around. This is the right way to do it - good recruits are practically throwing themselves at the party right now, and 2018 is arguably the best chance they will have for the foreseeable future to make large gains. Well, that is, unless Trump goes down in flames in 2020.

[Virginiá]

If they run 2018 as the ''Trump=bad man'' campaign...they are going to lose. If the Democrats dont offer a solid alternative to the Republicans policy proposals, they will not win. So far, the Democrats have done everything in their power to kill any grassroots movement within their own party aimed at changing it's failed policies.

I dunno. I have to disagree with you there. The midterm can't all be about Trump, but the groundwork for their primary message (corrupt Republicans, ethics, etc) seems sound for a midterm. Midterm elections just aren't the same as presidential elections, which are more policy-focused. People aren't paying as much attention to policy proposals. Democrats need a coherent policy-based message as well, but it's not going to be the driving factor. You can look back on other midterms and see similar patterns. The out-party's success rises and falls based on the president's image/approval ratings and the general mood of the country.

[heatcharger]

DCCC is getting too over-confident

I fully expect them to blown 2018 like they did 2016

It is wave insurance. They did the same thing in 2006, albeit seems like more targets this time around. This is the right way to do it - good recruits are practically throwing themselves at the party right now, and 2018 is arguably the best chance they will have for the foreseeable future to make large gains. Well, that is, unless Trump goes down in flames in 2020.

If they run 2018 as the ''Trump=bad man'' campaign...they are going to lose. If the Democrats dont offer a solid alternative to the Republicans policy proposals, they will not win. So far, the Democrats have done everything in their power to kill any grassroots movement within their own party aimed at changing it's failed policies.

You seem very intent on copying Tea Party tactics but then forget that they ran on Obama = bad man and it worked out wonderfully for them.

If polls show that a majority of the country wants to impeach him, Democrats would be dumb not to make the election about him. You would assume most everyone who wants that will vote for a Democratic congressman.

[Virginiá]

Comparing previous mid-terms to the present day is useless. Polarization is the highest today its been since the end of the Civil War. Simply hoping the Dems  win solely based on the fact that Trump is a low-life is a losing strategy. If Trump just shuts his mouth and acts on his best behavior before the mid-terms...it's probably enough to carry the GOP to the finish line.

It isn't though. We just came off of 8 years under a Democratic president who spent most of his tenure with low-40s approval ratings, and that cost Democrats a lot. I don't really have anything else to add, other than that I think those 8 years have kind of given people an inaccurate impression of how midterms work, and even more so, the limits of the Democrats' potential success.

I could be wrong, but I really don't think I am on this.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Trump scandals might be enough to push the Democrats to a win, but the real winning issue for them is health care.

[Figueira]

I'm surprised that my congressman made it on this list since he seems inoffensive and uncontroversial and in a comfortably Republican district.

low

Assuming you're in VA, I wouldn't call either Garrett or Brat "inoffensive" or "uncontroversial." Fair point about them being in comfortably Republican districts, although it makes sense that they would be listed as wave insurance.

Hell, Garrett is pro (ish) pot. He voted against the first obamacare repeal. He's no Robert Hurt, but he's also no Virgil Goode. I cant think of anything Garrett has said or done that would single him out from a generic republican. If Colonel tobacco lobbyist couldn't get elected in the 5th against a generic republican, I dont know who can.

I was thinking of that "small potatoes" comment he made. Obviously not enough to beat him by itself, but I wouldn't call him "inoffensive." Plus he voted in favor of the second Obamacare repeal attempt, which is what matters (unless there's a third one later).

And yeah, both Dakotas should be targeted, although I'm not optimistic about either.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Guys it's 4 months into the first term its way to early to get all be t out of shape over midterm messaging heck I read an article by Nate Cohn (I think it or maybe it was Silver) saying dems are planning on making 2018 just as much about the AHCA as Trump

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Guys it's 4 months into the first term its way to early to get all be t out of shape over midterm messaging heck I read an article by Nate Cohn (I think it or maybe it was Silver) saying dems are planning on making 2018 just as much about the AHCA as Trump

The GOP were planning their moves when Obama got into office well before 2010 midterms.  I think Dems will have their chance in 2018

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

I wonder if the announcement of IN-2 is either a subtle inducement of Buttigieg to make a run, or a sign that he's already been recruited.

[Yank2133]

DCCC is getting too over-confident

I fully expect them to blown 2018 like they did 2016

It is wave insurance. They did the same thing in 2006, albeit seems like more targets this time around. This is the right way to do it - good recruits are practically throwing themselves at the party right now, and 2018 is arguably the best chance they will have for the foreseeable future to make large gains. Well, that is, unless Trump goes down in flames in 2020.

If they run 2018 as the ''Trump=bad man'' campaign...they are going to lose. If the Democrats dont offer a solid alternative to the Republicans policy proposals, they will not win. So far, the Democrats have done everything in their power to kill any grassroots movement within their own party aimed at changing it's failed policies.

Yeah, this is bull****.

The Democrats have made the mid-terms about healthcare. In fact the majority of the ads that the DCCC are running has been on healthcare and linking vulnerable R's to the AHCA.

This post just reeks of bashing Democrats for the sake of bashing Democrats.

[Ebsy]

Hearing a lot of chatter and names raised for MO-02. Nothing too firm yet though.

[Webnicz]

I'm surprised that my congressman made it on this list since he seems inoffensive and uncontroversial and in a comfortably Republican district.

Assuming you're in VA, I wouldn't call either Garrett or Brat "inoffensive" or "uncontroversial." Fair point about them being in comfortably Republican districts, although it makes sense that they would be listed as wave insurance.

I was talking about David Schweikert who flies under the radar.

Boy would it be great to have Dem win in the phoenix burbs for once. And if its going to be in any of the PHX burb CD's it would be CD6, and that is a long shot. But for someone like me in And Biggs district just the though of DCCC making a play in 6 makes me jealous

[Nyvin]

DCCC is getting too over-confident

I fully expect them to blown 2018 like they did 2016

It is wave insurance. They did the same thing in 2006, albeit seems like more targets this time around. This is the right way to do it - good recruits are practically throwing themselves at the party right now, and 2018 is arguably the best chance they will have for the foreseeable future to make large gains. Well, that is, unless Trump goes down in flames in 2020.

If they run 2018 as the ''Trump=bad man'' campaign...they are going to lose. If the Democrats dont offer a solid alternative to the Republicans policy proposals, they will not win. So far, the Democrats have done everything in their power to kill any grassroots movement within their own party aimed at changing it's failed policies.

I know you want to just post that Democrats are perennial failures, but there actually is a lot of grassroots movements out there.   Some of which we haven't seen for a long, long time.   

[Hoosier_Nick]

Buttigieg should run in IN-02.

[BuckeyeNut]

OH-10 is only a good target on paper. Mike Turner is very popular and always over performs. OH-14 is actually a pretty good target, though.

[#gravelgang #lessiglad]

Buttigieg should run in IN-02.

I'm a fan of Pete, but I'm also skeptical that he is able to win IN-02. Where would he find the votes to defeat Walorski outside of South Bend? The regional demographics seem to be shifting away from the Democrats in IN-02 outside of the greater South Bend area.

That being said! If Buttigeg wants to earn his "rising star" badge, he'd better win this race - a relatively moderate (if incumbent-favoring... FWIW Donnelly managed to hold on to this seat in the awful 2010 wave) WWC district should be pickup material.

[BuckeyeNut]

Buttigieg should run in IN-02.

I'm a fan of Pete, but I'm also skeptical that he is able to win IN-02. Where would he find the votes to defeat Walorski outside of South Bend? The regional demographics seem to be shifting away from the Democrats in IN-02 outside of the greater South Bend area.

That being said! If Buttigeg wants to earn his "rising star" badge, he'd better win this race - a relatively moderate (if incumbent-favoring... FWIW Donnelly managed to hold on to this seat in the awful 2010 wave) WWC district should be pickup material.

IN-02 got a fair bit more conservative upon redistricting, IIRC.

[#gravelgang #lessiglad]

Buttigieg should run in IN-02.

I'm a fan of Pete, but I'm also skeptical that he is able to win IN-02. Where would he find the votes to defeat Walorski outside of South Bend? The regional demographics seem to be shifting away from the Democrats in IN-02 outside of the greater South Bend area.

That being said! If Buttigeg wants to earn his "rising star" badge, he'd better win this race - a relatively moderate (if incumbent-favoring... FWIW Donnelly managed to hold on to this seat in the awful 2010 wave) WWC district should be pickup material.

IN-02 got a fair bit more conservative upon redistricting, IIRC.

Great catch. Yes, it went from R+2 to R+7. And has drifted to R+12 since. It would be a tall order for Pete.