DCCC expands their target list
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  DCCC expands their target list
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Author Topic: DCCC expands their target list  (Read 9164 times)
Gass3268
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« on: May 22, 2017, 10:33:16 AM »

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windjammer
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« Reply #1 on: May 22, 2017, 10:45:40 AM »

Wow, all of them are conservative districts.
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #2 on: May 22, 2017, 10:48:19 AM »

Wow, all of them are conservative districts.

A bunch of those have been considered swing districts in the recent past (some were even held by Democrats in the recent past) or would have been but had/have very strong incumbents (thinking of Fred Upton in particular).
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Gass3268
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« Reply #3 on: May 22, 2017, 10:50:02 AM »

Wow, all of them are conservative districts.

Agreed, though I think a candidate with strong Bernie support could win in NY-21.
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GlobeSoc
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« Reply #4 on: May 22, 2017, 10:51:34 AM »

Thèse all seem like historically ultra conservative suburbs or 'right democrat' areas. Except for MO-02 and maybe WV-03, I dont see a scénario where these seats are in thé path to a majority.
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Stranger in a strange land
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« Reply #5 on: May 22, 2017, 11:16:29 AM »

I would love for Dipsh[inks] Devin, Rohrabacher, and Hunter to lose. The Alt-Right Tears would be so sweet.
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The Arizonan
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« Reply #6 on: May 22, 2017, 11:29:34 AM »

I'm surprised that my congressman made it on this list since he seems inoffensive and uncontroversial and in a comfortably Republican district.
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Orser67
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« Reply #7 on: May 22, 2017, 11:40:26 AM »

I'll be happy if Democrats pick up even one of these seats
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Skunk
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« Reply #8 on: May 22, 2017, 11:42:13 AM »

If Democrats are winning any of these then that means that control may very well be in play.
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Not_Madigan
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« Reply #9 on: May 22, 2017, 11:42:54 AM »

I'll be happy if Democrats pick up even one of these seats

They should put everything they would put into these into winning Paul Ryan's seat, the people there dislike him.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #10 on: May 22, 2017, 11:44:13 AM »

I'll be happy if Democrats pick up even one of these seats

They should put everything they would put into these into winning Paul Ryan's seat, the people there dislike him.

Agree, if you are going to possibly contest these seats, WI-01 is in the same range.
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PAK Man
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« Reply #11 on: May 22, 2017, 11:44:24 AM »

Here's the ones that make sense to me:

- FL-16 (Buchanan had a very close call in his first term, but hasn't been seriously challenged since)

- IL-12 (Democrats held this seat for more than 25 years and only lost it in the GOP wave of 2014. Plus Bill Enyart ran ahead of Obama here)

- IN-02 (Walorski nearly lost her first term in 2012, despite the fact the district was Gerrymandered to elect a Republican. Dems put it on the radar last year but never did anything)

- MI-01 (Held by a Democrat for years, and Benishek always came close to losing)

- NM-02 (Dems held it for a single term from 2009-2011)

- OH-14 (Dems did pretty well here in 2012)

- WV-03 (Dems held it for 40 years before losing it in 2014, plus they have a good candidate running)

The rest I don't really see being competitive at all.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #12 on: May 22, 2017, 11:45:28 AM »

In theory, GA-7's fundamentals are even more competitive than GA-6's, so I'm glad to see it's being targeted.
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YPestis25
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« Reply #13 on: May 22, 2017, 11:53:10 AM »

Would you mind posting the link where you got the list from?

Also very happy to see the MO-2nd on the list.
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ajc0918
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« Reply #14 on: May 22, 2017, 12:02:32 PM »

FL-06 isn't happening barring, they're probably putting this seat on the list to encourage DeSantis to challenge Rick Scott in the Senate primary. This isn't a seat I would see being in play.

FL-16 could potentially be in play with a strong recruit but I don't think a strong enough recruit exists. Trump won this seat by 11%ish so this would be a challenge. I could see Vern retiring though and maybe that would change something.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #15 on: May 22, 2017, 12:03:21 PM »

Would you mind posting the link where you got the list from?

Also very happy to see the MO-2nd on the list.

It was from a tweet with no link, but it was reported by lot of mainstream reporters.
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YPestis25
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« Reply #16 on: May 22, 2017, 12:08:40 PM »

Would you mind posting the link where you got the list from?

Also very happy to see the MO-2nd on the list.

It was from a tweet with no link, but it was reported by lot of mainstream reporters.

Great, thanks!
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #17 on: May 22, 2017, 12:34:07 PM »

In theory, GA-7's fundamentals are even more competitive than GA-6's, so I'm glad to see it's being targeted.

The AJC had a story about GA-7 being targeted: http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2017/05/22/gwinnett-based-house-seat-could-be-next-target-for-georgia-dems/
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Mr. Reactionary
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« Reply #18 on: May 22, 2017, 12:52:13 PM »

I'm surprised that my congressman made it on this list since he seems inoffensive and uncontroversial and in a comfortably Republican district.
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Figueira
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« Reply #19 on: May 22, 2017, 12:57:31 PM »

Wow, all of them are conservative districts.

Well obviously. Any Republican-held district that is in any way not "conservative" is going to be on the first list. Unless you're referring to a specific type of conservatism?

Anyway, I like this list, although I wish AK-AL, UT-04, and OH-16 were on there (I'm probably forgetting a few). Also MT-AL but that's a special case since it could have a Democratic incumbent (and if Gianforte wins, their decision will have to depend on his margin on Thursday). Good mix of rural and suburban districts.
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Figueira
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« Reply #20 on: May 22, 2017, 01:01:01 PM »

I'm surprised that my congressman made it on this list since he seems inoffensive and uncontroversial and in a comfortably Republican district.

Assuming you're in VA, I wouldn't call either Garrett or Brat "inoffensive" or "uncontroversial." Fair point about them being in comfortably Republican districts, although it makes sense that they would be listed as wave insurance.
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crazy jimmie
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« Reply #21 on: May 22, 2017, 01:15:30 PM »

Ann Wagner has not been as popular lately and Democrats never seriously contested her district.

In a counter factual, Russ Carnahan may have been able to win it in 2012 but likely would have lost it in 2014. Democrats often win the district if they win statewide and local offices are fairly split.

And no.. I like Mia Love. Unless it is open Utah 04 will not flip.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #22 on: May 22, 2017, 01:34:41 PM »

Losing MO-02 would be unfortunate, but if it's the price we have to pay for beating McCaskill, so be it. (I believe the GOP would win the open seat by an underwhelming margin, though).

I wonder if Democrats will make a play for ND-AL if Cramer runs against Heitkamp (or even if not)? With Heitkamp at the top of the ticket, this is probably their best shot in years.

Same is true for SD-AL, to a lesser extent (with Noem running for governor).
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Not_Madigan
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« Reply #23 on: May 22, 2017, 01:37:16 PM »

Losing MO-02 would be unfortunate, but if it's the price we have to pay for beating McCaskill, so be it. (I believe the GOP would win the open seat by an underwhelming margin, though).

I wonder if Democrats will make a play for ND-AL if Cramer runs against Heitkamp (or even if not)? With Heitkamp at the top of the ticket, this is probably their best shot in years.

Same is true for SD-AL, to a lesser extent (with Noem running for governor).

Why do you have such a hatred for McCaskill?
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Mr. Reactionary
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« Reply #24 on: May 22, 2017, 01:38:37 PM »

I'm surprised that my congressman made it on this list since he seems inoffensive and uncontroversial and in a comfortably Republican district.
low

Assuming you're in VA, I wouldn't call either Garrett or Brat "inoffensive" or "uncontroversial." Fair point about them being in comfortably Republican districts, although it makes sense that they would be listed as wave insurance.

Hell, Garrett is pro (ish) pot. He voted against the first obamacare repeal. He's no Robert Hurt, but he's also no Virgil Goode. I cant think of anything Garrett has said or done that would single him out from a generic republican. If Colonel tobacco lobbyist couldn't get elected in the 5th against a generic republican, I dont know who can.
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