which party has the bigger problem?

[opebo]

I agree with you mostly, but I think Ohio already proved it's just as mindless as the rest of the country.  Withe their economy the way it is and they voted more on the gay marriage issue?  They've lost it.  Ohio will be solid GOP in 2012 methinks. 

No doubt you are correct about the mindlessness and self-destructiveness of a majority of Ohioans, but there can be little doubt that their state is, on the whole trending very slightly more 'leftward' with every election cycle.

[Josh/Devilman88]

More electoral votes are moving Democrat than Republican:

But the trends are likely to favor Democrats even more in the future:

Are you stupid?  TX and NC are not trending to the left.

You are apparently too stupid to read - the map on which Texas and North Carolina trend 'left' is clearly labeled 'the future'.  I hardly think anyone can dispute that these two states will trend Democrat in future, though whether it will be enough to every tip them to a Democrat Presidential candidate is debatable.

Hmm No if you look the the trending of both states they are trening more to the right.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

The problem with analizing the trend ofTX is that there's been a George Bush of TX on the GOP ticket for 6 of the last 7 elections, and then there was LBJ on the Democratic ticket in the '60s. Some of the shift from 1964 to 2004 can be explained by home states.

[12th Doctor]

The only reason Kerry one here in 2004 was because of his military record, his connection to Heinz and vote fraud in Philadelphia, which a recently released study said is now the vote fraud capital of the US.

Yeah, right.

Which one of these are you denying.  They are all pretty much the truth.  Military service in a lot of places in PA (like many similar places in the South) is golden, even if the Republicans did call it out, it probably still helped him, on the whole.  The Heinz people still carry a lot of weight in the Pittsburgh area.  I would bet that that was probably at least 40,000 votes, at least right there, combine the hometown feel of the campaign in Western, PA, esspecially the Southwest, with the military record, and it gave him about the same boost the Dems would have got in Arkansas and Tennessee if they had run Clark.  Finally... well, I have nothing to say other than that is what the study said.  I provided a link.

Unlike what some Dems seem to think, that 19 point lead that the exit polls gave Kerry here did not hold.  You guys seem to forget that, esspecially when you called PA two hours after the polls closed, even though, percentage wise, it was closer than Ohio.  Not to mention that this state used to give huge wins to Dem candidates and only flirted with landslide Republicans.  So, if the Republicans can't win here, the Dems have no shot in Ohio and Florida.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Time to wheel out this again methinks:

[MissCatholic]

If a successful Republican manages to win a couple of northeastern states the likelihood is that they will all fall.

But the south is very difficult for the dems to win. Arkansas needs some work but places like Alabama, Mississippi, South Carolina and Georgia need alot of work.

The populations are growing yet they are having no imapct on the result. So as northerners move to the south. The small states in the northeast have a better chance of voting Republican.

If you look at the Northeast - Republicans have 5/20 while the democrats have 4/20.

Republicans haven't won two states in the northeast since 1988. While the dems won 3 in 1996 but he was from the south. So we cant suggest how well a Republican would do in the northeast if they were from there.

But i thnk the dems have a bigger problem. But the dems are in a better position than they were in 1980.

[Virginian87]

The only reason Kerry one here in 2004 was because of his military record, his connection to Heinz and vote fraud in Philadelphia, which a recently released study said is now the vote fraud capital of the US.

Yeah, right.

Which one of these are you denying.  They are all pretty much the truth.  Military service in a lot of places in PA (like many similar places in the South) is golden, even if the Republicans did call it out, it probably still helped him, on the whole.  The Heinz people still carry a lot of weight in the Pittsburgh area.  I would bet that that was probably at least 40,000 votes, at least right there, combine the hometown feel of the campaign in Western, PA, esspecially the Southwest, with the military record, and it gave him about the same boost the Dems would have got in Arkansas and Tennessee if they had run Clark.  Finally... well, I have nothing to say other than that is what the study said.  I provided a link.

Unlike what some Dems seem to think, that 19 point lead that the exit polls gave Kerry here did not hold.  You guys seem to forget that, esspecially when you called PA two hours after the polls closed, even though, percentage wise, it was closer than Ohio.  Not to mention that this state used to give huge wins to Dem candidates and only flirted with landslide Republicans.  So, if the Republicans can't win here, the Dems have no shot in Ohio and Florida.

I thought Kerry won Pennsylvania because of the increasing Democratic strength in the suburbs.  It seems to me that to win Pennsylvania, a candidate just needs to win Philadelphia and Pittsburgh and some of the smaller cities like Scranton, Reading, and Allentown.  I'm not from Pa., but I do know that these towns are pretty blue-collar.  Shouldn't that help Democrats in Pennsylvania, or are the voters in these towns voting based on social issues?

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

I've got TN state House and Senate color-coded maps to fill in for you... will send when I get a chance.

Time to wheel out this again methinks:

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I've got TN state House and Senate color-coded maps to fill in for you... will send when I get a chance.

Thanks

[minionofmidas]

harder to overcome? Reps in the NE, no question really. (We're asking compared to the SE, not to SC, the Plains, or Utah, after all.) Bigger problem is the Dems' one for now though...simply demographically a bigger problem.

[12th Doctor]

The only reason Kerry one here in 2004 was because of his military record, his connection to Heinz and vote fraud in Philadelphia, which a recently released study said is now the vote fraud capital of the US.

Yeah, right.

Which one of these are you denying.  They are all pretty much the truth.  Military service in a lot of places in PA (like many similar places in the South) is golden, even if the Republicans did call it out, it probably still helped him, on the whole.  The Heinz people still carry a lot of weight in the Pittsburgh area.  I would bet that that was probably at least 40,000 votes, at least right there, combine the hometown feel of the campaign in Western, PA, esspecially the Southwest, with the military record, and it gave him about the same boost the Dems would have got in Arkansas and Tennessee if they had run Clark.  Finally... well, I have nothing to say other than that is what the study said.  I provided a link.

Unlike what some Dems seem to think, that 19 point lead that the exit polls gave Kerry here did not hold.  You guys seem to forget that, esspecially when you called PA two hours after the polls closed, even though, percentage wise, it was closer than Ohio.  Not to mention that this state used to give huge wins to Dem candidates and only flirted with landslide Republicans.  So, if the Republicans can't win here, the Dems have no shot in Ohio and Florida.

I thought Kerry won Pennsylvania because of the increasing Democratic strength in the suburbs.  It seems to me that to win Pennsylvania, a candidate just needs to win Philadelphia and Pittsburgh and some of the smaller cities like Scranton, Reading, and Allentown.  I'm not from Pa., but I do know that these towns are pretty blue-collar.  Shouldn't that help Democrats in Pennsylvania, or are the voters in these towns voting based on social issues?

Most of those smaller cities are still in the 55% Democratic column, but that is far less than they used to get in those places.

In order for a candidate to take Pennsylvania today, he must win by a large margin in one fo the three sections (Philly, "T", Pittsburgh) and at least finish above the majority in one of the other two.  Kerry barely accomplished this in 2004.  I think he carried the Pittsburgh area by about 53% which far, far, FAR less than the 70% majorities that Democrats could once reasonably expect to comand in the region.  Even in the Reagan landslide of 1984, the Democrats managed to poll 58% in this area.

This treand is offset, however, by Republican loses in the Philadelphia metro, but not quite.  As a whole, I would say that the state had pulled about 5% in favor of the Republicans since the days of Reagan.  True, Philadelphia is growing faster than other parts of the state, but Republican end roads into the Philly exurbs like Allentown and Reading are also aparent.  As well as the fact that the Lancaster-York area has expirienced tremedous growth in the past 30 years, as has State College and these areas don't see to be getting any less Republican.

[The Dowager Mod]

Short term the Dems have a bigger problem but i think long term the republicans are gonna implode because of the perception that the far right is running things.

[Gustaf]

A18, it's not about winnign every state, but winning enough states to win an election...last time a Democratic presidential candidate even won a majority of the national popular vote was 1976, before that 1964 and before that 1944.

[danwxman]

The only reason Kerry one here in 2004 was because of his military record, his connection to Heinz and vote fraud in Philadelphia, which a recently released study said is now the vote fraud capital of the US.

Yeah, right.

Which one of these are you denying.  They are all pretty much the truth.  Military service in a lot of places in PA (like many similar places in the South) is golden, even if the Republicans did call it out, it probably still helped him, on the whole.  The Heinz people still carry a lot of weight in the Pittsburgh area.  I would bet that that was probably at least 40,000 votes, at least right there, combine the hometown feel of the campaign in Western, PA, esspecially the Southwest, with the military record, and it gave him about the same boost the Dems would have got in Arkansas and Tennessee if they had run Clark.  Finally... well, I have nothing to say other than that is what the study said.  I provided a link.

Unlike what some Dems seem to think, that 19 point lead that the exit polls gave Kerry here did not hold.  You guys seem to forget that, esspecially when you called PA two hours after the polls closed, even though, percentage wise, it was closer than Ohio.  Not to mention that this state used to give huge wins to Dem candidates and only flirted with landslide Republicans.  So, if the Republicans can't win here, the Dems have no shot in Ohio and Florida.

I thought Kerry won Pennsylvania because of the increasing Democratic strength in the suburbs.  It seems to me that to win Pennsylvania, a candidate just needs to win Philadelphia and Pittsburgh and some of the smaller cities like Scranton, Reading, and Allentown.  I'm not from Pa., but I do know that these towns are pretty blue-collar.  Shouldn't that help Democrats in Pennsylvania, or are the voters in these towns voting based on social issues?

Most of those smaller cities are still in the 55% Democratic column, but that is far less than they used to get in those places.

In order for a candidate to take Pennsylvania today, he must win by a large margin in one fo the three sections (Philly, "T", Pittsburgh) and at least finish above the majority in one of the other two.  Kerry barely accomplished this in 2004.  I think he carried the Pittsburgh area by about 53% which far, far, FAR less than the 70% majorities that Democrats could once reasonably expect to comand in the region.  Even in the Reagan landslide of 1984, the Democrats managed to poll 58% in this area.

This treand is offset, however, by Republican loses in the Philadelphia metro, but not quite.  As a whole, I would say that the state had pulled about 5% in favor of the Republicans since the days of Reagan.  True, Philadelphia is growing faster than other parts of the state, but Republican end roads into the Philly exurbs like Allentown and Reading are also aparent.  As well as the fact that the Lancaster-York area has expirienced tremedous growth in the past 30 years, as has State College and these areas don't see to be getting any less Republican.

Lancaster and York are two completely different cities. York county is very blue-collar...but it's blue-collar Republican. The city of York is a Democratic stronghold though. Lancaster has a totally different vibe. Much less blue-collar, more suburban looking...with a hip, liberal feel to downtown (though it's actually fairly Republican). The majority of Lancaster's growth is coming from Philadelphia and to a lesser extent New York, which would lead to a Democratic swing (I believe Lancaser county actually did see a slight Kerry trend). York's growth has been very rapid, and is coming mostly from Baltimore's suburbs, which at this time...seems to favor Republicans. Pennsylvania is just a state that in every little corner seems to be getting pulled in different directions. The Harrisburg metro is just a miniature Pennsylvania and is getting pulled in all directions with people moving in from all over the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic.

I've said for sometime that I expect Pennsylvania to continue to stay about the same....a Democratic leaning swing state. We would easily go Republican in a Republican landslide...but in close elections, we swing Democratic.

Reading and Allentown are not exurbs. They are cities that are now (especially Reading) becoming more and more affiliated with the Philadelphia metro. I believe Berks, Lehigh and Northampton are all at the peak of their Republican swing, and will slowly become more Democratic as they become associated with the urbane and liberal Philadelphia suburbs. Even the true Philadelphia "exurbs", which are really just subdivisions sprouting up across Lancaster and Chester counties, are swinging both counties more Democratic.

I also believe that Democratic losses probably won't get much worse across the Southwest, the areas economy by nature would give Democrats a slight advantage (though of course not as much as 50 years ago). So I'd say Democrats will still win the Pittsburgh area by about 50-55% (depending on the candidate).

Pennsylvania really isn't that hard to predict, it's just that it's so close it can swing either way. The state is seeing very little overall population growth or trend either way.

[12th Doctor]

The only reason Kerry one here in 2004 was because of his military record, his connection to Heinz and vote fraud in Philadelphia, which a recently released study said is now the vote fraud capital of the US.

Yeah, right.

Which one of these are you denying.  They are all pretty much the truth.  Military service in a lot of places in PA (like many similar places in the South) is golden, even if the Republicans did call it out, it probably still helped him, on the whole.  The Heinz people still carry a lot of weight in the Pittsburgh area.  I would bet that that was probably at least 40,000 votes, at least right there, combine the hometown feel of the campaign in Western, PA, esspecially the Southwest, with the military record, and it gave him about the same boost the Dems would have got in Arkansas and Tennessee if they had run Clark.  Finally... well, I have nothing to say other than that is what the study said.  I provided a link.

Unlike what some Dems seem to think, that 19 point lead that the exit polls gave Kerry here did not hold.  You guys seem to forget that, esspecially when you called PA two hours after the polls closed, even though, percentage wise, it was closer than Ohio.  Not to mention that this state used to give huge wins to Dem candidates and only flirted with landslide Republicans.  So, if the Republicans can't win here, the Dems have no shot in Ohio and Florida.

I thought Kerry won Pennsylvania because of the increasing Democratic strength in the suburbs.  It seems to me that to win Pennsylvania, a candidate just needs to win Philadelphia and Pittsburgh and some of the smaller cities like Scranton, Reading, and Allentown.  I'm not from Pa., but I do know that these towns are pretty blue-collar.  Shouldn't that help Democrats in Pennsylvania, or are the voters in these towns voting based on social issues?

Most of those smaller cities are still in the 55% Democratic column, but that is far less than they used to get in those places.

In order for a candidate to take Pennsylvania today, he must win by a large margin in one fo the three sections (Philly, "T", Pittsburgh) and at least finish above the majority in one of the other two.  Kerry barely accomplished this in 2004.  I think he carried the Pittsburgh area by about 53% which far, far, FAR less than the 70% majorities that Democrats could once reasonably expect to comand in the region.  Even in the Reagan landslide of 1984, the Democrats managed to poll 58% in this area.

This treand is offset, however, by Republican loses in the Philadelphia metro, but not quite.  As a whole, I would say that the state had pulled about 5% in favor of the Republicans since the days of Reagan.  True, Philadelphia is growing faster than other parts of the state, but Republican end roads into the Philly exurbs like Allentown and Reading are also aparent.  As well as the fact that the Lancaster-York area has expirienced tremedous growth in the past 30 years, as has State College and these areas don't see to be getting any less Republican.

Lancaster and York are two completely different cities. York county is very blue-collar...but it's blue-collar Republican. The city of York is a Democratic stronghold though. Lancaster has a totally different vibe. Much less blue-collar, more suburban looking...with a hip, liberal feel to downtown (though it's actually fairly Republican). The majority of Lancaster's growth is coming from Philadelphia and to a lesser extent New York, which would lead to a Democratic swing (I believe Lancaser county actually did see a slight Kerry trend). York's growth has been very rapid, and is coming mostly from Baltimore's suburbs, which at this time...seems to favor Republicans. Pennsylvania is just a state that in every little corner seems to be getting pulled in different directions. The Harrisburg metro is just a miniature Pennsylvania and is getting pulled in all directions with people moving in from all over the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic.

I've said for sometime that I expect Pennsylvania to continue to stay about the same....a Democratic leaning swing state. We would easily go Republican in a Republican landslide...but in close elections, we swing Democratic.

Reading and Allentown are not exurbs. They are cities that are now (especially Reading) becoming more and more affiliated with the Philadelphia metro. I believe Berks, Lehigh and Northampton are all at the peak of their Republican swing, and will slowly become more Democratic as they become associated with the urbane and liberal Philadelphia suburbs. Even the true Philadelphia "exurbs", which are really just subdivisions sprouting up across Lancaster and Chester counties, are swinging both counties more Democratic.

I also believe that Democratic losses probably won't get much worse across the Southwest, the areas economy by nature would give Democrats a slight advantage (though of course not as much as 50 years ago). So I'd say Democrats will still win the Pittsburgh area by about 50-55% (depending on the candidate).

Pennsylvania really isn't that hard to predict, it's just that it's so close it can swing either way. The state is seeing very little overall population growth or trend either way.

You are mostly correct, however, don't assume that those people coming from New York are going to swing the area in favor of the Democrats.  Why are they leaving New York in the first place?  I can't be sure, but I can give some educated guesses.

I missed your Pittsburgh comments, what about the economy around there do you think would keep in it in the Democratic column?  The northern and easter suburbs are treanding heavily Republican, and this tread is starting to get into the once uber Democratic strongholds like New Castle.

[TeePee4Prez]

I think supersoulty and danwxman give good points here.  I have only passed western PA, so I have to give soulty the judgement there, but also Max Power as well.   danwxman hit on the South Central/Southeast to a tee however I am getting a little skittish about Bucks County. They barely elected Kerry and upgraded to a hard right Mike Fitzpatrick for Congress over the moderate libertarian Jim Greenwood.  Had the Dems a Peter Kostmayer or libertarian leaning liberal, they would have picked up PA 8.  I have good feelings about Montgomery, Delaware, and northern Chester counties and think Lois Murphy will win PA 6.  I will have to admit PA is getting pulled in every which way and the deciding factor where I'm from will be will the Bucks Dems pull their collective heads out of their asses?  Most of the younger people I know from that area are quite liberal so there is promise.   

[Virginian87]

I think supersoulty and danwxman give good points here.  I have only passed western PA, so I have to give soulty the judgement there, but also Max Power as well.   danwxman hit on the South Central/Southeast to a tee however I am getting a little skittish about Bucks County. They barely elected Kerry and upgraded to a hard right Mike Fitzpatrick for Congress over the moderate libertarian Jim Greenwood.  Had the Dems a Peter Kostmayer or libertarian leaning liberal, they would have picked up PA 8.  I have good feelings about Montgomery, Delaware, and northern Chester counties and think Lois Murphy will win PA 6.  I will have to admit PA is getting pulled in every which way and the deciding factor where I'm from will be will the Bucks Dems pull their collective heads out of their asses?  Most of the younger people I know from that area are quite liberal so there is promise.   

I would imagine that Lackawanna County and the Lehigh Valley are strong Democratic places purely from an economic standpoint.

[TeePee4Prez]

I think supersoulty and danwxman give good points here.  I have only passed western PA, so I have to give soulty the judgement there, but also Max Power as well.   danwxman hit on the South Central/Southeast to a tee however I am getting a little skittish about Bucks County. They barely elected Kerry and upgraded to a hard right Mike Fitzpatrick for Congress over the moderate libertarian Jim Greenwood.  Had the Dems a Peter Kostmayer or libertarian leaning liberal, they would have picked up PA 8.  I have good feelings about Montgomery, Delaware, and northern Chester counties and think Lois Murphy will win PA 6.  I will have to admit PA is getting pulled in every which way and the deciding factor where I'm from will be will the Bucks Dems pull their collective heads out of their asses?  Most of the younger people I know from that area are quite liberal so there is promise.   

I would imagine that Lackawanna County and the Lehigh Valley are strong Democratic places purely from an economic standpoint.

Talk to Keystone Phil about the Lehigh Valley.  He'd disagree with you strongly.  They did elect Pat Toomey to Congress, however, it was mainly because the Dems put up morons.  We also took two recent blows in special elections, but they were also GOP held seats to begin with.  I think it's temporarily pulling right due to exurbia, but will pull back left again when it becomes suburbia.  The steel industry is dead there.  Mack Truck in Allentown is also not doing so hot either.  The GOP smelled blood there and capitalized bigtime.  Our last two hopes there are Jennifer Mann and T.J. Rooney and the first one lost a State Senate special election when Charlie Dent when on to Congress.

[12th Doctor]

I think supersoulty and danwxman give good points here.  I have only passed western PA, so I have to give soulty the judgement there, but also Max Power as well.   danwxman hit on the South Central/Southeast to a tee however I am getting a little skittish about Bucks County. They barely elected Kerry and upgraded to a hard right Mike Fitzpatrick for Congress over the moderate libertarian Jim Greenwood.  Had the Dems a Peter Kostmayer or libertarian leaning liberal, they would have picked up PA 8.  I have good feelings about Montgomery, Delaware, and northern Chester counties and think Lois Murphy will win PA 6.  I will have to admit PA is getting pulled in every which way and the deciding factor where I'm from will be will the Bucks Dems pull their collective heads out of their asses?  Most of the younger people I know from that area are quite liberal so there is promise.   

I would imagine that Lackawanna County and the Lehigh Valley are strong Democratic places purely from an economic standpoint.

Talk to Keystone Phil about the Lehigh Valley.  He'd disagree with you strongly.  They did elect Pat Toomey to Congress, however, it was mainly because the Dems put up morons.  We also took two recent blows in special elections, but they were also GOP held seats to begin with.  I think it's temporarily pulling right due to exurbia, but will pull back left again when it becomes suburbia.  The steel industry is dead there.  Mack Truck in Allentown is also not doing so hot either.  The GOP smelled blood there and capitalized bigtime.  Our last two hopes there are Jennifer Mann and T.J. Rooney and the first one lost a State Senate special election when Charlie Dent when on to Congress.

Not only that, but the valley has been tettering on the edge towards the GOP since 2000.  Both Gore and Kerry barely made it past in the Allentown area.

[Virginian87]

I think supersoulty and danwxman give good points here.  I have only passed western PA, so I have to give soulty the judgement there, but also Max Power as well.   danwxman hit on the South Central/Southeast to a tee however I am getting a little skittish about Bucks County. They barely elected Kerry and upgraded to a hard right Mike Fitzpatrick for Congress over the moderate libertarian Jim Greenwood.  Had the Dems a Peter Kostmayer or libertarian leaning liberal, they would have picked up PA 8.  I have good feelings about Montgomery, Delaware, and northern Chester counties and think Lois Murphy will win PA 6.  I will have to admit PA is getting pulled in every which way and the deciding factor where I'm from will be will the Bucks Dems pull their collective heads out of their asses?  Most of the younger people I know from that area are quite liberal so there is promise.   

I would imagine that Lackawanna County and the Lehigh Valley are strong Democratic places purely from an economic standpoint.

Talk to Keystone Phil about the Lehigh Valley.  He'd disagree with you strongly.  They did elect Pat Toomey to Congress, however, it was mainly because the Dems put up morons.  We also took two recent blows in special elections, but they were also GOP held seats to begin with.  I think it's temporarily pulling right due to exurbia, but will pull back left again when it becomes suburbia.  The steel industry is dead there.  Mack Truck in Allentown is also not doing so hot either.  The GOP smelled blood there and capitalized bigtime.  Our last two hopes there are Jennifer Mann and T.J. Rooney and the first one lost a State Senate special election when Charlie Dent when on to Congress.

Not only that, but the valley has been tettering on the edge towards the GOP since 2000.  Both Gore and Kerry barely made it past in the Allentown area.

What about Scranton/Wilkes-Barre and the anthracite coal districts?

[TeePee4Prez]

I think supersoulty and danwxman give good points here.  I have only passed western PA, so I have to give soulty the judgement there, but also Max Power as well.   danwxman hit on the South Central/Southeast to a tee however I am getting a little skittish about Bucks County. They barely elected Kerry and upgraded to a hard right Mike Fitzpatrick for Congress over the moderate libertarian Jim Greenwood.  Had the Dems a Peter Kostmayer or libertarian leaning liberal, they would have picked up PA 8.  I have good feelings about Montgomery, Delaware, and northern Chester counties and think Lois Murphy will win PA 6.  I will have to admit PA is getting pulled in every which way and the deciding factor where I'm from will be will the Bucks Dems pull their collective heads out of their asses?  Most of the younger people I know from that area are quite liberal so there is promise.   

I would imagine that Lackawanna County and the Lehigh Valley are strong Democratic places purely from an economic standpoint.

Talk to Keystone Phil about the Lehigh Valley.  He'd disagree with you strongly.  They did elect Pat Toomey to Congress, however, it was mainly because the Dems put up morons.  We also took two recent blows in special elections, but they were also GOP held seats to begin with.  I think it's temporarily pulling right due to exurbia, but will pull back left again when it becomes suburbia.  The steel industry is dead there.  Mack Truck in Allentown is also not doing so hot either.  The GOP smelled blood there and capitalized bigtime.  Our last two hopes there are Jennifer Mann and T.J. Rooney and the first one lost a State Senate special election when Charlie Dent when on to Congress.

Not only that, but the valley has been tettering on the edge towards the GOP since 2000.  Both Gore and Kerry barely made it past in the Allentown area.

What about Scranton/Wilkes-Barre and the anthracite coal districts?

They've been holding steady largely due to the fact they do not have MCMansions like the Lehigh Valley.  The economic situation in that area is quite glum.  My younger sister goes to the University of Scranton and it is a depressing area to be in except for maybe the ski resorts.  My guess is it will stay Dem for a while.

[12th Doctor]

I think supersoulty and danwxman give good points here.  I have only passed western PA, so I have to give soulty the judgement there, but also Max Power as well.   danwxman hit on the South Central/Southeast to a tee however I am getting a little skittish about Bucks County. They barely elected Kerry and upgraded to a hard right Mike Fitzpatrick for Congress over the moderate libertarian Jim Greenwood.  Had the Dems a Peter Kostmayer or libertarian leaning liberal, they would have picked up PA 8.  I have good feelings about Montgomery, Delaware, and northern Chester counties and think Lois Murphy will win PA 6.  I will have to admit PA is getting pulled in every which way and the deciding factor where I'm from will be will the Bucks Dems pull their collective heads out of their asses?  Most of the younger people I know from that area are quite liberal so there is promise.   

I would imagine that Lackawanna County and the Lehigh Valley are strong Democratic places purely from an economic standpoint.

Talk to Keystone Phil about the Lehigh Valley.  He'd disagree with you strongly.  They did elect Pat Toomey to Congress, however, it was mainly because the Dems put up morons.  We also took two recent blows in special elections, but they were also GOP held seats to begin with.  I think it's temporarily pulling right due to exurbia, but will pull back left again when it becomes suburbia.  The steel industry is dead there.  Mack Truck in Allentown is also not doing so hot either.  The GOP smelled blood there and capitalized bigtime.  Our last two hopes there are Jennifer Mann and T.J. Rooney and the first one lost a State Senate special election when Charlie Dent when on to Congress.

Not only that, but the valley has been tettering on the edge towards the GOP since 2000.  Both Gore and Kerry barely made it past in the Allentown area.

What about Scranton/Wilkes-Barre and the anthracite coal districts?

They've been holding steady largely due to the fact they do not have MCMansions like the Lehigh Valley.  The economic situation in that area is quite glum.  My younger sister goes to the University of Scranton and it is a depressing area to be in except for maybe the ski resorts.  My guess is it will stay Dem for a while.

That is a pretty fair assesment.  Even it is less Democratic than it used to be, though.

[Virginian87]

I think supersoulty and danwxman give good points here.  I have only passed western PA, so I have to give soulty the judgement there, but also Max Power as well.   danwxman hit on the South Central/Southeast to a tee however I am getting a little skittish about Bucks County. They barely elected Kerry and upgraded to a hard right Mike Fitzpatrick for Congress over the moderate libertarian Jim Greenwood.  Had the Dems a Peter Kostmayer or libertarian leaning liberal, they would have picked up PA 8.  I have good feelings about Montgomery, Delaware, and northern Chester counties and think Lois Murphy will win PA 6.  I will have to admit PA is getting pulled in every which way and the deciding factor where I'm from will be will the Bucks Dems pull their collective heads out of their asses?  Most of the younger people I know from that area are quite liberal so there is promise.   

I would imagine that Lackawanna County and the Lehigh Valley are strong Democratic places purely from an economic standpoint.

Talk to Keystone Phil about the Lehigh Valley.  He'd disagree with you strongly.  They did elect Pat Toomey to Congress, however, it was mainly because the Dems put up morons.  We also took two recent blows in special elections, but they were also GOP held seats to begin with.  I think it's temporarily pulling right due to exurbia, but will pull back left again when it becomes suburbia.  The steel industry is dead there.  Mack Truck in Allentown is also not doing so hot either.  The GOP smelled blood there and capitalized bigtime.  Our last two hopes there are Jennifer Mann and T.J. Rooney and the first one lost a State Senate special election when Charlie Dent when on to Congress.

Not only that, but the valley has been tettering on the edge towards the GOP since 2000.  Both Gore and Kerry barely made it past in the Allentown area.

What about Scranton/Wilkes-Barre and the anthracite coal districts?

They've been holding steady largely due to the fact they do not have MCMansions like the Lehigh Valley.  The economic situation in that area is quite glum.  My younger sister goes to the University of Scranton and it is a depressing area to be in except for maybe the ski resorts.  My guess is it will stay Dem for a while.

That is a pretty fair assesment.  Even it is less Democratic than it used to be, though.

Probably due to social issues.

[Keystone Phil]

I think supersoulty and danwxman give good points here.  I have only passed western PA, so I have to give soulty the judgement there, but also Max Power as well.   danwxman hit on the South Central/Southeast to a tee however I am getting a little skittish about Bucks County. They barely elected Kerry and upgraded to a hard right Mike Fitzpatrick for Congress over the moderate libertarian Jim Greenwood.  Had the Dems a Peter Kostmayer or libertarian leaning liberal, they would have picked up PA 8.  I have good feelings about Montgomery, Delaware, and northern Chester counties and think Lois Murphy will win PA 6.  I will have to admit PA is getting pulled in every which way and the deciding factor where I'm from will be will the Bucks Dems pull their collective heads out of their asses?  Most of the younger people I know from that area are quite liberal so there is promise.   

I would imagine that Lackawanna County and the Lehigh Valley are strong Democratic places purely from an economic standpoint.

Talk to Keystone Phil about the Lehigh Valley.  He'd disagree with you strongly.  They did elect Pat Toomey to Congress, however, it was mainly because the Dems put up morons.  We also took two recent blows in special elections, but they were also GOP held seats to begin with.  I think it's temporarily pulling right due to exurbia, but will pull back left again when it becomes suburbia.  The steel industry is dead there.  Mack Truck in Allentown is also not doing so hot either.  The GOP smelled blood there and capitalized bigtime.  Our last two hopes there are Jennifer Mann and T.J. Rooney and the first one lost a State Senate special election when Charlie Dent when on to Congress.

The Lehigh Valley is not what it used to be. Economic conservativism is on the rise with the more young professionals moving into the area. The Dems are having a good time in the Philly suburbs but hurting in the Lehigh Valley.

Mann and Rooney are the only Dems they have left in the area and they are overrated. The GOP has control of the area and will stay in control for awhile.

[Virginian87]

Are you a native of the Allentown-Bethlehem area, Phil?