Why are Dems overperforming in these latest special elections?

[jman123]

Are trump voters not coming out for them? Is trump losing his base?

[Hindsight was 2020]

Trump is in WH, controls both houses, and has failed to do anything with it. What should GOP be fired up about

[Yank2133]

Trump is in WH, controls both houses, and has failed to do anything with it. What should GOP be fired up about

[Technocracy Timmy]

Trump isn't losing his "base" although he has been losing those reluctant and/or Obama-Trump voters that went for him in 2016.

The base itself just isn't fired up for anything. Why would they be? They have everything at their disposal and their Party is failing so far to deliver on its promises.

[Matty]

My god, yesterday morning you guys were convinced quist would win.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Are trump voters not coming out for them? Is trump losing his base?

Yes.

I mean come on, democrats improved by 14 points compared with Hillary. It's not a bad result.

That's the real story people should be paying attention to. A 14-point swing towards Democrats nationally would be a complete wave.

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KS-4 had the same thing happen. Not sure about CA-30something and the GA-6 primary.

[ApatheticAustrian]

My god, yesterday morning you guys were convinced quist would win.

1) not really, re: the giant early vote

2) even a pet monkey should have won after the attack.

[AppleJackass]

My god, yesterday morning you guys were convinced quist would win.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Are trump voters not coming out for them? Is trump losing his base?

Yes.

I mean come on, democrats improved by 14 points compared with Hillary. It's not a bad result.

That's the real story people should be paying attention to. A 14-point swing towards Democrats nationally would be a complete wave.

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KS-4 had the same thing happen. Not sure about CA-30something and the GA-6 primary.

Dems have outperformed Hillary in all the specials so far. Hillary got 87% of the vote in CA-34, in the jungle all D's combined got 90%. (the runoff will be between two democrats) In KS-4, Hillary got 33%, Thompson got 46%. In GA-6, Hillary got 47%, in the jungle all D's combined got 49%. And in MT-AL, Hillary got 36%, Quist got 44%.

However, as you can see, the dems have yet to actually flip anything. Hopefully it happens in the GA-6 Runoff. There's also special elections for SC-5 and UT-3, but those are harder than GA-6 for dems.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The 272 map all set up for Clinton and she should of won the election.  However, despite how MI, WI and PA went, Iowa and Ohio did the Democrats in.  And the voters watched that indictment of Hillary by James Comey in PA very carefully, and it tipped Pennsylvania.

Women voters are coming out in these specials and driving out turnout in these elections.

[RI]

They're open local races. Of course they're going to be closer. Comps to Clinton are misguided at their core.

[The Arizonan]

The Democrats might be overperforming, but they're still losing the special elections.

[cinyc]

My god, yesterday morning you guys were convinced quist would win.

1) not really, re: the giant early vote

2) even a pet monkey should have won after the attack.

Only if the pet monkey invented a time machine and abolished early voting.  70+% of the vote was already cast before the assault.  This is exhibit A why no-cause early voting should be abolished.

They're open local races. Of course they're going to be closer. Comps to Clinton are misguided at their core.

Yes and no.  Yes, they are open local races and they're going to be closer, but comparisons to Clinton do inform us how other open local races might go in 2018.

[Associate Justice PiT]

     The enthusiasm gap is a huge factor; Democrats are much more fired up right now. In low-turnout special elections, this can swing results by a large margin.

[Brittain33]

The Democrats might be overperforming, but they're still losing the special elections.

Doesn't really matter, because there's no way the Dems retake the House before 2018 on special elections anyway and the swings we're seeing are enough to send good Republican candidates into retirement / avoiding open races while drawing strong Dem recruits in.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

The Democrats might be overperforming, but they're still losing the special elections.

Doesn't really matter, because there's no way the Dems retake the House before 2018 on special elections anyway and the swings we're seeing are enough to send good Republican candidates into retirement / avoiding open races while drawing strong Dem recruits in.

The average donor doesn't much care about "coming close here means we should win there", they want to see an actual win. If Dems lose GA-6, it will result in a large morale loss among donors, who will have wasted millions on the race. That's not good for 2018.

[Brittain33]

The Democrats might be overperforming, but they're still losing the special elections.

Doesn't really matter, because there's no way the Dems retake the House before 2018 on special elections anyway and the swings we're seeing are enough to send good Republican candidates into retirement / avoiding open races while drawing strong Dem recruits in.

The average donor doesn't much care about "coming close here means we should win there", they want to see an actual win. If Dems lose GA-6, it will result in a large morale loss among donors, who will have wasted millions on the race. That's not good for 2018.

I think this is a fundamental misread of the anger and determination powering millions of Democrats now through Election Day 2018.

[Maxwell]

Because a particularly controversial Republican is President.

[Figueira]

Are trump voters not coming out for them? Is trump losing his base?

Yes.

I mean come on, democrats improved by 14 points compared with Hillary. It's not a bad result.

That's the real story people should be paying attention to. A 14-point swing towards Democrats nationally would be a complete wave.

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KS-4 had the same thing happen. Not sure about CA-30something and the GA-6 primary.

That's the standard for Montana elections though.

The problem with Montana analysis is that there were so many factors from the bodyslam to Quist's bad campaigning to whatever trends have happened in Montana lately that it's impossible to draw any real conclusions from it.