Where should the Democratic Party appeal to: NOVA or Youngstown, Ohio?

[Technocracy Timmy]

1) Appealing to NOVA is significantly different than appealing to Orange County.

I thought all of the D-VA posters informed me that we're basically the same? COLLEGE EDUCATED WHITES rollin in benjamins from our high paying jobs who love us some Third way centrists right? Dat dere social liberal fiscal conservative/centrist alliance.

We're only separated by 2,300 miles. Our politics are probably the same anyhow.

[Technocracy Timmy]

But this myth of affluent Whites becoming big Democrats only seems to appear in the nerdy minds of our friends here at Atlas. 

It's not just atlas, I encounter this same mentality a lot on certain Subreddits (politicaldiscussion especially). Basically many of them have now come to the conclusion based on the 2016 election that the entire political landscape has changed. Here's the narrative I've seen time and time again: The GOP will become the populist, working class white, trade protectionist Party while the Democrats will become the globalist, free trade, cosmopolitan, technocratic elite class of white liberals + minorities.

It's incredibly frustrating to argue with this narrative time and time again. It's almost always based on trend from one election. Oh and apparently Bernie Sanders losing the primary means that he has had absolutely no influence on the direction of the Party. Riiiiiiight...

[Technocracy Timmy]

Here's the narrative I've seen time and time again: The GOP will become the populist, working class white, trade protectionist Party while the Democrats will become the globalist, free trade, cosmopolitan, technocratic elite class of white liberals + minorities.

It's incredibly frustrating to argue with this narrative time and time again. It's almost always based on trend from one election. Oh and apparently Bernie Sanders losing the primary means that he has had absolutely no influence on the direction of the Party. Riiiiiiight...

Bernie's loss obviously something to do with it, yeah. But if this narrative is so ridiculous, why are you predicting that New York will become a Republican state and Texas and Montana Democratic strongholds?

I've never said that Montana would go for the Democratic Party. I even told TD I didn't think that the Democrats would win Montana even in a realigning election.

New York is likely to become at least a tossup state by 2040 if the 2020's Democratic realignment that I think is likely to occur actually happens. By 2040 this would basically be college educated whites plus upscale minorities going for the GOP while working class whites and minorities go for the Democratic Party. The GOP needs to take root over large states as a base of support. PA, NJ, and OH would be good starting points. From then on they need to take at least one of TX, CA, NY, or FL. Given California's history I don't think it'll be there. Florida and Texas are predominantantly populated by working class whites and minority groups so I'm iffy on if they'll take root in those areas; particularly because they're sunbelt states.

New York is really the only answer in that situation (especially given its proximity to PA and NJ). They might be able to keep TX, FL, and NY all competitive by 2040 but I doubt it.

[Technocracy Timmy]

This is all speculation, really. No one knows what the party coalitions in 2040 will look like, so all we can do is make a random guess.

I personally doubt that states like Iowa will be more Democratic than New York in 2040, but whatever. Plus, I can't really imagine working class Whites being more Democratic than College educated Whites or affluent, upscale minorities by then, even though that's obviously what most Republicans on this forum want to happen.

I don't know exactly what will happen in 2040 either in terms of which Party controls which states or how strongly demographic group votes for each Party. I can take a guess based on the history of each respective Party and the fallout of a Democratic realignment in the 2020's though.

Ultimately I do think that there's both economic and generational forces that will produce a Democratic realignment in the 2020's. Realignments have happened before and I don't see why they can't happen again.

[Technocracy Timmy]

Im not positive how long wealthier voters will stay with the Democrats given that the economic direction the Democratic Party is currently taking is with Sanders and Warren. We'll see I guess.

We're seeing a re nationalization of political parties both here and in other western countries. Center party votes (but particularly the center-left) have been declining across the OECD and that trend is likely to continue given that the economic and social forces which have led up to this aren't going away.