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Author Topic: What will the political landscape look like after the 2020 election?  (Read 854 times)
Devils30
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« on: May 27, 2017, 03:10:01 pm »
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Obviously it is too early to speculate every little detail but it's possible to make some guesses. I think by the fall of 2020, Americans will be beyond tired with this administration, leading to a possible realigning election and Democratic landslide. 2020 is completely consistent with the 32-48 year patterns in political eras that include 1828,1860,1896,1932,1980.

If Democrats get the House in 2018 and/or 2020, I expect heavy pressure to pass legislation that closes tax loopholes, forgives/lessens the burden of student loans and regulates Wall Street. If the party is smart, they will attempt to get the GOP on record opposing popular bills after years of Trump fatigue.

In the Senate, a realistic 2018 includes the red state Dems holding serve and gaining Nevada. If things get really ugly for the GOP, I expect Dems to win Arizona as well. Anything better than 50/50 is really not realistic. For 2020, Dems may gain an open Maine, CO, NC and could put IA, AK in play with the right candidates. If the Dems get to 53-54, they would need to realistically consider abolishing the legislative filibuster and keep up the offensive on 2022 GOP senators in the hopes it becomes like 1934.
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« Reply #1 on: May 27, 2017, 07:02:15 pm »
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There will be a wave no doubt in 2018, and 2020 and 2022 will be just as bad for the GOP as 2010, 2014 and 2016 were for the Dems.

The FBI investigation has paralyzed the Conservative Movement and yes, Ted Cruz, has been caught with  paying hush money to Fiorina to keep her quiet about her affair.

I am hoping for the best.
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« Reply #2 on: May 27, 2017, 08:51:27 pm »
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In the Senate, a realistic 2018 includes the red state Dems holding serve and gaining Nevada.

lol. Will you ever stop predicting massive Democratic landslides?
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« Reply #3 on: May 29, 2017, 10:10:50 am »
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To the way the political landscape was from 2007-2011
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« Reply #4 on: May 29, 2017, 02:19:52 pm »
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The most the Dems can do is take Arizona and Nevada while retaining Indiana, North Dakota, and Missouri (not to mention McCaskill's approval is collapsing). Even if they do take Arizona and Nevada, that will be 50-50 and Mike Pence will be the tie breaking vote.

Their best chance is the House, but Fancy Nancy isn't very appealing to anyone.

I'd say it would be similar to 2012, more than likely.
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The_Doctor
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« Reply #5 on: May 29, 2017, 04:46:46 pm »
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Depending on what happens between now and 2019 Republican leaning.
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« Reply #6 on: May 29, 2017, 04:56:03 pm »
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bU1QPtOZQZU
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« Reply #7 on: May 29, 2017, 06:10:07 pm »
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I predict Dems get overconfident and screw things up and that Republicans will still be in control after 2020.
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« Reply #8 on: May 29, 2017, 06:38:20 pm »
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I predict Dems get overconfident and screw things up and that Republicans will still be in control after 2020.
The Democrats are really good at snatching victory from the jaws of defeat.
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« Reply #9 on: May 29, 2017, 06:59:33 pm »
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It seems clear, both going by the historical ways that midterms work and by the unique goings-on in this administration, that 2018 will be a solid Democratic victory, if not a "wave" (where a wave starts or ends is difficult to say). What'll happen in 2020 is harder to say, especially since both the Democratic and Republican primaries seem rather unpredictable at present.
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« Reply #10 on: May 29, 2017, 07:28:01 pm »
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It seems clear, both going by the historical ways that midterms work and by the unique goings-on in this administration, that 2018 will be a solid Democratic victory, if not a "wave" (where a wave starts or ends is difficult to say). What'll happen in 2020 is harder to say, especially since both the Democratic and Republican primaries seem rather unpredictable at present.

I agree that there will probably be a solid Democratic victory in 2018, but I'm curious as to what your definition of a victory looks like.

I think Democrats will come close, but ultimately fail, to take the House in 2018. I think they'll prevent a Republican supermajority in the Senate, but still sustain a net loss in their numbers in that chamber. I believe their biggest gains will be seen in governors mansions and state houses across the country.
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« Reply #11 on: May 30, 2017, 01:23:57 pm »
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It seems clear, both going by the historical ways that midterms work and by the unique goings-on in this administration, that 2018 will be a solid Democratic victory, if not a "wave" (where a wave starts or ends is difficult to say).

You said the same about 2016.
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« Reply #12 on: May 30, 2017, 01:29:17 pm »
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Trump ethics is gonna haunt him well into 2018 and 2020.
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« Reply #13 on: May 30, 2017, 02:24:42 pm »
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It seems clear, both going by the historical ways that midterms work and by the unique goings-on in this administration, that 2018 will be a solid Democratic victory, if not a "wave" (where a wave starts or ends is difficult to say). What'll happen in 2020 is harder to say, especially since both the Democratic and Republican primaries seem rather unpredictable at present.

I agree that there will probably be a solid Democratic victory in 2018, but I'm curious as to what your definition of a victory looks like.

I think Democrats will come close, but ultimately fail, to take the House in 2018. I think they'll prevent a Republican supermajority in the Senate, but still sustain a net loss in their numbers in that chamber. I believe their biggest gains will be seen in governors mansions and state houses across the country.

Victory in the American context is gains, even very small ones. Because of how only 1/3 of the Senate is elected in any given year and the very strong incumbency advantage in the House, pushing the front forward counts as a win even if you don't actually take one of the houses of Congress.

A "landslide", I would say, is gains of more than 20 seats in the House or more than 5 seats in the Senate. The former seems rather likely if not certain for Democrats, while the latter is pretty much impossible.

It seems clear, both going by the historical ways that midterms work and by the unique goings-on in this administration, that 2018 will be a solid Democratic victory, if not a "wave" (where a wave starts or ends is difficult to say).

You said the same about 2016.

I mean, this is kind of an arguable thing, but 2016 was a narrow Democratic victory in popular sentiment. You had small Democratic gains in the Senate, House, and state legislatures, along with a narrow Democratic win in the presidential election (...'s popular vote). 2000 was also, more or less, a Democratic win in popular sentiment. Neither year will be remembered that way, but that was what the public mood was.

I did predict a larger Democratic win than that, so, uh, take my predictions with a grain of salt, I guess.
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« Reply #14 on: May 30, 2017, 02:29:00 pm »
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It seems clear, both going by the historical ways that midterms work and by the unique goings-on in this administration, that 2018 will be a solid Democratic victory, if not a "wave" (where a wave starts or ends is difficult to say).

You said the same about 2016.

Did you honestly predict that Trump would win?
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« Reply #15 on: May 30, 2017, 06:40:53 pm »
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It seems clear, both going by the historical ways that midterms work and by the unique goings-on in this administration, that 2018 will be a solid Democratic victory, if not a "wave" (where a wave starts or ends is difficult to say).

You said the same about 2016.

Did you honestly predict that Trump would win?

It's ironic, but he sort of did at one point. He said back during the primaries that Trump was more electable than most republican candidates, and that only a few like Kasich were more electable. He shifted his opinion of Trump dramatically after the Khan incident, and then started suggesting that Trump was the worst possible candidate.

One of his old posts:

Sure, if Trump doesn't change his style, he's not winning this election. That's exactly the reason why he will change it. He's already running as the most moderate Republican in this race. (Did you hear any other Republicans say they would refuse to take sides in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict or praise Planned Parenthood for helping women). Like it or not, Trump is more electable than Cruz or Rubio. And I say that as a Chafee/Kasich supporter lol. Do I find ironic Trump supporters annoying as heck? Yes. Do I want Trump to win the nomination? No, I think Kasich would have a better shot. But do I think the election will be anything other than a Tossup? No. Trump's favorables are abysmal, but it's not as if Clinton is viewed much more favorably than he is. And both their numbers will improve during the general election campaign, mark my words."He is a liar, a fraud, corrupt, severely lacking in any sort of decency or morals." Probably true. But you could use all those words to describe Clinton as well. That being said, I'd say Clinton would be favored to win the general if it was held today (maybe the Obama 2012 map minus FL/OH/IA or CO). No way she is going to beat him by more than 7 points, though. She also won't have any coattails in the Senate, because, well... coattails are mostly a myth. Republicans won't stay at home in a Clinton vs Trump race, and neither will Democrats.

Why does everyone assume that Trump has a path to victory in November?

Because they are either trolling or delusional.

I mean seriously, Romney got killed by Hispanics in 2012 and Trump is far more toxic then Mitt ever was when it comes to Hispanics.

I know people on here hate Hillary, but you can't win an election with the numbers he has when it comes to Hispanics.

Then why isn't she crushing him in the general election polls in Florida?



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Technocracy Timmy
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« Reply #16 on: May 30, 2017, 06:48:29 pm »
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^Interesting.

The best analysis I've heard that most adequately explains why Trump's support was unwavering in the primaries and general election (beyond the fact that much of the GOP base liked his comments, Hillary Clinton also having high unfavorables, etc.) is this short time stamped clip.
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« Reply #17 on: May 30, 2017, 07:18:58 pm »
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I think we screwed up our predictions because Trump ran such a bad campaign that we expected a loss, when the fundamentals favored a GOP victory. Trump averaged a narrow victory but the bad campaign contributed to the popular vote loss and he kept bleeding his GOP coalition all the way to the win, which confused a lot of people like me.
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