Predict the number of House seats Dems will pick up in 2018 (May 2017 edition)

[Orser67]

As of May 2017, how many House seats do you think that the Democrats will pick up (or lose) in the 2018 elections?

Edit: to be clear I'm talking about net pickups

[NewYorkExpress]

Somewhere between 25 and 30...but it's hard to see them gaining more that. Still, that's enough to make Pelosi speaker assuming no in-party defections.

[Horus]

Around 5.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Between 17-23 seats.

[AppleJackass]

3

[Orser67]

I voted 30-40, which is roughly in line with the average mid-term since 1990 in which the president's party controlled the House (so 2010, 2006, 2002, and 1994). I think Trump's unpopularity will really hurt Republicans, but gerrymandering/clustering and increased polarization will limit Republican losses.

Edit:

But I could also see ~60 seats (like in 2010) if things just keep getting worse for Trump and the Republican Congress, or ~10 seats if Trump settles into 40% approval ratings and Republicans retain control of their base. But imo the latter scenario would be an historical anomaly.

[ShadowRocket]

I voted 10-25, but I think 15-30 is the range that the final result will fall in.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Something like 18. Close to retaking the majority, but not quite enough.

[jamestroll]

42

[Hindsight was 2020]

30-35 I think people are downplaying that dems are getting strong recruits in swingablue rural areas

[Mr.Phips]

Unless Trump's approval rating somehow rises above 50%, I'd say in the high 20s.  The best a President's party has done when his approval rating was below 50% was to lose only 15 seats (1978).  It should be noted that 1978 was the last election other than 2002 where a President's party held the House in a midterm election.

[Brittain33]

30-40 based on the swing in recent special elections and having lived through '06, '08, '10, and '14.

[Brittain33]

5-15. Went with 9.

So, they'd end up around where they did in Obama's reelection in 2012.

[Sumner 1868]

They lose seats (defeatist).

[Maxwell]

10-25. Gun to my head? 15 seats.

[_]

10-25, 13 seats.

[The_Doctor]

I'll be consistent and say 4 seats since so far consistency has served me well. To be honest if Trumpy is still president I may have a different opinion?

[windjammer]

40 seats

[GeorgiaModerate]

I voted 30-40, which is roughly in line with the average mid-term since 1990 in which the president's party controlled the House (so 2010, 2006, 2002, and 1994). I think Trump's unpopularity will really hurt Republicans, but gerrymandering/clustering and increased polarization will limit Republican losses.

I agree with this (and voted 30-40), with the caveat that 18 months is an eternity in politics.

[Lachi]

Somewhere in the region of 30-35, seeing recent results, but it is still a year and a half untill the midterms, and anything could happen in that time. Who knows, by this time next year, we might be looking at a reverse 2010 for all we know, or the polls might have reversed, and the GOP might be gaining.

[The Other Castro]

26 seats.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

5-10 seats.  We will sustain losses, but comfortably keep our majority.

[Kingpoleon]

21-30, voted 10-25.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Magic number 24 or 25 seats needed to clinch House majority

[The_Doctor]

I'm uncertain but my guesses on GA and MT were mostly spot on. So far I think I'm sticking on the side of caution before projecting a major shift in the House Majority. Polarization is deeply embedded into voters' minds and I don't know the economic state of play. So far I'm sticking with minimal Democratic gains in Congress and much larger state gains.

I will say Trump remaining President on Election Day 2018 may actually hurt Republicans worse than a more stable Mike Pence.