Predict the number of House seats Dems will pick up in 2018 (May 2017 edition) (user search)
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  Predict the number of House seats Dems will pick up in 2018 (May 2017 edition) (search mode)
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Poll
Question: How many House seats do you think the Democrats will pick up in 2018?
#1
60+		  
#2
40-60		  
#3
30-40		  
#4
25-30		  
#5
10-25		  
#6
0-9		  
#7
Loss of 0-9		  
#8
Loss of >10		  
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results
Total Voters: 114

Author Topic: Predict the number of House seats Dems will pick up in 2018 (May 2017 edition)  (Read 7878 times)
Nyvin
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,665
United States


« on: May 28, 2017, 05:22:43 PM »
The Mathematics behind the election would say 30-40.    Who knows how accurate that will be.
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Nyvin
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,665
United States


« Reply #1 on: May 29, 2017, 05:48:45 PM »
Quote from: Beet on May 29, 2017, 05:19:22 PM
Given how few competitive House seats there are, 4 or 5 seats.

I'd love to hear an explanation for this...
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Nyvin
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,665
United States


« Reply #2 on: May 29, 2017, 06:13:22 PM »
Quote from: Beet on May 29, 2017, 06:00:43 PM
Quote from: AKCreative on May 29, 2017, 05:48:45 PM
Quote from: Beet on May 29, 2017, 05:19:22 PM
Given how few competitive House seats there are, 4 or 5 seats.

I'd love to hear an explanation for this...

Simple. The Democrats currently have an 8% lead in the generic ballot. Let's be conservative and cut that to 4%. The Republicans won the House popular vote by 1% in 2016. So if the Democrats won it by 4% in 2018, that's a 5% swing.

A list of House battlegrounds is found here:
https://ballotpedia.org/U.S._House_battlegrounds,_2016

The ones won by Republicans by less than 5% are CA-49, MN-02, NE-02, and TX-23. That's four. Not that I think those will be the four, but it's a general rough proxy for what can be expected.

lol,  that's....entertaining.

So explain to me how they won 6 seats while the Republicans won the popular vote by 1% last year.
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