Given how few competitive House seats there are, 4 or 5 seats.
I'd love to hear an explanation for this...
Simple. The Democrats currently have an 8% lead in the generic ballot. Let's be conservative and cut that to 4%. The Republicans won the House popular vote by 1% in 2016. So if the Democrats won it by 4% in 2018, that's a 5% swing.
A list of House battlegrounds is found here:
https://ballotpedia.org/U.S._House_battlegrounds,_2016
The ones won by Republicans by less than 5% are CA-49, MN-02, NE-02, and TX-23. That's four. Not that I think those will be the four, but it's a general rough proxy for what can be expected.
lol, that's....entertaining.
So explain to me how they won 6 seats while the Republicans won the popular vote by 1% last year.
Because there was actually a 5% swing in their favor from 2014, when the Republicans won the popular vote by 6%.
I just noticed on the NY Times website that CA-10 was also within 5%, so I up my prediction to 5-6 seats.
Its doubtful there'd be a uniform swing nationally though...
Poll
