Predict the number of House seats Dems will pick up in 2018 (May 2017 edition)

[Orser67]

As of May 2017, how many House seats do you think that the Democrats will pick up (or lose) in the 2018 elections?

Edit: to be clear I'm talking about net pickups

[Orser67]

I voted 30-40, which is roughly in line with the average mid-term since 1990 in which the president's party controlled the House (so 2010, 2006, 2002, and 1994). I think Trump's unpopularity will really hurt Republicans, but gerrymandering/clustering and increased polarization will limit Republican losses.

Edit:

But I could also see ~60 seats (like in 2010) if things just keep getting worse for Trump and the Republican Congress, or ~10 seats if Trump settles into 40% approval ratings and Republicans retain control of their base. But imo the latter scenario would be an historical anomaly.

[Orser67]

I will revise my prediction down to 20 for now. But I could see it as few as 6 seats or as much as 42. The large range is due to so much uncertainly in recruitment, polarization and how partisan people have become compared to 2006.

It is not even out of question it will be a President Pence.

This. I voted 10-25. I suspect that due to gerrymandering the Democrats will fall short.

BTW to the OP, can you make the voting choices just a tad closer together? "10-25"? That's a massive difference between "Democrats disappointed by limited gains, flip less than a dozen seats", and "Democrats re-take the House! What next for the Trump (or Pence) White House?". It doesn't even force one to answer the penultimate question of who'll be in charge come 2019.  (rant off).

Yeah I should have done like 10-18, 19-23, and 24-30.

Though I'm somewhat worried that people are starting with the notion that Democrats will (or won't) win a majority and then are working back from there, which isn't how Congressional elections work.