Predict the number of House seats Dems will pick up in 2018 (May 2017 edition) (user search)
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  Predict the number of House seats Dems will pick up in 2018 (May 2017 edition) (search mode)
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Poll
Question: How many House seats do you think the Democrats will pick up in 2018?
#1
60+
 
#2
40-60
 
#3
30-40
 
#4
25-30
 
#5
10-25
 
#6
0-9
 
#7
Loss of 0-9
 
#8
Loss of >10
 
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results

Total Voters: 114

Author Topic: Predict the number of House seats Dems will pick up in 2018 (May 2017 edition)  (Read 7897 times)
MATTROSE94
Junior Chimp
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« on: May 29, 2017, 11:40:30 AM »

I voted 30-40, which is roughly in line with the average mid-term since 1990 in which the president's party controlled the House (so 2010, 2006, 2002, and 1994). I think Trump's unpopularity will really hurt Republicans, but gerrymandering/clustering and increased polarization will limit Republican losses.

Edit:

But I could also see ~60 seats (like in 2010) if things just keep getting worse for Trump and the Republican Congress, or ~10 seats if Trump settles into 40% approval ratings and Republicans retain control of their base. But imo the latter scenario would be an historical anomaly.
I also agree that the Democrats have a 50-50  chance at regaining the House  in 2018 if they play their cards right. It is also possible that the Democrats will end up snatching defeat from the jaws of victory and end up losing the House barely as well. 
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