Predict the number of House seats Dems will pick up in 2018 (May 2017 edition)

[windjammer]

40 seats

[windjammer]

I will revise my prediction down to 20 for now. But I could see it as few as 6 seats or as much as 42. The large range is due to so much uncertainly in recruitment, polarization and how partisan people have become compared to 2006.

It is not even out of question it will be a President Pence.

This. I voted 10-25. I suspect that due to gerrymandering the Democrats will fall short.

BTW to the OP, can you make the voting choices just a tad closer together? "10-25"? That's a massive difference between "Democrats disappointed by limited gains, flip less than a dozen seats", and "Democrats re-take the House! What next for the Trump (or Pence) White House?". It doesn't even force one to answer the penultimate question of who'll be in charge come 2019.  (rant off).

To be honest, this GOP gerrymander never took into account a so big collapse in the suburbs, this gerrymander is much less effective than it was in 2010

[windjammer]

I mean,
When you have a Buffon as president polling in the high 30's or in the low 40's,
When you have a dem base so fired up that is going to turn by wider margins than the GOP base
When you have so many incompetent republican leaders who force republicans in dem leaning/swing districts to vote for massively unpopular legislations,


Well, I suggest it is a strong possibility it is going to be a democratic wave.