Early 2020 predictions?

[Beet]

Disregard who the candidates are. Here is my extremely early predicton:

302-236 R

[MATTROSE94]

Senator Cory Booker (D-NJ)/Governor John Bel Edwards (D-LA): 360 EVs (50%)
President Donald Trump (R-NY)/Vice President Michael Pence (R-IN): 172 EVs (44%)
Evan McMullin (I-UT)/Mindy Finn (I-TX): 6 EVs (4%)
Others: 0 EVs (2%)

The closest states are Texas, Louisiana, North Carolina, Georgia, Florida, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and Michigan.

[Beet]

Senator Cory Booker (D-NJ)/Governor John Bel Edwards (D-LA): 360 EVs (50%)
President Donald Trump (R-NY)/Vice President Michael Pence (R-IN): 172 EVs (44%)
Evan McMullin (I-UT)/Mindy Finn (I-TX): 6 EVs (4%)
Others: 0 EVs (2%)

The closest states are Texas, Louisiana, North Carolina, Georgia, Florida, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and Michigan.

Yikes. I told you to disregard who the candidates were.

[MATTROSE94]

Senator Cory Booker (D-NJ)/Governor John Bel Edwards (D-LA): 360 EVs (50%)
President Donald Trump (R-NY)/Vice President Michael Pence (R-IN): 172 EVs (44%)
Evan McMullin (I-UT)/Mindy Finn (I-TX): 6 EVs (4%)
Others: 0 EVs (2%)

The closest states are Texas, Louisiana, North Carolina, Georgia, Florida, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and Michigan.

Yikes. I told you to disregard who the candidates were.

I misread the first post. Sorry.

[Confused Democrat]

[TheSaint250]

Three ways I see this going (I won't name candidates):

[This account no longer in use.]

Assuming Trump v. generic D; Pence would likely do better.

[cvparty]

not specific to just this thread but i honestly don't understand everyone keeping wisconsin in the republican column especially while flipping other states like pennsylvania and arizona

[Technocracy Timmy]

Assuming it's a Pence victory:

283 Pence
209 Dem
46 Tossup

[heatcharger]

Trump vs. Generic D:

If I had to pick, Generic D wins WI, PA, and NH, while Trump wins NC, GA, AZ, NE-2, along with FL by a very slim margin. 278-260 D friewal win.

It's a long way to go, but I believe any semi-competent Democrat can flip Michigan and wrestle Wisconsin away without too much effort. Pennsylvania is an uphill climb, but it can be done with a good campaign. All of the tossup states, and mostly the Sun Belt ones depend on the candidate Democrats put up.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Booker/Kander v Trump/Pence
279 v 191

[Crumpets]

I'm going to make the safest guess based on where things currently stand - Trump is not impeached, and has around a 40% approval rating on election day. For now, I think Warren is the most likely candidate, although certainly nowhere near 50% probability. And if she were the nominee, I think it's safe to say she'd pick a young, male running mate. And although I don't think she's the best candidates the Democrats could pick, she'd probably still be favored over Trump if the political climate doesn't dramatically change between now and then (which, let's face it, it probably will one way or the other).

Warren/Castro 305 EV
Trump/Pence 233 EV

And here's a solid-likely-lean-tossup map:

Utah is only "likely" on the off-chance a third-partier runs again. It's still safe not-Democrat.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Really, WI going red again, and Baldwin will win double digit victories and Dems will ultimate take back the legislature of WI, isn't gonna happen two election cycles in a row.

[The_Doctor]

Beet, it's literally impossible to write a map without knowing the candidate. People like Kasich could run ahead of Trump, while Trump would lag far behind. We need a candidate and some sense of the economic and political climate, no?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Booker/Kander v Trump/Pence
279 v 191

I think Booker will be the nominee he is the antidote to Trump and will win.

[Orser67]

(more competitive states are in the lighter shade, less competitive in the darker shade)

Democrat 52
Trump 45
Libertarian 2
Others 1

Basically 2008, but swapping Indiana for Georgia and Arizona

[Technocracy Timmy]

I mean, it will OBVIOUSLY be this, because something something history and true demographic trends plus Democrats courting White working class voters plus the GOP being the party of affluent Whites:

MN is in the top ten states for median income and college attainment plus it's lily White. Yet it's Democrat in this scenario? Hogwash!

[Hoosier_Nick]

[Inmate Trump]

Dem: 421
Adolf: 117

[American2020]

The same with the right colors. It's more beautiful.

[Hoosier_Nick]

Dem: 421
Adolf: 117

Who would be the nominee to win SC over AK, MO, IN?

[MAINEiac4434]

Dem: 421
Adolf: 117

Who would be the nominee to win SC over AK, MO, IN?

Booker?

[Technocracy Timmy]

Who would be the nominee to win SC over AK, MO, IN?

Dude they're running against "Adolf", I'm surprised they didn't break 500. Partisanship is a hell of a drug.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This is the map barring a major shakeup in the Trump team.

[pbrower2a]

I see him losing, in view of his poor polling results so early. 

Trump barely loses (analogue Ford 1976)

unnamed Democrat 51%, Trump 48%

Bush 1992 analogue

Hoover 1932/Carter 1976 analogue