NM - Tarrance Group (R): Lujan-Grisham 47 - Pearce 43

[Gass3268]

Michelle Lujan-Grisham 47%
Steve Pearce 43%

Source

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I highly doubt these will be the nominees, but dems obviously have the advantage in this race.

[TheSaint250]

4 points is still kinda close, but still tilt/lean D

[ajc0918]

D+1

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Michelle Lujan-Grisham  50%
Steve Pearce 45%

My final estimate

[Skill and Chance]

Odd.  I am surprised that Lujan Grisham isn't leading by double digits in this national environment.

[TheSaint250]

Odd.  I am surprised that Lujan Grisham isn't leading by double digits in this national environment.

National events don't always translate to gubernatorial successes/losses.

[Holmes]

Odd.  I am surprised that Lujan Grisham isn't leading by double digits in this national environment.

Pearce is probably the best Republican to run in New Mexico, and it still isn't enough. Also Tarrance is Republican-leaning.

[Young Conservative]

Frankly, far closer than I would expect. This will be a close race.

[Skill and Chance]

NM might be trending back to the right for a few cycles?

[JerryArkansas]

Of course Atlas starts to pull the old freak out over one poll from a questionable outfit. 

[DrScholl]

Coming from a Republican pollster, that's not really a strong result for Pearce. New Mexico will be a Democratic gain.

[Maxwell]

Grisham is weak if she can't beat Pearce by at least 10.

[_]

Just one poll but if the polls continue to show a race within 4 i'll be surprised, I counted this race as Likely D because I thought only Martinez could pull of winning statewide.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

NM might be trending back to the right for a few cycles?

I'm pretty sure that it won't be as solidly Democratic as Colorado, to say the least (I am talking about statewide races here).

That being said, a Republican win here would be a big upset. Lean D, and that might even be generous to Republicans.

Dems aren't gonna blow these races even in NM, CO and MN and even IL. The generic ballot lead is about five points. And most dems are gonna win their races with close margins.  Like 50-45%, just like the GOP maintained a 5 point lead in 2014.

[henster]

They asked Dem legislative approvals but not the Gov. Martinez's...

[Meatball Ron]

I highly doubt these will be the nominees, but dems obviously have the advantage in this race.

Why not? I was under the impression that this one was pretty settled? I mean I guess the GOP could try to find someone better if they're worried about Pearce, but the bench isn't amazing, especially since Sanchez is out. On the Democratic side, I don't think Cervantes will be too much of a factor and I don't see who else would challenge Grisham (since Balderas and Keller are already out).

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Lean D. Not much of a surprise, thought I think today in an election it would be Grisham 51 Pearce 45 Lib 3 Green 1.