Could Dave Reichert finally be defeated in 2018?

[smoltchanov]

Is there any debate that this is exactly the type of seat Democrats need to seriously challenge if they want to win control of the House back?

No. That's obvious. The debate are mostly centered on probability of their victory.

[Badger]

Is there any debate that this is exactly the type of seat Democrats need to seriously challenge if they want to win control of the House back?

No. That's obvious. The debate are mostly centered on probability of their victory.

True. Seems to me that for the below reason Reichert would have serious trouble in a wave.

 

The problem with someone like Reichert in a Democratic wave is that many people who split tickets Clinton-Reichert in 2016 a) won't show up to vote in 2018 or b) will see voting against Reichert in 2018 as the only way they can voice their profound anger at Trump because he's not on the ballot. Combine that with some Republican straight-ticket voters staying home because Trump has disappointed them, and many Democratic straight-ticket voters fired up and ready to go, and you have the recipe for a defeat.

The most questionable part of the equation, for me, is whether Rs will stay home or show up anyway.

[RI]

Vote by mail states like WA seem to be more wave-proof than other states due to the really low cost of casting a vote.

[Sumner 1868]

The sort of Democrats who could best challenge Reichert generally prefer running for state legislative offices because it's a safer bet and less expensive. The state party has thinned greatly in the legislature since 2010 and will probably fixate its efforts there.