2017 UK election prediction?
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  2017 UK election prediction?
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Poll
Question: ?
#1
Conservative landslide
 
#2
Conservative victory
 
#3
Hung Parliament
 
#4
Labour upset
 
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results

Total Voters: 42

Author Topic: 2017 UK election prediction?  (Read 3790 times)
Sumner 1868
tara gilesbie
Junior Chimp
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« on: June 03, 2017, 03:38:43 PM »

You can vote until the 8th.
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Pericles
Atlas Icon
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« Reply #1 on: June 03, 2017, 05:03:43 PM »

My case for a pro-Tory polling error:
Polls typically overestimate Labour and underestimate the Tories-though as I have said it can be the other way around too. It's hard to imagine that so much has changed in just a few weeks that May will actually lose her majority. Given the performances of the Tories in the local elections, it looks like a Tory victory is likely and there is not much support for Corbyn. While Labour may have improved their position, they still are vulnerable on many key issues, especially leadership-where May has a clear advantage. The leadership issue in particular has been decisive in past elections. The polling surge for Labour could be real, but it seems like the media has just inflated it and tried to play up Corbyn's chances to liven up an otherwise boring election. The polls got 2015 and Brexit wrong, and its unclear if the pollsters have sufficiently cleaned up their act since then, even if they have UK polls are error-prone. I consider this the most likely outcome but also my least favorite one.
My prediction:
2017 UK election
Theresa May-Conservative: 385+55 48.3%
Jeremy Corbyn-Labour: 201-28 34.0%
Nicola Sturgeon-SNP: 43.11 3.9%
Tim Farron-LibDem: 2-7 7.0%
Caroline Lucas-Green: 1_ 1.9%
Paul Nuttal-UKIP: 0_ 3.3%
650 seats
326 for majority
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An American Tail: Fubart Goes West
Fubart Solman
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #2 on: June 03, 2017, 10:21:03 PM »

Nationwide Results

Con 330 seats 41.8%
Lab 242 seats 36.5%
LibDem 9 seats 7.6%
SNP 46 seats 4%
UKIP 0 seats 3.9%
Green 1 seat 2.5%
PC 3 seats 0.6%

NI 18 seats (duh) 2%

Other 1 seat 1.1% (Bercow)

Very narrow Tory majority (yes, I did say 330 on purpose)

I wouldn't mind seeing a hung parliament though.
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Lachi
lok1999
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« Reply #3 on: June 05, 2017, 04:03:07 AM »

Prediction, June 5th, 2017

CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY OF 22

Seat projections (GB):

CON: 335* (+5) (* not including speaker)
LAB: 237 (+8)
SNP: 46 (-10)
LIB: 10 (+2)
GRN: 1 (0)
PC: 3 (0)

Northern Ireland
DUP: 8 (0)
SF: 5 (+1)
SDLP: 3 (0)
Alliance: 1 (+1)
IND: 1 (0)
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
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« Reply #4 on: June 07, 2017, 09:01:10 PM »

Not sure why there are two threads on this, but I'll repost what I had on the other one.

Conservative: 45%, 375 seats
Labour: 34%, 200 seats
LibDem: 7%, 5 seats
SNP: 4%, 50 seats
UKIP: 4%, 0 seats
Others: 6%, 20 seats

Everyone marvels at the STUNNING MAY COMEBACK even though this is a perfectly plausible outcome in light of the polls.
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Lord Halifax
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« Reply #5 on: June 08, 2017, 05:41:12 AM »

Conservative victory, but not even close to a landslide. Its looks like turnout is fairly high, which will benefit Labour.
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YPestis25
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« Reply #6 on: June 08, 2017, 08:43:04 AM »

Conservatives-343 43%
Labor-227 36%
LibDems-7 Seats 8%
SNP-51 Seats 4%
UKIP-0 Seats 3%
Others-22 Seats and the remaining percentage
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GoTfan
GoTfan21
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #7 on: July 18, 2017, 09:27:16 PM »

Well these were quite wrong.
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Lachi
lok1999
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Australia


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« Reply #8 on: July 18, 2017, 10:22:43 PM »

Nationwide Results

Con 330 seats 41.8%
Lab 242 seats 36.5%
LibDem 9 seats 7.6%
SNP 46 seats 4%
UKIP 0 seats 3.9%
Green 1 seat 2.5%
PC 3 seats 0.6%

NI 18 seats (duh) 2%

Other 1 seat 1.1% (Bercow)

Very narrow Tory majority (yes, I did say 330 on purpose)

I wouldn't mind seeing a hung parliament though.
The closest prediction in this thread, just for closure.
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