GA-06 Predictions Thread (June 20)

[UncleSam]

Ossoff by .5, but he's no where near as big a favorite as the 70% in the poll suggests. MT-AL indicates to me that these red districts are just tough for the Democrats, polls or no.

[I’m not Stu]

Well, I thought it might be time for this.

Anyway, my prediction for now (will probably update it before election day):

51.5% Ossoff (D)
48.5% Handel (R)

Lean D.

It's really not looking good for Handel here.

I think Handel wins.

[jamestroll]

Ossoff by .5, but he's no where near as big a favorite as the 70% in the poll suggests. MT-AL indicates to me that these red districts are just tough for the Democrats, polls or no.

Quist was not a good candidate and the body slam news broke out too late in the campaign for it to skew results at all.

KS-04 was an impressive swing but a bridge to far for Democrats to overcome. But that race proves some points that Midwestern districts may be easier for Democrats, especially ones with high single digit R PVI's.

[I’m not Stu]

Ossoff by .5, but he's no where near as big a favorite as the 70% in the poll suggests. MT-AL indicates to me that these red districts are just tough for the Democrats, polls or no.

Quist was not a good candidate and the body slam news broke out too late in the campaign for it to skew results at all.

KS-04 was an impressive swing but a bridge to far for Democrats to overcome. But that race proves some points that Midwestern districts may be easier for Democrats, especially ones with high single digit R PVI's.

Early voting before the body slam also hurt Quist's chance.

[jamestroll]

Ossoff by .5, but he's no where near as big a favorite as the 70% in the poll suggests. MT-AL indicates to me that these red districts are just tough for the Democrats, polls or no.

Quist was not a good candidate and the body slam news broke out too late in the campaign for it to skew results at all.

KS-04 was an impressive swing but a bridge to far for Democrats to overcome. But that race proves some points that Midwestern districts may be easier for Democrats, especially ones with high single digit R PVI's.

Early voting before the body slam also hurt Quist's chance.

That is one of the reasons I am not a huge fan of early voting

On the hand hand imagine how badly Clinton could have lost if there was no early voting last year though..

[Cactus Jack]

A day out and I'm still sticking to 52-48 for Ossoff. Between her Shakespearean tragedy of a campaign and Ossoff's advantage in the early vote, I really don't see how Handel wins this.

[Free Bird]

Strange how the results in the poll are a lot more lopsided than the polarized answers in the actual thread

[Brittain33]

Strange how the results in the poll are a lot more lopsided than the polarized answers in the actual thread

I voted Ossoff a week ago and am now pre-grieving his loss.

[KingSweden]

RRH thinking this is Lean D is enough to make me Tilt Ossoff with serious reservations. Those guys are great but often super bullish on the GOP (Trump notwithstanding)

[Mr. Smith]

If polls suggest just a tie now when I suggested a .5% to Handel and they had Ossoff ahead, then methinks Handel by 51% now.

I hope I'm wrong.

[Xing]

I'll slightly modify my prediction. I think a lot of people are chicken littling, and I still think Ossoff is narrowly favored, though of course a Handel win is possible.

Ossoff - 50.7%
Handel - 49.3%

[The_Doctor]

Maintaining 53-47 Ossoff.

[heatcharger]

Handel 50.3%
Ossoff 49.7%

[Kamala]

Super bold : Ossoff will get a higher % than Norman.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Used to think Ossoff 52-48, now think Handel wins 51-49

[Suburbia]

Jon Ossoff (D) 52%
Karen Handel (R) 48%

[Virginiá]

Ossoff 51.2%
Handel 48.8%

[Suburbia]

If Handel loses, I don't see her ending her political career. She'll run for the Senate if Isakson retires or run for governor in 2018. I see her more as an executive than a legislator.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Not going to post numbers and I'm sick unto death of this race in general, but

I think a lot of people are chicken littling, and I still think Ossoff is narrowly favored, though of course a Handel win is possible.

[tallguy23]

Ossof around 50.5-51%

[100% pro-life no matter what]

This is a pure tossup.  Handel by less than a point- I'll say 50.3%-49.7%.

[morgieb]

This is tough. On the one hand, I don't have any faith in the American people making the right choice. On the other hand, the last time I hedged my bets was in the Louisiana race, and look what happened there.

I'll stick with an Ossoff 51/49 win or something like that, but Handel winning would be far from surprising.

[JGibson]

Ossoff (D) 50.2%
Handel (R) 49.8%

[Mr.Phips]

I can literally feel this race shifting by the hour.  Handel likely wins 51%-49%.  This race seems to have been shifting about a quarter point to Handel every six hours for the last day.  By tomorrow morning, she will be ahead.

[Tender Branson]

I will have to make a last minute change here because the shooting will deliver this election to Handel ...

My final prediction:

50.3% Handel (R)
49.7% Ossoff (D)