Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
August 21, 2019, 06:56:02 am
News: 2019 Gubernatorial Predictions are now active

  Atlas Forum
  General Politics
  International General Discussion (Moderators: Gustaf, afleitch, Hash, Eli Gorbinsky)
  Saudi Arabia General Discussion Thread: Purge Time with Finn and Jake
« previous next »
Pages: 1 [2] 3 4 5 6 7 Print
Author Topic: Saudi Arabia General Discussion Thread: Purge Time with Finn and Jake  (Read 13243 times)
coloniac
JosepBroz
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,332
Belgium


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #25 on: June 05, 2017, 12:54:39 pm »

Surely the massive US military presence in Qatar rules out annexation?
Logged
🅰 🦀 @k 🎂
CrabCake
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 16,430
Kiribati


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #26 on: June 05, 2017, 01:02:09 pm »

I wonder if Kuwait and Oman will be forced to take a side? Maybe the latter will get a get out clause becaue they always seem to think they're Switzerland or something, but Kuwait caused a lot of anger amongst the KSA with it's "why are we even fighting" shtick a few months or so back. (and apparantly from what has leaked Kuwait was often labeled just as much a prodigal son as Qatar).


fwiw the US will almost certainly back KSA over Qatar, troops or no troops.
Logged
coloniac
JosepBroz
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,332
Belgium


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #27 on: June 05, 2017, 01:13:16 pm »

Surely the massive US military presence in Qatar rules out annexation?


Naval Support Activity Bahrain is not a large base and deals mostly with small MCMs (minesweepers). The base just put out a statement saying nothing will change essentially status quo. The OIC is probably working with CENTCOM trying to figure out wth is going down, recall or not to recall, etc. I can tell you that if KSA decides to go all in, there is very little we could or would do.

I mean the airbase in Qatar.
Also US-Qatar relations were good, but I imagine this was brought up in Trump's KSA visit.
Logged
Eli Gorbinsky
Kalwejt
Moderator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 53,515


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #28 on: June 05, 2017, 01:14:14 pm »

If KSA, UAE, etc. block shipment, we could be looking at a naval engagement here.

Christ...
Logged
Stranger in a strange land
strangeland
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8,390
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #29 on: June 05, 2017, 02:24:43 pm »

Some fun facts:
+ 88% of the population of Qatar is non-citizen foreign workers
+ There are more Indians in Qatar than Qatari citizens
+ Qatar has a population of 2.6 million: no chance Iran could supply it with an airlift, especially considering the rather, er, extravagant standard of living that Qataris are [in]famous for.
Logged
Ghost of Ruin
Runeghost
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8,817


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #30 on: June 05, 2017, 02:43:10 pm »

Surely the massive US military presence in Qatar rules out annexation?


The potential annexation wouldn't be by Iran, it would be by Saudi Arabia / UAE. I find the possibility that Trump would go along with that to be frighteningly likely. (How friendly/hostile has Al Jazeera's coverage of Trump been?) Heck, the Saudis probably got Trump to sign off (verbally, at least) on this during his visit.
Logged
coloniac
JosepBroz
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,332
Belgium


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #31 on: June 05, 2017, 03:12:48 pm »
« Edited: June 05, 2017, 03:14:31 pm by Rogier »

Surely the massive US military presence in Qatar rules out annexation?


The potential annexation wouldn't be by Iran, it would be by Saudi Arabia / UAE. I find the possibility that Trump would go along with that to be frighteningly likely. (How friendly/hostile has Al Jazeera's coverage of Trump been?) Heck, the Saudis probably got Trump to sign off (verbally, at least) on this during his visit.

If anything KSA are profiting on the fact Trump has no idea what is going on in the ME right now and is relying on Tillerson when pretty much all the Near East policy adviser seats are empty.

But the fact the US still directly rely on Qatar for Afghan and Iraqi operations means I think at "worst" this is KSA trying to oust the current leadership through a coup rather than annexation and invasion, and at "best" its a response to Qatar violating some gentleman's agreement related to either Syria or the gas reserves with Iran, and that being the final straw for the Saudis after Qatari sponsoring of Arab Spring. KSA would not risk starting a hot war with Iran, it may have a bigger defense budget but it would not last a limited war with attrition and the internal strife.
Logged
○∙◄☻tπ[╪AV┼cV└
jfern
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 46,028


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #32 on: June 05, 2017, 04:22:19 pm »

I wonder if it could be related to this. Saudi Arabia could be trying to fool dumbs into thinking that they never fund terrorists and that everything is Qatar's fault. Of course they're both to blame.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jun/05/theresa-may-urged-not-to-suppress-report-into-funding-of-jihadi-groups
Logged
Gass3268
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19,509
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #33 on: June 05, 2017, 08:28:02 pm »

Panic buying in Qatar now as shoppers stockpile food
Logged
Lok
lok1999
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,287
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -1.06, S: -3.02

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #34 on: June 05, 2017, 09:13:40 pm »

I'm now wondering what will happen to the 2022 world cup. I hope they move it back to the rightful winner, Australia.
Logged
Iosif
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,609


Political Matrix
E: -1.68, S: -3.65

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #35 on: June 06, 2017, 12:41:06 am »

Can anyone explain what is going on here?


The Saudis hate Muslim Brotherhood and the Quataris were big sponsors of them when they were relevant.

There's also Iran, which KSA always gets annoyed that its smaller cousins aren't sufficiently angry about (for reference: Qatar has the weird Islamist fetish that is more utopian unify the ummah than Saudis; UAE only care about money and Oman is in a strange halfway house due to geography and the fact it's brand of religion is different from bath sides).

There's also economic bickering about natural gas etc

That is a terrific summary.
Logged
Gass3268
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19,509
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #36 on: June 06, 2017, 08:31:30 am »
« Edited: June 06, 2017, 08:53:41 am by Gass3268 »

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.
Logged
Ghost of Ruin
Runeghost
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8,817


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #37 on: June 06, 2017, 12:54:12 pm »
« Edited: June 06, 2017, 01:47:26 pm by Ghost of Ruin »

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

And Trump sets fire to another US alliance carefully built over years.

Guess Qatar is kicking themselves for not plastering Trump's face all over their nation and not giving him a giant glowing orb to hold. Maybe it's not too late for them to change their name to Trumpistan?
Logged
Eli Gorbinsky
Kalwejt
Moderator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 53,515


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #38 on: June 06, 2017, 01:50:19 pm »

Qataris didn't give Trump an orb to hold? Low energy.
Logged
Eli Gorbinsky
Kalwejt
Moderator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 53,515


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #39 on: June 06, 2017, 02:08:22 pm »


Naturally, it won't prevent wealthy Saudis to finance terrorists with the rulers turning a blind eye.

It almost looks like the U.S. along with stronger Arab nations simply picked a little country as a fall guy to show their anti-terrorist "credentials". Not that Qataris are innocent apples, but still.
Logged
Ghost of Ruin
Runeghost
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8,817


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #40 on: June 06, 2017, 03:10:11 pm »


Naturally, it won't prevent wealthy Saudis to finance terrorists with the rulers turning a blind eye.

It almost looks like the U.S. along with stronger Arab nations simply picked a little country as a fall guy to show their anti-terrorist "credentials". Not that Qataris are innocent apples, but still.

Yeah... It makes me think of a cartoon I can't find. There are a bunch of wolves in ill-fitting sheep costumes, in front of a mob of angry sheep, all pointing fingers at at one un-disguised wolf saying "he did it!"
Logged
Gass3268
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19,509
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #41 on: June 06, 2017, 03:23:30 pm »

Jordan has jumped in too

Pentagon: We can't square Trump's comments with our position on Qatar
Logged
Eli Gorbinsky
Kalwejt
Moderator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 53,515


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #42 on: June 06, 2017, 03:40:00 pm »


Atlas-style bandwagon effect.
Logged
DavidB.
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 12,001
Netherlands


Political Matrix
E: 0.06, S: 6.00

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #43 on: June 06, 2017, 04:43:43 pm »


Jordan and Mauritania are just emptyquoting now.
Logged
🅰 🦀 @k 🎂
CrabCake
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 16,430
Kiribati


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #44 on: June 06, 2017, 05:14:58 pm »

X post from aad:

At a guess, I assume this is how things went down:

1) trump's team both are stereotypically as anti Iranian as one would expect, but also contain more scepticism to the Gulf and its foreign influence than was previously expected from the GOP. This is a shift not limited to trump, with anti-Saudi, Emirati and Qatari narratives becoming fairly popular in even 'mainstream' 'establishment' circles.

2) Saudi does not want to lose its cover from the west, so when trump visited it basically blamed everything on Qatar. I.e. "oh we agree with your concerns on terrorism and we are dealing with it, but you know who isn't dealing with it? Qatar". This is not a completely unfair assessment - Qatari ideological influence on the islamic world is a lot more quasi-populist, revolutionary theology than Saudi promoted salafism which theologically is more rooted in ultra-conservatism" Trump would have been happy to hear this, especially as it neatly links in with his handlers' main concern of isolating Iran.

the global western establishment will be in two minds. One the one hand, they view Qatar as a pretty malignant influence, with a lot of delusions about its own significance and far more likely to disrupt 'useful' dictators and more open about funding jihadi proxies than Saudis are. On the other, this is a very risky move, which could cause the ultimate fear - a war between Iran and KSA, which at worst could cascade and bring in the entire Muslim world or even further, draw in Russia and USA to save their respective charges. (trumps relative detente with Russia would not last IMO)

I'm fairly interested on where Erdogan and Barzani will fall in such an escalation.
Logged
ApatheticAustrian
ApathicAustrian
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6,620
Austria


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #45 on: June 06, 2017, 05:16:19 pm »

ahaha ahaha ahahaha


wow


FIRST ON CNN: US suspects Russian hackers planted fake news behind Qatar crisis
http://edition.cnn.com/2017/06/06/politics/russian-hackers-planted-fake-news-qatar-crisis/index.html

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.
Logged
ApatheticAustrian
ApathicAustrian
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6,620
Austria


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #46 on: June 06, 2017, 09:59:58 pm »

According to AlJ (yayaya, i know, not the best source right now), Saudi-Arabia demanded 10 points from Doha in the next 24 hours....otherwise there would be a form of punishment.

https://twitter.com/faisaledroos/status/872251817110806528

Part of the 10 points:

Ousting Hamas......no more funding for terrorist groups.....breaking up relationships with Iran......killing Al Jazeera (lol).....not meddling anymore in egyptian affairs.


This is not even rough diplomacy, this is sheer imperialism. arguably sparked by russian provocateurs.

Logged
○∙◄☻tπ[╪AV┼cV└
jfern
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 46,028


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #47 on: June 06, 2017, 10:29:41 pm »

Ousting Hamas......no more funding for terrorist groups.....breaking up relationships with Iran......killing Al Jazeera (lol).....not meddling anymore in egyptian affairs.


Obviously they mean no more funding for terrorist groups that Saudi Arabia doesn't like. Lets not kid ourselves about Saudi Arabia.
Logged
True Federalist
Ernest
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 37,000
United States


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #48 on: June 07, 2017, 01:00:29 am »

According to AlJ (yayaya, i know, not the best source right now), Saudi-Arabia demanded 10 points from Doha in the next 24 hours....otherwise there would be a form of punishment.

10 points.  That seems familiar.  And it didn't even tale killing a Saudi royal to do it.
Logged
Lord Halifax
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 618
Papua New Guinea


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #49 on: June 07, 2017, 02:34:44 am »

X post from aad:

At a guess, I assume this is how things went down:

1) trump's team both are stereotypically as anti Iranian as one would expect, but also contain more scepticism to the Gulf and its foreign influence than was previously expected from the GOP. This is a shift not limited to trump, with anti-Saudi, Emirati and Qatari narratives becoming fairly popular in even 'mainstream' 'establishment' circles.

2) Saudi does not want to lose its cover from the west, so when trump visited it basically blamed everything on Qatar. I.e. "oh we agree with your concerns on terrorism and we are dealing with it, but you know who isn't dealing with it? Qatar". This is not a completely unfair assessment - Qatari ideological influence on the islamic world is a lot more quasi-populist, revolutionary theology than Saudi promoted salafism which theologically is more rooted in ultra-conservatism" Trump would have been happy to hear this, especially as it neatly links in with his handlers' main concern of isolating Iran.

the global western establishment will be in two minds. One the one hand, they view Qatar as a pretty malignant influence, with a lot of delusions about its own significance and far more likely to disrupt 'useful' dictators and more open about funding jihadi proxies than Saudis are. On the other, this is a very risky move, which could cause the ultimate fear - a war between Iran and KSA, which at worst could cascade and bring in the entire Muslim world or even further, draw in Russia and USA to save their respective charges. (trumps relative detente with Russia would not last IMO)

I'm fairly interested on where Erdogan and Barzani will fall in such an escalation.

Within the Greater Middle East - not Indonesia, Malaysia, Bangladesh, Central Asia, Black Muslim Africa etc. Maybe Pakistan, but even that is doubtful.
Logged
Pages: 1 [2] 3 4 5 6 7 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

© Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC