Saudi Arabia General Discussion Thread: Purge Time with Finn and Jake

[Zinneke]

My rule of thumb is that the goodless bad guys tend to be the side which Saudi Arabia isn't on.

Pure reductionist drivel.
In Syria, for example, Qatar funds al-Nusra, while SA funds a smaller islamist group that essentially acts as a proxy for their national interests.

[Zinneke]

My rule of thumb is that the goodless bad guys tend to be the side which Saudi Arabia isn't on.

Pure reductionist drivel.
In Syria, for example, Qatar funds al-Nusra, while SA funds a smaller islamist group that essentially acts as a proxy for their national interests.

Saudi Arabia is essentially conducting a proxy war with Iran.

Yep, their national interest include countering Iran and Shia islam in the region via islamist proxies. That much is clear.
 
But while Qatar's interests are far more complex, they still fund just as dangerous groups.

[Zinneke]

Iran already put out a statement saying it could deliver food aid within 12 hrs. I'm more concerned about this turning into an annexation a la '91 or a Cuban Missile quarantine crisis which is tantamount to a war. This could turn really hot very quickly. Bahrain is close by so the base might go on lockdown. Had some ppl I served with PCS there. Trump giving them the $100 bil promise really has up'd Saudi's ante.

There's no hot war, there's a US airbase there.
I doubt Qatar will want to rely on Iran, unless they've struck a deal on a joint gas pipeline. Far more likely allies are the Turks.

[Zinneke]

Surely the massive US military presence in Qatar rules out annexation?

[Zinneke]

Surely the massive US military presence in Qatar rules out annexation?

Naval Support Activity Bahrain is not a large base and deals mostly with small MCMs (minesweepers). The base just put out a statement saying nothing will change essentially status quo. The OIC is probably working with CENTCOM trying to figure out wth is going down, recall or not to recall, etc. I can tell you that if KSA decides to go all in, there is very little we could or would do.

I mean the airbase in Qatar.
Also US-Qatar relations were good, but I imagine this was brought up in Trump's KSA visit.

[Zinneke]

Surely the massive US military presence in Qatar rules out annexation?

The potential annexation wouldn't be by Iran, it would be by Saudi Arabia / UAE. I find the possibility that Trump would go along with that to be frighteningly likely. (How friendly/hostile has Al Jazeera's coverage of Trump been?) Heck, the Saudis probably got Trump to sign off (verbally, at least) on this during his visit.

If anything KSA are profiting on the fact Trump has no idea what is going on in the ME right now and is relying on Tillerson when pretty much all the Near East policy adviser seats are empty.

But the fact the US still directly rely on Qatar for Afghan and Iraqi operations means I think at "worst" this is KSA trying to oust the current leadership through a coup rather than annexation and invasion, and at "best" its a response to Qatar violating some gentleman's agreement related to either Syria or the gas reserves with Iran, and that being the final straw for the Saudis after Qatari sponsoring of Arab Spring. KSA would not risk starting a hot war with Iran, it may have a bigger defense budget but it would not last a limited war with attrition and the internal strife.