Argentina Legislative Election 2017

[RodPresident]

Buenos Aires City:
•Vamos Juntos
  Elisa "Lilita" Carrió (CC-ARI), Carmen Polledo (Pro), Fernando Iglesias (CC), Juan Manuel López (CC), Paula Oliveto (CC), Alejandro García (Pro), Facundo Suárez Lastra (UCR), Joanna Picetti (Pro), Jorge Enríquez (Pro), Patricia Holzman (Pro), Agustín Giustinian (Pro).
•Evolución
  Martin Lousteau, Carla Carrizo (UCR), Álvaro de Lamadrid (UCR), Mariano Genovesi (UCR)
•Unidad Porteña
   -Unidad Ciudadana, Daniel Filmus (FPV)Gabriela Cerruti (Nuevo Encuentro), Juan Cabandié (FPV/La Cámpora), Carlos Heller (Partido Solidario), Gisela Marziotta, Gustavo López (Forja), Gabriela Alegre (FPV), Lucrecia Cardozo, Augusto Costa, Francisco Cafiero (PJ), Juliana Sette, Daniel Gollán, Juan Pablo O'Dezaille
   -Ahora Buenos Aires, Itai Hagman(Patria Grande), Elizabeth Gómez Alcorta (PG)
   -Honestidad y Coraje, Guillermo Moreno (La Néstor Kirchner), María Lucila "Pimpi" Colombo (LNK), Adrián Andreatta, Rubén Zampini.
•Avancemos hacia un País Mejor
  Matías Tombolini, Florencia Arietto (FR), Raquel Vivanco (Libres del Sur)
•Frente de Izquierda
   Marcelo Ramal(PO), Laura Marrone (Izquierda Socialista), Patricio del Corro (PTS)
•Autodeterminación y Libertad
   Luis Zamora
•Izquierda al Frente
    Alejandro Bodart (MST), Marina Robles (Nuevo MAS), César Latorre (MST)
•Convocatoria Abierta por Buenos Aires,
   Claudio Lozano (Unidad Popular), María Elena Barbagelata (Partido Socialista)
•Sur en Marcha
   Enrique Viale,  Damián Solanas
•Partido Humanista   
   Pablo Baqué, Mariana Lettis, Marcelo Neira, Alejandra Paiz

Who are favourites in the City?Who's better positioned in far-left, Zamora, Frente de Izquierda or Sur en Marcha?

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

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Cambiemos Vamos Juntos is by far the favorite in the City
FIT and then Zamora are better positioned (but I don't think either will get the 6-7% necessary to get a deputy, but they'll have a good chance of getting one of the 30 members of the city legislature each), with MST-MAS far behind (they didn't get the 1.5% necessary to go beyond the PASO last time)
Sur isn't that far to the left, and they haven't been even remotely relevant since 2013

[Velasco]

Then you've got, as you say the whole caudillo archetype which, as I understand it, goes back even before Columbus to the Spanish conquest of Andalusia and the Canary Islands. Culture influences political structures which in turn influence culture.

Caudillo is a Spanish word that refers to a leader -whether military, political or ideological- that commands a group of people. It's a person that exercises leadership providing guidance to an organisation, a community or an entire nation. The word is commonly used for XIX and XX Century leaders, Caudillismo in Latin America is a fascinating phenomenon with an interesting history. I am curious to know what do you understand as the caudillo archetype and its origins you date in the conquest if Andalusia and the Canaries, although I'm afraid this subject could be off-topic.

Well to start with what were Cortes and Pizarro and other conquistador leaders if not Caudillos? It is often said that the concept of 'caudillo' comes from the reconquista, of a warlord leading a band to grab territory from the Moors in El Andalus or indeed later the Canaries for them and for the Crown of Castile. The conquest of the Spanish Indies was seen as a continuation of the same process, warlords and their bands grabbing land from the heathens for their own benefit but also for the Crown of Castile and the Catholic Church. The Spanish Indies were classified as being part of the Crown of Castile just like the reconquered in El Andalus and Canaries rather than being legally 'colonies' as the British territories in North America were.

That's just what I've read anyway, the Reconquista is not an area of expertise for me, others will know more.

It does seem to me clear however that when the archetype of the Caudillo re-emerged in the XIXth century hispanic America it was an archetype drawing very much from the Spanish side of the American heritage. (but as you say this is a bit off topic)

Well, Cortés and Pizarro belonged to the ranks of the lesser nobility. They were hidalgos, members of a military caste which was unused once the Reconquista was completed with the conquest of Granada. Such event occurred in 1492, the very same year Columbus 'discovered' the 'Western Indies'. It's logical that some of the most unsettled and adventurous among the ranks of the hidalgos tried to search their fortunes in America. As military leaders they can be considered caudillos, like a famous XI century Castilian warlord called El Cid. I guess that Jean de Béthencourt (a baron from Normandy) or Pedro de Vera, whom conquered the Canaries alongside with other warlords, can be considered caudillos too. Then we have the wars of independence and the phenomenon of caudillismo in the new republics (XIX century), the peronist caudillos (my favourites ) and... Franco (Caudillo de España por la Gracia de Dios). I guess that the figure of the warlord is not exclusive of Spain and Latin America, even though the Hispanic caudillos may have some particular characteristics... moreover the term is used to define not only military but political leaders too. It's fascinating, but it'd be off-topic unless we establish a connection with San Martín, Juan Domingo Perón and his disciples


More on topic, Minister of Education Esteban Bullrich runs for the Senate in Buenos Aires province.  Back in March, the man went to the Netherlands with Macri and others in the president's entourage. In the house of Anna Frank, he uttered a sentence which provoked reactions ranging between astonishment and indignation. Bullrich said that Anna Frank is "a very important symbol, especially working in eduction"- "She had dreams, knew what she wanted and those dreams were frustrated, mostly by a leadership which was not able to unite and bring peace to a world that promoted intolerance".

No words can explain...

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

That's nothing, you have to listen to a full speech by Macri

[Velasco]

According to La Nación, the Mauricio Macri administration is preparing far-reaching reforms to implement after the elections. In order such reforms will be enacted, the main condition is defeating Cristina Fernández in the Buenos Aires province elections. As said before, La Presidenta is running for the Senate. The ruling coalition Cambiemos placed Esteban Bullrich against her.. Macri assured in 2016 that Bullrich would not be candidate because he is "one of the best education ministers" Argentina ever had and is making a "historical reform".

Macri administration wants to promote a fiscal reform, as well a political reform that includes changes in campaign funding; also changes in the public ethics law, regulatory agencies and the judiciary. These are some of the "long term modifications" that the Casa Rosada would want to implement once the "electoral hurdle" is passed. One of the main presidential obsessions is to create employment to reduce poverty. The view of Macri and the entrepreneurship is that goes hand in hand with a reduction of the "Argentinian cost". Accordingly ministers Nicolás Dujovny (Treasury) and Jorge Triaca (Labour) would be working in a broad fiscal reform that suppresses taxes and contributions, promotes legal contracts and combats work in the black economy. The support of the Justicialist Party (Peronist) is key to implement such reforms, especially the support of the provincial governors considered "friendly" by La Casa Rosada. Among the measures on political reform the government would like to see enacted feature the abolition of the PASO (primary elections) and the introduction of electronic vote.

http://www.lanacion.com.ar/2038961-el-gobierno-prepara-profundas-reformas-para-despues-de-las-elecciones

In other news, yesterday it was the 43 anniversary of the death of Juan Domingo Perón. Former president Carlos Menem, who is running for Senate in La Rioja province, released a video in his Facebook campaign account where he remembers h¡s engagement to politics was motivated by a radio speech made by Perón. The man is apparently touched and on the verge of tears. His supporters hail: "¡Grande, Carlos!". Pure Menem style!

http://www.lanacion.com.ar/2038826-el-llanto-de-carlos-menem-al-recordar-a-juan-domingo-peron-que-se-convirtio-en-un-spot-para-su-campana

That's nothing, you have to listen to a full speech by Macri

Do you think it's necessary?

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

Another poll
Buenos Aires Province
M&R Asociados-Query Argentina
25-28 June




(I know that the definition is crap, but that's not my fault)

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

Buenos Aires Province
Management & Fit
(last week, but I couldn't find the exact date, it was released on July 1)

Senate:


Deputies:

[FredLindq]

Why is the elections in the Buenos Aires province so close in the senate election but not in the diputados elections? Is Christina so popular??

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

Why is the elections in the Buenos Aires province so close in the senate election but not in the diputados elections? Is Christina so popular??

It's mainly that Vallejos is not well known, she has no name recognition

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

Buenos Aires City
Analogías, for the PJ (Unidad Porteña)

Voting intention by first candidate
1) ELISA CARRIÓ (Vamos Juntos),4%

2) DANIEL FILMUS (in Unidad Porteña) 16,1%

3) MARTÍN LOUSTEAU (Evolución)12,3%

4) LUIS ZAMORA (AyL)3,8%

5) MATÍAS TOMBOLINI (1Pais) 3,4%

6) GUILLERMO MORENO (in Unidad Porteña) 2,6%

7) ITAÍ HAGMAN  (in Unidad Porteña) 1,6%

MARCELO RAMAL (Frente de Izquierda) 0,9%

Voting intention by Coalition

1) VAMOS JUNTOS 43,4%

2) UNIDAD PORTEÑA 20,6%

3) EVOLUCIÓN CIUDADANA 9,4%

4) 1PAÍS 6%

5) AyL 3,5%

6) FRENTE DE IZQUIERDA (PTS y PO) 2,5%

7) IZQUIERDA AL FRENTE (MST y Nuevo MAS) 0,7%

OTRO 2,1%

NO SABE 11,9%

[FredLindq]

Opinion poll for Cordoba by MyF. Gives UPC (UNA) 29.9%, Juntos por Cordoba (Cambienos) 29.0%, Frente Cordoba Cidudans (FPV) 3.9%.

In 2015 Cambienos got 49.8%, UPC 21.1 % and FPV 18.1%

[FredLindq]

Two new polls for the senate election i Buenos Aires (region)
Axonier
28 June-2 July
1605 interviews
Buenos Aires Province, Senate race
Cristina Kirchner - Jorge Taiana (Unidad Ciudadana) 34,8%
Esteban Bullrich-Gladys González (Cambiemos) 33,2%
Sergio Massa-Margarita Stolbizer (1Pais) 17,7%
Florencio Randazzo-Florencia Casamiquela(Frente Justicialista) 4,6%
Néstor Pitrola - Andrea Datri (FIT) 2,2%

Synopis
1-2 July
1057 interviews
Buenos Aires Province, Senate race
Cristina Kirchner - Jorge Taiana (Unidad Ciudadana) 32,5%
Esteban Bullrich-Gladys González (Cambiemos) 30,1%
Sergio Massa-Margarita Stolbizer (1Pais) 18,0%
Florencio Randazzo-Florencia Casamiquela(Frente Justicialista) 5,6%
Néstor Pitrola - Andrea Datri (FIT) 4,2%

It seems like it will be a very close election between Kirchner and her Unidad Ciudana and Bullrich and Cambiemos. Either Unidad Ciudana gets tow seats and Cambiemos ine or vice versa.

Sergio Massa and his 1Pais seems to be to far away from the main contesters.

[FredLindq]

But for the dpiutados race in Buenos airAs (province) Cambiemos seems to be cruising to victory.

Mangement and Fit
July
Buenos Aires Province, Diputados race
Ocana (Cambiemos) 38,0%
Vallejos (Unidad Ciudadana) 28,3%
Sola (1Pais) 10,4%
Del Cano (FIT) 5,3%
Bucca (Frente Justicialista) 4,0%

[FredLindq]

Also in Buenos Aires City diputados race Vamos Juntos (Cambiemos without UCR) is cruising to victory.You should consider that Evolución is mainly UCR and should be considered part of Cambiemos in the parliament.

Buenos Aires City, diputados race
Mangement and Fit
26 June-3 July
750 interviews
Vamos Juntos Carrió 37,9%
Unidad Porteña Filmus 16,8%
Evolución Lousteau 14,6%
Autodeterminación y Libertad Zamora 6,6%
Avancemos hacia un País Mejor Tombolini 6,5%
Izquierda al Frente Bodart 2,4%
Frente de Izquierda Ramal 2,3%

[Velasco]

Elections in Chaco:

An election to renew 16 seats of the Chaco provincial legislature was held yesterday. The peronist Frente Chaco Merece Más ("Chaco Deserves More Front"), which governs the province, won the election with a 12% margin over Cambiemos ("Let's Change"). Trotskysts won a seat, apparently for the first time.

Frente Chaco Merece Más (Justicialist) 46.23%, winning 9 seats
Cambiemos 34.1%, winning 6 seats
Workers' Party (Trotskyst) 5.72%, winning 1 seat

Turnout 56.5%

Incumbent governor is Domingo Peppo, who replaced former cabinet chief (with president Cristina Fernández) and currently mayor of Resistencia (the provincial capital) Jorge Capitanich.

[FredLindq]

This was a setback for the Justicialist front then or?

Since:
Chaco
Candidatos a Diputados Nacionales
25 de octubre de 2015

Electores Hábiles   864.891      
% de Votantes   77,28      
Partidos / Alianzas Electorales
ALIANZA FRENTE PARA LA VICTORIAa   343.023   53,75   2
ALIANZA CAMBIEMOSb   179.386   28,11   1
ALIANZA UNIDOS POR UNA NUEVA ALTERNATIVAc   92.247   14,46   
DEL OBRERO   12.778   2,00   
ALIANZA PROGRESISTASd   7.845   1,23   
PARTIDO CIUDADANOS A GOBERNAR   2.864   0,45

[Velasco]

This was a setback for the Justicialist front then or?

Since:
Chaco
Candidatos a Diputados Nacionales
25 de octubre de 2015

Electores Hábiles   864.891      
% de Votantes   77,28      
Partidos / Alianzas Electorales
ALIANZA FRENTE PARA LA VICTORIAa   343.023   53,75   2
ALIANZA CAMBIEMOSb   179.386   28,11   1
ALIANZA UNIDOS POR UNA NUEVA ALTERNATIVAc   92.247   14,46   
DEL OBRERO   12.778   2,00   
ALIANZA PROGRESISTASd   7.845   1,23   
PARTIDO CIUDADANOS A GOBERNAR   2.864   0,45

Not necessarily, since yesterday's was a provincial and not a national election. With regard to the previous election to the provincial legislature, the Justicialist Front lost one seat which went to Cambiemos. The seat won by the Workers' Party (Partido Obrero, PO) was previously held by a former member of the governing alliance who later became independent, apparently. It was just a minor provincial election.

[FredLindq]

Regarding the two groups in parliament The Justicialista and
The Peronismo para la Victoria. What differs them from FPV and from Massa's peronists?!

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

The Electoral Justice has barred former president Menem from running as senator, due to his sentence for  arms trafficking, he still has an opportunity to appeal, on both the arms trafficking charges and the electoral issue, behind the supreme Court

His supporters (including the current governor of La Rioja) are claiming that this a Conspiracy from wealthy judges from Buenos Aires and their pro-unitarian anti-peronist allies

[FredLindq]

My projection for the senate elections
PJ-FPV/UC
8 (Includes 2 FUJ from San Luis could be seen as federal peronists Saa Compromiso Federal )
Wins in Buenos Aires, Formosa and San Luis
Second in Juyjuy and Santa Cruz
A loss of 6
 
FPV-allies
CS (FRC) 2
Wins Missiones
No change

Federal Peronism
2 FT (San Juan)
Wins San Luis
No change

1 FJ (LyD, Menem La Rioja),
second in La Rioja
No change

Cambiemos 11
UCR 7,
wins Juyjuy, La Rioja and Santa Cruz
Second in Formosa
Gains 4

PRO 2,
Sgainsecpnd in Buenos Aires and Missiones
Gains  2

PyT (Compromiso San Juan, Ex. PJ) 1,
Second in San Juan
no change

Avanzar (Ex. Compromiso Federal San Luis, Ex. PJ),
Second in San Luis
Gains 1

UNA (Massas federal peronists) 0, no change

Progresistas 0, a loss off 1

Left, FTI-TS, 0 no change

In total
FPV and allies 34
PJ-FPV/UC 29
CS (FRC) FPV-allied 2
FC FPV-allied 2
FP (In reality FC) 1

Cambiemos 25
UCR 12
FCyS, in reality UCR 1
PRO 8
FP-CC-ARI 1
Avanazar (could beens seen as federal peronists) 1
PyT (could be seen as federal peronits)  1
Santa Fe Federal (could beens seen as federal peronists) 1

UNA (Massas federal peronists) 4
MPN 2
UPC 1
CST 1

Federal Peronists 6
Compromiso Federal 2
PJ La Pampa 2
Just 8 October 1
LyD 1

Progresistas 0

Left 0

Others 3
MPF 1
Proyecto Sur 1
Pares, Ex. FPV 1

[FredLindq]

My projection for the diputados elections
PJ-FPV/UC 29
Including 3 AFJ in Sant Fe were i think the Kirchenistas win the primary and 2 from San Juan that could be seen as federal peronists
A loss of 1
 
FPV-allies 5
CS (FRC) 2
No change

FCyS 3
No change

Federal Peronism 16
From Corrientes, Entre Rios, Juyjuy, La Pampa, La Rioja, Mendoza, Tucuman, Salta, and San Luis.

Cambiemos 53
A gain off 14


UNA (Massas federal peronists) 17
A loss off 4

Progresistas 1
Socialist 1
A loss off 6

Left 6
FTI-TS 5
A gain off 1

Others
JSRV (Rio Negro) 1
A gain off 1

[FredLindq]

According to how La Nacions has divided the peronists in Kirchenistas and PJ my predction is:
Kirchenistas 25
Buenos Aires FC, Catamarca and Nequen FUC, Chubut, Rio Negro, and Santa Cruz FPV, Formosa AFPV, Salta FCpV, San Luis FUJ, Santa Fe FJ, Tirrea del Fuego FCyS

PJ non Kirchenistas 20
City of Buenos Aires UP, Catamarca FJPV , Chaco CMM, Corrientes JPM, Entre Rios SER, Juyjuj and Tucuman FJ, La Pama PJ-LP, La Rioja FJR, Mendoza FSM, Salta FUyR, San Juan FT

[sb95]

According to Cambiemos (government) they won Entre Rios, Santa Cruz, Mendoza, Buenos Aires City, and Jujuy and they are optimist of their result in Buenos Aires Province. This are all opinions based on exit polls, but no real results until 9:00 pm (in two hours).

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

My very unrepresentative polling station's results for deputies

Vamos Juntos (Cambiemos): 84.7%
Unidad Porteña (FPV): 4.9%
Evolución (UCR+PS): 4.5
Frente de Izquierda:1.9%
CAxBA: 1.1%
1Pais: 0.6%
Partido Acción Ciudadana: 0.4%
Partido Socialista Auténtico: 0.4%
Autodeterminacion y Libertad: 0.4%
Everyone else: 0%
Blank votes: 0.4%

[sb95]

I can't post the link, but it's this: resultados.gob.ar/escrutinio/dat01/DDN01999A.htm
For Buenos Aires City -Deputies-: (47,70% of all votes)
Carrio (Cambiemos) - 48,32%
Filmus (UP) - 21,42%
Lousteau (ECO) - 13,27%
Tombolini (1Pais) - 4,09%
Ramal (FIT) - 3,86%
Others - 8,01%