UK General Election, 2017 - Election Day and Results Thread

[mvd10]

Haven't read much about the causes of the SNP collapse. It seems to me that they have been so successful at being perceived as a left-wing party and attracting Labour voters that they have left a lot of space on the right and alienated right-wing voters... but then why didn't these Scottish right-wingers vote for the Tories in 2015 already? What made them move to the Tories this time?

Cameron being more associated with austerity than May maybe? May vocally buried Thatcherism during the campaign and if I'm right the Tory downfall in Scotland started with Thatcher. Maybe it saved her after all .

You guys are really overestimating how much of an impact May's rhetorical movement to the left on economics had. Just saying...

You're probably right. May burying the legacy of my favorite world leader ever just really pissed me off while actual Britons probably didn't really ncare about it.

[DavidB.]

Haven't read much about the causes of the SNP collapse. It seems to me that they have been so successful at being perceived as a left-wing party and attracting Labour voters that they have left a lot of space on the right and alienated right-wing voters... but then why didn't these Scottish right-wingers vote for the Tories in 2015 already? What made them move to the Tories this time?

Cameron being more associated with austerity than May maybe? May vocally buried Thatcherism during the campaign and if I'm right the Tory downfall in Scotland started with Thatcher. Maybe it saved her after all .

You guys are really overestimating how much of an impact May's rhetorical movement to the left on economics had. Just saying...

I'm not? I'm arguing that it was merely rhetorical and not real all the time. And in my above post I'm talking about the SNP attracting Labour voters, not about the Tories.

[DavidB.]

Pretty sure the exit poll had Con at 314?

[parochial boy]

Haven't read much about the causes of the SNP collapse. It seems to me that they have been so successful at being perceived as a left-wing party and attracting Labour voters that they have left a lot of space on the right and alienated right-wing voters... but then why didn't these Scottish right-wingers vote for the Tories in 2015 already? What made them move to the Tories this time?

Cameron being more associated with austerity than May maybe? May vocally buried Thatcherism during the campaign and if I'm right the Tory downfall in Scotland started with Thatcher. Maybe it saved her after all .

You guys are really overestimating how much of an impact May's rhetorical movement to the left on economics had. Just saying...

I'm not? I'm arguing that it was merely rhetorical and not real all the time. And in my above post I'm talking about the SNP attracting Labour voters, not about the Tories.

Ah, I agree with you in that case, just noticed that you were having a similar debate about Kensington (which I think you're right about too)  and thought it was funny that the Tories allegedly moving left was coming up so often when it was barely even remarked upon in the latter stages of the campaign

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Final Count:

Conservative+DUP 328
Labour 262
SNP 35
LD 12
SF 7
Plaid Cymru 4
GRN 1
IND 1

[rob in cal]

   I wonder what accounts for Labour's strong performance in London?  Better young voter turnout, more and more non-white British entering the electorate and turning out to vote, former Tories upset about Brexit, a mixture of all three perhaps?

[IceAgeComing]

Brexit is the big thing in inner London - my experience is that young people in that part of the world were especially affronted by the whole thing, and its probably the place where that by itself would have been enough to spike youth turnout.  There's also the fact that the Tories campaign was very culture war like and nationalistic and that was never likely to play well in London; while Corbyn's manifesto would.  I think that the sky-high cost of living in London also makes that sort of politics a lot more attractive to a lot more people than in other places - rent is so high there, and ownership of a flat or a house is impossible for the majority of people who live there without decades of saving for the deposit for example.

[Polkergeist]

This is CNNs breakdown (I don't know if everybody would agree with how they broke down England into regions)

.......

Based on these regional figures here are the Con-Lab swings

South West: 3.3% swing to Labour

South East: 3.7% swing to Labour

London: 6.3% swing to Labour

Eastern: 2.6% swing to Labour

East Midlands: 0.8% swing to Labour

West Midlands: 1.2% swing to Labour

North West: 2.7% swing to Labour

Yorkshire & H: 1% swing to Labour

North East: 0.4% swing to Conservative

Wales: 2.9% swing to Labour

Scotland: 5.5% swing to Conservative*

*Scotland (CON -SNP swing)  13.4% swing to Conservative

[IceAgeComing]

There are big variations within that though - the big cities have swung to Labour a lot (Birmingham Edgbaston is a perfect example of this - a Labour marginal in Birmingham with a retiring incumbent that most people thought would go Tory, but actually they got the biggest majority they ever have there) while outside that the swing was lower or towards the Tories.

[Polkergeist]

There are big variations within that though - the big cities have swung to Labour a lot (Birmingham Edgbaston is a perfect example of this - a Labour marginal in Birmingham with a retiring incumbent that most people thought would go Tory, but actually they got the biggest majority they ever have there) while outside that the swing was lower or towards the Tories.

Very true

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Pretty sure the exit poll had Con at 314?

I think there was an updated exit poll that came out a few hours after. I remember that some of the numbers got changed a bit.

[parochial boy]

The North West swinging towards Labour does stick out a bit; what happened in socially-liberal, highly educated areas of the south is understandable, but the North West sticks out from the rest of the post-industrial England as it hasn't trended to the right in the same way. Even in the EU referendum, the North West was much closer than the rest of the North and the Midlands were.

I understand that a lot of this is due to both Manchester and the extreme levels of Labour support in Merseyside (which is a curious phenomenon in itself), but Labour winning in places like Bury North is really something of a shock.

[Webnicz]

It is still hard for me to pinpoint why Scotland had a conservative surge if they were so opposed to brexit...tides turning in favor of brexit?

[Polkergeist]

It is still hard for me to pinpoint why Scotland had a conservative surge if they were so opposed to brexit...tides turning in favor of brexit?

It seems to me that pro-brexit voters in Scotland flocked to the Conservatives. The Conservatives did have a low base to begin with in Scotland, they only polled 14.9% in 2015.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Percentage majorities in Wales.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Ironic that Scotland saved the Tories.

[Babeuf]

Has there been any analysis of the new Labour intake and how they may affect the factional balance of the PLP?

[jimrtex]

Here's a map of coal mines in the UK. Anybody want to comment on what it looks remarkably similar too?

Areas that have lost population?

How is Coalisland pronounced?

[Intell]

Here's a map of coal mines in the UK. Anybody want to comment on what it looks remarkably similar too?

Areas that have lost population?

How is Coalisland pronounced?

try again.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Some Irish might be happy that DUP will be in coalition.

Fintan O’Toole: DUP has done the most for a united Ireland
Unionist party’s idiocy and sleazy behaviour threatens Northern Ireland’s foundations

http://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/fintan-o-toole-dup-has-done-the-most-for-a-united-ireland-1.2956656

[adma]

Anyone note that this is the second consecutive election where a former Lib Dem leader was defeated?

[Shadows]

BTW brilliant job Momentum & kudos to the ex-Bernie Sanders campaign people who flew to the UK in helping train people to organize, canvass & in the introduction of new technology. Momentum did a brilliant job with the videos & in mobilizing via social media !

'Join Labour' searches surge after Jeremy Corbyn electrifies country with shock result

From 8 June to 7pm on 9 June, searches for “join Labour” rose 72 points relative to previous searches for the topic. The biggest jumps came at 10pm, when the exit poll predicted a hung parliament and at 8am when the scale of the Labour advance was obvious. By contrast, the Conservatives saw a modest increase of 31 points relative to previous searches at 7am while the Liberal Democrats remained mostly static.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/join-labour-party-register-member-corbyn-election-result-google-searches-a7782866.html

[136or142]

Adam Stirling‏
@Adam_Stirling
Following
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Hillary Clinton's vote: 48.2%

"What a horrible corporatist. Bernie would have won."

Corbyn's Labour Pty vote: 40%

"Corbyn basically won."

[catographer]

Adam Stirling‏
@Adam_Stirling
Following
More
Hillary Clinton's vote: 48.2%

"What a horrible corporatist. Bernie would have won."

Corbyn's Labour Pty vote: 40%

"Corbyn basically won."

I feel like the fight between globalism and nationalism is less of a victory for nationalism than people think. The only victories for the nationalists have been narrow (Trump & Brexit), whereas the globalists have won nearly all election tests, especially since Trump (Netherlands, France, Austria, Labour gains in UK).

[136or142]

Adam Stirling‏
@Adam_Stirling
Following
More
Hillary Clinton's vote: 48.2%

"What a horrible corporatist. Bernie would have won."

Corbyn's Labour Pty vote: 40%

"Corbyn basically won."

I feel like the fight between globalism and nationalism is less of a victory for nationalism than people think. The only victories for the nationalists have been narrow (Trump & Brexit), whereas the globalists have won nearly all election tests, especially since Trump (Netherlands, France, Austria, Labour gains in UK).

The important test will be whether the newly elected globalists acknowledge the valid points of the nationalists and address them, whether that's in finding ways to address that the gains from free trade have gone almost entirely to the top 1% or that immigration (and unrestricted property buying) have lead in some areas to large increases in housing prices.

I think to some degree the Trump era was probably kicked off with Thomas Piketty's book.  The irony is that, in the United States anyway, the response was a vote for mindless (right wing) nationalism with simplistic and ridiculous 'solutions' rather than a vote for a thoughtful response.