UK General Election, 2017 - Election Day and Results Thread

[Hnv1]

Ok. What the hell happened in Hove? Where did all these Lab voters came from?

[YL]

Some of the swings in the south are... unreal.  Like we've all talked about Canterbury - but there's a bunch of other seats with similar increases.  Hove - Tory from until time began most likely until 1997, they regained it from Labour in 2010 before it went back to Labour in 2015) now has a 20,000 majority with a 15% swing from the Conservatives to Labour.  Brighton Kemptown, Tory since 2010 and before 1997 it was only Labour between 1964 and 1970: 10,000 Labour majority, swing of over 10% to Labour.  Portsmouth South - never Labour, Liberal Democrat from 1997 to 2015, Labour's share of the vote is up 20% and there's a 10% swing to Labour there as well.  Its not even just "metropolitan" areas where this is the case but even the rock-solid safe Labour seats - Labour got 17,000 votes of the Isle of bloody Wight - collectively, they and the Greens were only 10,000 votes behind the Tories (in a place that voted quite heavily to leave the EU).  That's the real interesting part of this election in my eyes...

I got the impression that the Tory candidate in Hove was not exactly the best choice.  The result is still stunning, though.

It's been observed in another place that recent local election results suggest Worthing is trending Labour, and this election saw Labour surges of nearly 20 percentage points in both East Worthing & Shoreham and Worthing West.  The former, in particular, which is the first seat westwards along the Sussex coast from Hove, had its majority cut to under 10% and finds itself on the marginal list.  Based solely on the size of the majority, it's more of a Labour target than, say, Cannock Chase.

Labour did do well in some traditional marginals.  I particularly noticed High Peak (7% swing) and Colne Valley because they're near here; results in the West Yorkshire marginals were generally not too bad though it was disappointing Calder Valley didn't fall.  I think the Labour performance in marginals was indeed worse in the Midlands (NB High Peak isn't in the Midlands, whatever official regional boundaries might suggest) outside Birmingham and the university-influenced Warwick & Leamington (it doesn't have a university in the constituency, but lots of students and academics at the University of Warwick live there).

[136or142]

Ok. What the hell happened in Hove? Where did all these Lab voters came from?

Not sure, this is the M.P

Peter Kyle (born 9 September 1970) is a British Labour Party politician and former charity sector executive. He has been the Member of Parliament (MP) for Hove since the May 2015 general election.[1]

It's funny.  Here in North America the head of a non profit is generally referred to as the Executive Director, and a corporate vice president is called an executive, and it's the opposite in the U.K (vice presidents are called corporate directors).

[cp]

It'd be interesting to see what level Tory support is amongst Catholics and gays right now.

FWIW, my highly conservative but delightfully Catholic mother in law (voting in Kingston-upon-Thames) hesitated about voting Lib Dem this time because she was not fond of Tim Farron's opposition to gay marriage

I doubt there would be much shift in either group because of this. I'll be very keen to see the reaction to the Tory contingent in the London pride parade next month. They were quietly tolerated and seemed to enjoy themselves in 2015. Rather subdued in 2016.

[SPQR]

Something which I haven't seen discussed at all...the local elections from last month.
How to reconcile such large differences in the results, if not by blaming May's electoral campaign and praising Corbyn's (and his success in increasing the youth turnout)?

I mean, now everyone is praising Labour and Corbyn for doing much better than expected, but the negative expectations didn't just come out of the blue or personal aversion to Corbyn...there had been heavy losses in all by-elections and local elections, and all national polls agreed in showing a large gap between Tories and Labour.

So, are we looking at an election in which the last month of campaigning actually explains most of the voting dynamics?

[Shadows]

Sky -

Most important issue deciding vote

Health 23%
Economy 20%
Immigration 15%
Security & terrorism 14%
Britain's relationship with the EU 14%

Seems Healthcare is the top issue now. Far bigger than Brexit !

[Antonio the Sixth]

Is anyone up to drawing a net swing map by constituency? I'd be very interested in unpacking the patterns there.

[YL]

Best Labour vote share changes:

Bristol West +30.3 (!)
York Central +22.8
Truro & Falmouth +22.5
Cardiff Central +22.4
Hove +21.8
Bristol South +21.7
Norwich South +21.7
Portsmouth South +21.5
Bristol East +21.5
Canterbury +20.5

Best Conservative vote share changes:

Gordon +29.0% (!)
Clacton +27.2%
Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey +24.6
Ochil & South Perthshire +20.8
Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock +20.3
Boston & Skegness +19.8
Ashfield +19.4
Aberdeen South +19.3
Banff & Buchan +19.2
West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine +19.0

Best Lib Dem vote share changes:

Richmond Park +25.8
Bath +17.6
Oxford West & Abingdon +14.8
Twickenham +14.7
St Albans +13.9
Witney +13.7
Vauxhall +13.7
Kingston & Surbiton +10.3
Winchester +10.2
St Ives +9.4

Worst Labour vote share changes:

Ochil & South Perthshire -8.4
East Renfrewshire -7.3
Aberdeen South -6.2
Paisley & Renfrewshire South -4.1
Dumfries & Galloway -3.8
Stirling -3.4
Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock -3.4
Richmond Park -3.2
Twickenham -2.3
Kilmarnock & Loudoun -1.5

Worst Conservative vote share changes:

Richmond Park -13.1
Battersea -10.8
Chelsea & Fulham -10.3
Kensington -10.1
Hampstead & Kilburn -10.0
Putney -9.7
Tooting -8.8
Vauxhall -8.6
Westminster North -8.5
Hove -8.4

Worst Lib Dem vote share changes:

Bradford East -27.7
Gordon 21.1
Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey -19.0
Hornsey & Wood Green -15.7
Ross, Skye & Lochaber -15.0
Burnley -14.4
Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk -14.0
Cardiff Central -13.7
Ashfield -13.1
West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine -12.8

[YL]

Given how concentrated the good Tory performances were in Scotland and the bad ones in London, here are lists excluding those.

Best Tory performances outside Scotland:

Clacton +27.2
Boston & Skegness +19.8
Ashfield +19.4
Heywood & Middleton +18.9
Mansfield +18.5
Stoke on Trent North +17.9
Burnley +17.5
Stoke on Trent Central +17.2
Redcar +17.0
Rother Valley +17.0

Worst Tory performances outside London:

Hove -8.4
Witney -4.7
Esher & Walton -4.3
South West Surrey -4.1
Reading East -3.7
Brighton Pavilion -3.6
St Albans -3.5
Warwick & Leamington -3.5
Oxford West & Abingdon -3.3
Winchester -2.8

[Antonio the Sixth]

I calculated the results under PR by region (Sainte-Laguë, 10% threshold):

Tory: 298 (-20)
Labour: 288 (+26)
SNP: 24 (-11)
LD: 18 (+6)
DUP 8 (-2)
SF 6 (-1)
PC 4 (=)
UUP 2 (+2)
SDLP 2 (+2)

[parochial boy]

Ok. What the hell happened in Hove? Where did all these Lab voters came from?

Hove is basically indistinguishable from Brighton (especially now that no-one can afford to live in Brighton any more). And Brighton is the San Francisco of England

[136or142]

Ongoing election analysis

World-leading communication research from Loughborough University Centre for Research in Communication and Culture. Analysing #GE2017
https://twitter.com/lboroCRCC

[Hnv1]

Ok. What the hell happened in Hove? Where did all these Lab voters came from?

Hove is basically indistinguishable from Brighton (especially now that no-one can afford to live in Brighton any more). And Brighton is the San Francisco of England

I know Brighton (though I think Hove is still slightly to the right of Brighton), question is where did this increase in voters come from

[adma]

What happened: Theresa May = Gorgeous Gorillawitz in pearls (this *so* captures the May vs Corbyn dynamic)
https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x4i66k8

[136or142]

Ok. What the hell happened in Hove? Where did all these Lab voters came from?

Hove is basically indistinguishable from Brighton (especially now that no-one can afford to live in Brighton any more). And Brighton is the San Francisco of England

I know Brighton (though I think Hove is still slightly to the right of Brighton), question is where did this increase in voters come from

I know Brighton
Brighton was a friend of mine
Hove, you're no Brighton

(sorry)

[136or142]

Any possibility The Conservative Party could be shamed to back out of this deal with DUP and the Liberal Democrats could step into the breach, not with a coalition but by agreeing to give their votes on supply and confidence measures?

[Hnv1]

Any possibility The Conservative Party could be shamed to back out of this deal with DUP and the Liberal Democrats could step into the breach, not with a coalition but by agreeing to give their votes on supply and confidence measures?

Not for any price May will be willing to pay (ref. on final deal)

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

The North West swinging towards Labour does stick out a bit; what happened in socially-liberal, highly educated areas of the south is understandable, but the North West sticks out from the rest of the post-industrial England as it hasn't trended to the right in the same way. Even in the EU referendum, the North West was much closer than the rest of the North and the Midlands were.

I understand that a lot of this is due to both Manchester and the extreme levels of Labour support in Merseyside (which is a curious phenomenon in itself), but Labour winning in places like Bury North is really something of a shock.

Not really, no.  Bury North was a Labour seat until 2010 and had a very small Tory majority last time.  Labour also have the majority of local councillors in the seat and run the town well - Bury is a thriving place compared to most of the other Manchester satellites.

[Former President tack50]

Adam Stirling‏
@Adam_Stirling
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Hillary Clinton's vote: 48.2%

"What a horrible corporatist. Bernie would have won."

Corbyn's Labour Pty vote: 40%

"Corbyn basically won."

There are big differences between the US and UK systems that explain why 40% is a good result (almost tied with Blair in 2001 actually) in the UK but bad in the US. In the US since the 2 party system is a lot stronger getting 40% means you are losing in a Mondale style landslide unless there's a strong third party (Bill Clinton only got 43% in 92 for example) because the other 60% will go almost entirely to your rival. However third parties are rare in the US.

Also, let's remember that Corbyn was at least 20 points behind when the election was called, and he only lost by 2.5!

If anything this proves that left wing populism can be used to win elections. However, left wing populists record has been mixed. They won in Greece, and kept it close in France and the UK, but they did do badly in Spain other than at the local level (they hold several of the largest cities, including Madrid, Barcelona and Zaragoza)

[Former President tack50]

Adam Stirling‏
@Adam_Stirling
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Hillary Clinton's vote: 48.2%

"What a horrible corporatist. Bernie would have won."

Corbyn's Labour Pty vote: 40%

"Corbyn basically won."

I feel like the fight between globalism and nationalism is less of a victory for nationalism than people think. The only victories for the nationalists have been narrow (Trump & Brexit), whereas the globalists have won nearly all election tests, especially since Trump (Netherlands, France, Austria, Labour gains in UK).

To be fair, this election wasn't really globalists/nationalists. Neither May nor Corbyn was really all that globalist, leaving only the 3rd parties, which send a mixed message. In fact, if anything Corbyn was the populist, not May, and both had nationalist elements in their campaigns.

Nationalist UKIP was indeed obliterated, but most of their vote went to the Tories and Labour (they were previous voters of those parties).

Globalist parties didn't to much better either. The Lib Dems did win 4 seats, but they actually lost 0.5 points in the popular vote! The greens were also obliterated in the popular vote, losing more than half their votes compared to 2015 (although they did keep their only seat with an increased majority)

And that's without getting into the SNP and Plaid. They are clearly nationalists, but their nationalism has nothing to to with Trump and the like (there's no US equivalent actually, other than maybe Puerto Rico).

[Lachi]

Here's a map of coal mines in the UK. Anybody want to comment on what it looks remarkably similar too?

Well It's not surprising, A big chunk of Labour's vote in the past were Working Class voters, and they normally live in those areas.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Is anyone up to drawing a net swing map by constituency? I'd be very interested in unpacking the patterns there.

Swing not particularly meaningful this election given the UKIP collapse and the mobilisation of the student vote.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I know Brighton (though I think Hove is still slightly to the right of Brighton), question is where did this increase in voters come from

Student turnout being the same as turnout from everyone else for the first time ever. Same as in other very heavily Uni influenced constituencies.

[136or142]

Adam Stirling‏
@Adam_Stirling
Following
More
Hillary Clinton's vote: 48.2%

"What a horrible corporatist. Bernie would have won."

Corbyn's Labour Pty vote: 40%

"Corbyn basically won."

There are big differences between the US and UK systems that explain why 40% is a good result (almost tied with Blair in 2001 actually) in the UK but bad in the US. In the US since the 2 party system is a lot stronger getting 40% means you are losing in a Mondale style landslide unless there's a strong third party (Bill Clinton only got 43% in 92 for example) because the other 60% will go almost entirely to your rival. However third parties are rare in the US.

Also, let's remember that Corbyn was at least 20 points behind when the election was called, and he only lost by 2.5!

If anything this proves that left wing populism can be used to win elections. However, left wing populists record has been mixed. They won in Greece, and kept it close in France and the UK, but they did do badly in Spain other than at the local level (they hold several of the largest cities, including Madrid, Barcelona and Zaragoza)

This is the argument I saw in reply to Adam Stirling from several people, but it really doesn't wash.  Labour/Corbyn lost the popular vote 42.6-40.0% whereas Hillary Clinton won the popular vote 48.2-46.1.  And if you use the seat count as a proxy for the electoral college, Hillary Clinton didn't do much worse than Corbyn/Labour.  Losing 306-232 to Corybn's 318-262.

Also, for what it's worth, the 2016 U.S election had the highest vote percentage for third parties since 1996.

[parochial boy]

I know Brighton (though I think Hove is still slightly to the right of Brighton), question is where did this increase in voters come from

Student turnout being the same as turnout from everyone else for the first time ever. Same as in other very heavily Uni influenced constituencies.

Do many of the students at Brighton or Sussex live in Hove? best I could find is that 8% are in full time education?

I wonder if there might also be a combination of the EU referendum accelerating an already existing trend (Brighton and Hove was 69% remain after all - more than London), and the ongoing Southern Rail crisis meaning Corbyn's promise of rail nationalisation was particularly well received.

The North West swinging towards Labour does stick out a bit; what happened in socially-liberal, highly educated areas of the south is understandable, but the North West sticks out from the rest of the post-industrial England as it hasn't trended to the right in the same way. Even in the EU referendum, the North West was much closer than the rest of the North and the Midlands were.

I understand that a lot of this is due to both Manchester and the extreme levels of Labour support in Merseyside (which is a curious phenomenon in itself), but Labour winning in places like Bury North is really something of a shock.

Not really, no.  Bury North was a Labour seat until 2010 and had a very small Tory majority last time.  Labour also have the majority of local councillors in the seat and run the town well - Bury is a thriving place compared to most of the other Manchester satellites.

OK, Bury North might not be the best example - but the swing in the NW was much better for Labour than it was in Yorkshire, the NE or the Midlands; and in contrast to other old industrial elections the North West, both the smalle towns and the two big cities, seem to have held up much better for Labour (and the remain vote in the NW was much higher). As a whole, the region actually seems to be moving left.

I'm also curious as to why Liverpool is so overwhelmingly Labour (and so strongly remain). It wasn't the only city that was destroyed by Thatcher.