UK General Election, 2017 - Election Day and Results Thread

[Lachi]

You put wales down twice, I think the 2nd wales should be England?

[Shadows]

You put wales down twice, I think the 2nd wales should be England?

Yea changed. Point stands. Unless Lab does strongly in Scotland & replaces SNP as the main party, it is impossible for them to for a government on their own. The best case for a Lab PM is a Labour + SNP government !

[Phony Moderate]

Net Lab Gain of 44 seats despite a 8% swing

In British terms that is in fact a 4% swing.

[Shadows]

Which of the following do you think is the biggest reason more people than expected chose to vote for Jeremy Corbyn?   

Scrapping tuition fees - 35%, The arrogance of the Conservatives - 30%, His performance as leader - 22%


Which of the following do you think is the biggest reason more people than expected chose not to vote for Theresa May?   

The “dementia tax” policy - 27%, Her performance as leader - 24%, Failing to take part in televised debates - 18%

 
Regardless of how you voted in the election, which of the following party leaders do you think had the best campaign?

Jeremy Corbyn - 67%, Theresa May - 16%, Don’t know - 17%
 

Which of the following issues best reflects the reason why you changed your mind? LAB

The performances of the leader - 25%, School funding policy - 16%, Social Care policy - 14%


Which of the following is closest to your view?

There should be a second referendum - 36%, There should not be a second referendum - 55%, Don’t know - 9%


In light of the General Election result, which of the following do you prefer?

A “hard” Brexit - 36%, A “soft” Brexit - 47%, Don’t know - 17%


Do you approve or disapprove of Theresa May’s decision to govern with agreed support from the Democratic Unionist Party?

Approve                      33%, Disapprove                  47%, Don’t know                  20%

http://mailchi.mp/survation/post-election-poll-for-the-mail-on-sunday-1118541

[Filuwaúrdjan]

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Hastings and Rye really stands out. Is the constituency markedly different from its surroundings demographically (given its size it looks a bit more densely populated, but not by especially much), was Rudd particularly targeted during the campaign, or is it an issue of Labour candidate quality?

I'd have the same question about Canterbury but you've already explained that that's because of the student vote finally mobilizing.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yes, very different. Hastings these days is what might politely be described as a bit of a dive. Pretty clear that the hinterland (which is more your average prosperous Sussex countryside) pulled her over the line, just.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

One thing that hardly anyone has noticed or noted anywhere but which I saw happening in my very own constituency* is that Labour has suddenly reclaimed all of those rural working class voters it had been shedding at a deeply alarming rate (and in all directions) these past fifteen years. Because of the electoral system it barely matters in practical terms (though has added a further boost to Labour's national PV total, do note) but it is an interesting development.

_{*Observed far more Labour posters than ones for other parties in the grimmer section of the market towns throughout the campaign. Which always used to be the case but had not been so for quite a while...}

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Charles Kennedy's old seat gives the SNP its joint largest majority. Discuss. Also... erm... Coatbridge et al and Glasgow Provan/Springburn for Labour... did the CORBYN IRA CORBYN IRA thing end up having a slightly different effect to that intended?

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

One thing that hardly anyone has noticed or noted anywhere but which I saw happening in my very own constituency* is that Labour has suddenly reclaimed all of those rural working class voters it had been shedding at a deeply alarming rate (and in all directions) these past fifteen years. Because of the electoral system it barely matters in practical terms (though has added a further boost to Labour's national PV total, do note) but it is an interesting development.

_{*Observed far more Labour posters than ones for other parties in the grimmer section of the market towns throughout the campaign. Which always used to be the case but had not been so for quite a while...}

At a minimum it'll mean that the Tories have to spend some amount of money in these places next election. Which is good.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

There's a lot of really close seats in Scotland.

[IceAgeComing]

Charles Kennedy's old seat gives the SNP its joint largest majority. Discuss. Also... erm... Coatbridge et al and Glasgow Provan/Springburn for Labour... did the CORBYN IRA CORBYN IRA thing end up having a slightly different effect to that intended?

Thanks for getting this out so quickly; lots of interesting things in here...  The SNP's relative success in Edinburgh still interests me - Labour seemed to be confident in Edinburgh North and Leith and the Tories moved resources out of South West late in the campaign and everyone thought that it was because they were sure of winning it - if so then it shows the value of complacency in elections!

Also thanks for using the names for the Glasgow seats should have rather than boring calendar directions - they are more descriptive...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

hey guys do you think something happened to piss people off in london?!?!

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

One thing that hardly anyone has noticed or noted anywhere but which I saw happening in my very own constituency* is that Labour has suddenly reclaimed all of those rural working class voters it had been shedding at a deeply alarming rate (and in all directions) these past fifteen years. Because of the electoral system it barely matters in practical terms (though has added a further boost to Labour's national PV total, do note) but it is an interesting development.

_{*Observed far more Labour posters than ones for other parties in the grimmer section of the market towns throughout the campaign. Which always used to be the case but had not been so for quite a while...}

I'm reminded of the map of the 1945 election that you posted a couple of years ago, with the welter of narrow-but-undeniable Labour victories in rural seats all over the Midlands and East Anglia.

[Leftbehind]

Part of a series:

(North East)
http://imgur.com/a/zKBUJ

Would love to go back further to when these really start to become more meaningful (two-party state pre-74) but no handy resources available to hand and I'm not invested enough to pick through every constituency manually.

[Zinneke]

Part of a series:

(North East)
http://imgur.com/a/zKBUJ

Would love to go back further to when these really start to become more meaningful (two-party state pre-74) but no handy resources available to hand and I'm not invested enough to pick through every constituency manually.

Lib Dems actually beating the Tories in the Northeast in 05 and 2010.

Any high profile LibDems in the Northeast?

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

There were Lib Dem MPs in Berwick and Redcar, and I beloved they controlled Newcastle Council during the Blair year.

[Leftbehind]

None particularly high-profile.

North West

http://imgur.com/S91fpKv

[Antonio the Sixth]

Where are you guys getting regional vote breakdowns for 2017 and 2015? I've been looking for them everywhere to no avail...

One thing that hardly anyone has noticed or noted anywhere but which I saw happening in my very own constituency* is that Labour has suddenly reclaimed all of those rural working class voters it had been shedding at a deeply alarming rate (and in all directions) these past fifteen years. Because of the electoral system it barely matters in practical terms (though has added a further boost to Labour's national PV total, do note) but it is an interesting development.

_{*Observed far more Labour posters than ones for other parties in the grimmer section of the market towns throughout the campaign. Which always used to be the case but had not been so for quite a while...}

That's one of the most heartening news of this election. Really good to know.

[Antonio the Sixth]

http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground
This is the website

So Labour won 19 seats and lost 22 by less than 1%. Tories won 17 and lost 19.

With 2%, it's Labour 25/38, Tories 31/28.

With 5%, Labour 54/79, Tories 67/63.

So it looks like Tories did slightly better in the marginals.

[NOVA Green]

So unless I'm mistaken the bottom graph appears to indicate that Labour won roughly 2:1 vs the Tories among UKIP voters?

Or, was there a massive defection of Tory voters to Labour and the UKIP voters split roughly down the Middle in '17?

Any sense of what's going on there?

[NOVA Green]

One thing that hardly anyone has noticed or noted anywhere but which I saw happening in my very own constituency* is that Labour has suddenly reclaimed all of those rural working class voters it had been shedding at a deeply alarming rate (and in all directions) these past fifteen years. Because of the electoral system it barely matters in practical terms (though has added a further boost to Labour's national PV total, do note) but it is an interesting development.

_{*Observed far more Labour posters than ones for other parties in the grimmer section of the market towns throughout the campaign. Which always used to be the case but had not been so for quite a while...}

Does the UK have the equivalent of US voting precincts where these numbers can be broken down into a further level of detail, beyond just constituencies top level results?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

So unless I'm mistaken the bottom graph appears to indicate that Labour won roughly 2:1 vs the Tories among UKIP voters?

Or, was there a massive defection of Tory voters to Labour and the UKIP voters split roughly down the Middle in '17?

Any sense of what's going on there?

Option three: a lot of people who did not vote in 2015 voted in 2017 and voted Labour.

[Tintrlvr]

One thing that hardly anyone has noticed or noted anywhere but which I saw happening in my very own constituency* is that Labour has suddenly reclaimed all of those rural working class voters it had been shedding at a deeply alarming rate (and in all directions) these past fifteen years. Because of the electoral system it barely matters in practical terms (though has added a further boost to Labour's national PV total, do note) but it is an interesting development.

_{*Observed far more Labour posters than ones for other parties in the grimmer section of the market towns throughout the campaign. Which always used to be the case but had not been so for quite a while...}

Does the UK have the equivalent of US voting precincts where these numbers can be broken down into a further level of detail, beyond just constituencies top level results?

No. The UK does not report any results whatsoever at a more granular level than constituencies.

[adma]

Yes, very different. Hastings these days is what might politely be described as a bit of a dive. Pretty clear that the hinterland (which is more your average prosperous Sussex countryside) pulled her over the line, just.

Also, there's a recent past of being represented by New Labour--and by 1997-landslide statistical fluke.  Up to 1992 H&R was deemed typical S England Tory vs Lib territory--in 1992, 47.6% vs 35.2%, with Labour well back at 25.7%.  Then in 1997, Labour pole-vaulted to 34.4%, while the Tories sunk to 29.2% and LD to 28.0%  And with incumbent advantage, H&R morphed from a Con-Lib seat to a Con-Lab seat, which it remains...