UK General Election, 2017 - Election Day and Results Thread

[Boston Bread]

What is the Ipsos-MORI change from the previous poll?

Labour down 4, Tories down 1

Like Yougov, Ipsos-Mori changed their model for the final poll to prevent any outlier result.
Their last poll was 45-40 which was bigger for the big parties than other polls.

[Boston Bread]

How is Sunderland such a safe labour area when it voted heavily for brexit?

Labour's strongest seat, Liverpool Walton (81% in 2015) voted for Brexit as well.

[Boston Bread]

Exit poll was expecting a 7% swing...

How can that be right? A 7% swing nationwide would give Labour the lead in seats, wouldn't it?

[Boston Bread]

Overall the vote efficiency switch happened more in 2015 than in this election. The Lib Dem collapse and Labour weakness in the Midlands were the main causes, all of which happened in 2015.

[Boston Bread]

This is the link to Ashcroft's poll: http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2017/06/result-happen-post-vote-survey/

Biggest point I noticed where that Labour gained more or less equally among all social classes, if you compare it with their 2015 exit polls: https://twitter.com/search?f=tweets&vertical=default&q=ashcroft%20poll&src=typd

[Boston Bread]

And even if Labour's coalition this time was more middle class than it was last time, at least it was due to addition and not subtraction.

[Boston Bread]

I calculated the results under PR by region (Sainte-Laguë, 10% threshold):

Tory: 298 (-20)
Labour: 288 (+26)
SNP: 24 (-11)
LD: 18 (+6)
DUP 8 (-2)
SF 6 (-1)
PC 4 (=)
UUP 2 (+2)
SDLP 2 (+2)

NYT has one, though it's using the 1 hexagon/seat type map.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/06/08/world/europe/british-general-election-results-analysis.html

Also a bit of caution, in some seats in the North where UKIP were second in 2015, Labours margin of victory was higher than in 2015, but with Conservatives coming second instead. So in a sense this seat has been good for Labour but it'd be treated as a swing to the Conservatives as they gained more than Labour. For example in Rotherham Lab won by 30 this time and 22 last time (over UKIP) but it is still a 5 point swing to the Conservatives.

[Boston Bread]

Here's a series of regional maps:
http://imgur.com/a/N36Nr

Only thing missing is showing swings from 2015.

[Boston Bread]

I believe the Labour vote spread has actually become more efficient in this election. Labour needs a uniform swing of 3.3% to get a majority now, and a 2% swing gets them 40 gains. If I recall correctly a 7% swing was needed for a majority based on 2015 results. The list of marginals for both parties have become larger and closer than before, in fact.

https://twitter.com/alantravis40/status/873577214847176704

[Boston Bread]

Where are you guys getting regional vote breakdowns for 2017 and 2015? I've been looking for them everywhere to no avail...

Anyone?

I thought I already posted this, but here's one for 2017.
https://m.imgur.com/a/N36Nr

[Boston Bread]

For Tony:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Results_breakdown_of_the_United_Kingdom_general_election,_2017
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_election,_2017_(England)

Vote totals for each English region are there, as well as swings. They don't have detailed English region results in 2015, I'm afraid.

[Boston Bread]

What Leave constituency/ies did the Lib Dems pick up?

None, they picked up remain seats in Scotland due to the SNP  drop.

[Boston Bread]

What Leave constituency/ies did the Lib Dems pick up?

Eastbourne, with Carshalton and Norfolk North being Leave holds.

Oh, I wasn't aware of that. Sorry.

[Boston Bread]

Huh, I would have thought the North had a swing to labour. Wasn't the only region to swing Conservative the North East?

[Boston Bread]

Looking at the Ipsos Mori exit poll, two things that struck out at me were the huge difference between men under 30 (LAB at 52) and women under 30 (LAB at 73) and the Conservatives only winning leave voters by 7 and losing remain voters by 14.

Those are rather unlikely figures, IMO.

[Boston Bread]

I just got my hands on a detailed spreadsheet from Britain elects: https://t.co/N68zk7FzSm

I did a bit of analysis to check a suspicion I've had about the relationship between Brexit and the swing in the general election.

My hypothesis: If a RIGHT vs LEFT swing was calculated instead of CON vs LAB, it would eliminate the correlation between Brexit and swing, since it would take into account UKIP's collapse.

I calculate the Left-Right swing as (change in CON+UKIP-LAB-LD-SNP-GRN-PC vote share)/2.
ie. CON and UKIP on the right and LAB, LD, SNP, GRN, PC on the left.
It's debatable whether LD should be included in the left but I felt under Farron they were left of centre. I wouldn't have included them as left under Clegg.

I plotted the results, and it seems to confirm my hypothesis:



In fact Brexit and a swing to the right are slightly negatively correlated, and the correlation is still close to zero if you remove Scotland.

[Boston Bread]

I think the best way to interpret my findings isn't "Labour has no problems with its leave voters", it's rather "Labour's problem with its leave voters began before Corbyn's leadership".

There are tons of Labour leave seats could have been lost in 2015 if the Conservatives had a relatively nationalist leader and UKIP was not a factor, so it was impressive that Labour held almost all of them in 2017 when the Conservatives had a relatively nationalist leader and UKIP was not a factor.