UK General Election, 2017 - Election Day and Results Thread

[Tintrlvr]

Not likely to be posting much on the night if at all and perhaps not even after (explain why here), but here's something to keep in mind for you all...

Contrary to popular belief - and guess who is responsible for maintaining this! - the people running the campaigns in each constituency (and therefore the national campaigns) don't really know (and never do) exactly what is going on. The necessary data is is not collected - canvassing data is a much weirder thing than is widely assumed - and would be impossible to collate anyway. What they have are general impressions, and while these can be accurate they can also be extremely wrong. At the last GE I helped out in a seat that was lost by what turned out to be a rather large margin and on a much worse swing than the national average; on the day the people running the campaign very clearly believed they were slightly ahead. One issue is that local campaigns are very much based on a GOTV principle but in a General Election most of the people voting do so totally independently of the exhortations of rosette-festooned activists.

Or to cut an overlong post short: even the parties themselves won't know what has happened until 10pm, same as everyone else. Because it is also not the case that private polling for parties is any more accurate than published polling for newspapers.

A related point is that early rumours from the various counts are very often wrong. Often they start spreading around even before boxes are opened...

Finally, the implied the swings from all the pollsters...

BMG: -3.0
ICM: -2.5
ComRes: -1.5
Ipsos-MORI: -0.5
Panelbase: -0.5
YouGov: 0.0
Opinium: 0.0
Kantar: +0.5
SurveyMonkey: +1.5
Survation: +3.0
Qriously: +5.0

_{Qriously may be voodoo thus italics.}

At least we don't have to worry about poll herding...

Sporting Index markets is now around

CON         359.5
CON         208.5
LIB            12
SNP           46
PC               3.5
Greens        1
UKIP            0.5

Moving toward LAB from CON

Predictit around 360 for CON.

Conservatives to win over 550 seats! Labour wiped out!

[Tintrlvr]

so..... Cons+UUP+DUP government or a 'progressive alliance' of everybody with Sinn Fein taking seats to block the conservatives.

Exit polls means CON/DUP/UUP is short of a majority.

Bad position for the Lib Dems to find themselves in, yet again, as they're the only party that could realistically work with either side (well, maybe the DUP could work with Labour in a vacuum but not if the SDLP are also involved, and Corbyn is personally toxic to the DUP). I think they refuse to support the Conservatives over Brexit and there's another election this winter, but hard to know for certain.

We'll see what the actual results are, though. As pointed out, last time the exits also forecast a hung parliament.

[Tintrlvr]

so..... Cons+UUP+DUP government or a 'progressive alliance' of everybody with Sinn Fein taking seats to block the conservatives.

Exit polls means CON/DUP/UUP is short of a majority.

But perhaps not if Sinn Fein doesn't count. As I said, every seat would matter with this result.

Maybe, Sinn Fein had 4 seats, DUP 8 and UUP 2. If that stays the same it means 324-322 for Con-DUP-UUP. Losing only one by-election means the majority would be gone even without Sinn Fein.

And I think there's a good chance the DUP loses Belfast East back to the Alliance (as the UUP stood against the DUP there this time after standing aside in 2015), which would mean no majority even without SF counted.

[Tintrlvr]

Priti Patel will be PM before the month is over.

I don't see why losing seats would result in the Tories turning to a leader further to May's right. How are they going to get a majority for her? The Lib Dems or the SNP aren't going to support PM Patel.

[Tintrlvr]

How is Sarah Olney looking?

Given the general news that the Tories seem to be tanking in London (not really all that shocking; even when they were thought to be headed for a landslide, London was the weak point), I think quite secure.

[Tintrlvr]

Sinn Fein source: no change to abstention policy. https://twitter.com/patrickkmaguire/status/872931498906832898

Who thought that was even a possibility to begin with?

Americans.

[Tintrlvr]

Newcastle upon Tyne Central changes:

Lab +9.9%
Con +5.7%
LD -1.4%
UKIP -10.9%
Green -3.3%

[Tintrlvr]

Swing from LAB to CON?

Yes, small swing to Con in Houghton. Con gained about 5,000 votes while Lab gained about 3,000. Worth noting UKIP was second here in 2015.

[Tintrlvr]

Ha, newly re-elected Labour MP Bridget Phillipson in Houghton and Sunderland South declines to endorse Jeremy Corbyn for Prime Minister on Sky when asked explicitly. "I support the Labour Party."

[Tintrlvr]

Ha, newly re-elected Labour MP Bridget Phillipson in Houghton and Sunderland South declines to endorse Jeremy Corbyn for Prime Minister on Sky when asked explicitly. "I support the Labour Party."

What ?  Even if the exit polls are wrong Corbyn poll off a major political coup with a result like this.

They asked her if she would support Jeremy Corbyn for Prime Minister in a vote, and she basically refused to respond to the question and said she supports the Labour Party. The opposition to Corbyn within the parliamentary Labour Party has always been more about internal structure and ideology than about his performance. I got the impression it was more of her attempt not to take sides in the internal conflict than anything else; she's a nobody backbencher.

[Tintrlvr]

So hung parliament with Prime Minister Priti Patel.

Again, which non-Tory party is going to support Priti Patel and a further move to the right in a hung parliament? Beyond the DUP and UUP, certainly not any of the potential suitors for the Tories, such as the SNP, LDs, Plaid, etc.

[Tintrlvr]

Very slight swing to the Conservatives in Sunderland Central also, both Labour and Tories gaining about 5,000 votes each.

[Tintrlvr]

Rumors are that Kensington is tight between LAB and CON

This is right up there with "Do coal miners vote Tory?"

[Tintrlvr]

Seems like Tories generally gaining somewhat in Leave areas and Labour gaining somewhat in Remain areas, which probably means close to an overall wash in seats.

[Tintrlvr]

Can anyone explain why the Northeast always comes in first as a pack?

Sunderland and Newcastle have a tradition of pushing to be first to declare. Nowhere else in the Northeast will be all that relatively fast to declare.

[Tintrlvr]

Nuneaton basically even between Con and Lab in terms of gains (0.2% swing to Lab), both up significantly.

[Tintrlvr]

Given these swings then where are the LIB  going to gain seats to get up to double digits ?

Seats where they actually had significant support last time. These seats are all basically irrelevant to them.

[Tintrlvr]

Given these swings then where are the LIB  going to gain seats to get up to double digits ?

Scotland (Edinburgh West, East Dunbartonshire), Kingston and Surbiton, Bath

How about Cambridge? Or is that looking safer for Labour now?

Given what's happened in other student-heavy seats, I would guess Labour hold in Cambridge.

Also Twickenham not mentioned in that list but probably the most likely Lib Dem gain.

Rumors that Caithness could go back to the Lib Dems, too.

[Tintrlvr]

lib dems pick up from....?

SNP

[Tintrlvr]

Meh. It's hard not to blame Clegg for most of the Lib Dems' current problems.

[Tintrlvr]

So I've been at work since polls closed. Apart from Clegg losing and a smalk swing to Labour, how is the overall seat projection looking?

 
  
Apparently Ruth Davidson saved the Tories. Not entirely sure if it will be the 326 though.

326 is the official mark that ignores that Sinn Fein won't take the oath.

The real number is likely 323.

SF has 2 seats so far - if that's all they get then that reduces parliament from 650 to 648 -> 325 needed for a majority.

Sinn Fein had what...4 coming in, one gain from SDLP?  Any others?

They had four coming in (all very safe) and have had two gains from the SDLP thus far, South Down and Foyle. I think they are favored to take Fermanagh and South Tyrone back from the UUP as well. It's possible they could swipe Belfast South from the SDLP, too, though that one could also go DUP or Alliance or stay with the SDLP and will almost certainly have the lowest winning percentage UK-wide, possibly below 20%!

[Tintrlvr]

Well, a sad day for NI politics--SDLP totally wiped out.  Not a single MP since...they first stood for seats, if I'm not mistaken?

Has Belfast South declared then? Have not seen it.

[Tintrlvr]

Well, a sad day for NI politics--SDLP totally wiped out.  Not a single MP since...they first stood for seats, if I'm not mistaken?

Has Belfast South declared then? Have not seen it.

Went to DUP

Gross

Also, for the first time since 1874, Irish nationalism will not be represented at Westminster.

[Tintrlvr]

Lib Dems gain Tewkesbury from Conservatives

I think this might be an error on Sky News. The Lib Dems have never won that seat before and were way behind in third in 2015. Would be very bizarre.

[Tintrlvr]

Lib Dems gain Oxford West and Abingdon from the Conservatives, apparently.