UK General Election, 2017 - Election Day and Results Thread

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

Sunderland showing that not only are they a very well oiled machine, but also showing that the sun just doesn't realise how late it is XD

You do know how far north the UK is, right?

(Sunderland comes in around 55N).

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

The turnout in Newcastle Central is up from 57% to 67%.  This is the young vote coming out.

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

The Wild Twitter Rumour Stage is clearly in full swing.

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

In the Western Isles, the ferry has arrived with the boxes from Barra.

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

Tories gain Dagenham from Lab

False alarm, Jon Cruddas has held this.

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

Lib Dems gain Tewkesbury from Conservatives

False alarm.  C hold.

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

By my reckoning these seats are still to declare:

SNP - 2
North East Fife            SNP   Multiple recounts
Dumfries/Galloway         SNP

LD - 1
Ceredigion            LD   Multiple recounts

Lab - 6
Newcastle-under-Lyme         Lab   Multiple recounts
Ashfield            Lab   Recount reported
Dudley North            Lab
Southampton Test         Lab   Rumoured to be a hold
Hove               Lab
Ilford South            Lab

C - 21
Dumfriesshire/Clydesdale/Tweeddale   C
Berwick-upon-Tweed         C
Hexham               C
Crewe and Nantwich         C   Rumoured to be very close
Rutland and Melton         C
Devizes               C
Torridge and West Devon         C
North Cornwall            C
South West Cornwall         C
Truro and Falmouth         C
St Austell and Newquay         C
St Ives               C
Southampton Itchen         C
Basingstoke            C
North East Hampshire         C
Crawley               C
Croydon South            C
Richmond Park            C   LD by-election gain, recounting
Kensington            C   Rumours of a Lab gain earlier in the night
Hendon               C
Chipping Barnet            C

Grn - 1
Brighton Pavilion         Grn

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

The North West swinging towards Labour does stick out a bit; what happened in socially-liberal, highly educated areas of the south is understandable, but the North West sticks out from the rest of the post-industrial England as it hasn't trended to the right in the same way. Even in the EU referendum, the North West was much closer than the rest of the North and the Midlands were.

I understand that a lot of this is due to both Manchester and the extreme levels of Labour support in Merseyside (which is a curious phenomenon in itself), but Labour winning in places like Bury North is really something of a shock.

Not really, no.  Bury North was a Labour seat until 2010 and had a very small Tory majority last time.  Labour also have the majority of local councillors in the seat and run the town well - Bury is a thriving place compared to most of the other Manchester satellites.

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

Electoral Calculus have done an analysis of how the results would have looked on the provisional 2018 boundaries.

Headline figure: C 298 Lab 245 SNP 32 SF 9 DUP 7 LD 7 PC 1 Ind 1 Grn 0, which is three seats short of a majority for the Conservatives but enough to govern alone as the combined opposition without Sinn Fein is only 293 seats.

Analysis: In east London, Ilford South (Lab) is abolished but the knock-on effects create a new safe Labour seat of Forest Gate and Loxford and wipe out the IDS majority in Chingford and Woodford Green, which takes territory from Walthamstow and becomes a notional Labour seat.

In north London, Enfield Southgate (Lab) is abolished but much of it goes into Finchley and Golders Green, which is renamed Finchley and Southgate and flips to Labour.  Chelsea and Fulham (C) is abolished but the Chelsea half goes into the Kensington seat and flips it back to the Tories.  Diane Abbott's seat of Hackney North and Stoke Newington disappears, but the knock-on effects flip Cities of London and Westminster (of all seats) to Labour.  The Harrow and Hillingdon seats are heavily redrawn to Labour's advantage with Harrow East (C) replaced by Kenton (Lab) and Boris' Uxbridge and South Ruislip (C) replaced by Hillingdon and Uxbridge (Lab).

In south London, Mitcham and Morden (Lab) is abolished but much of it goes into Wimbledon, which loses its best Tory wards, is renamed Merton and Wimbledon Central and becomes a notional Labour seat.  The knock-on effects wipe out the Lib Dem majority in Carshalton and Wallington which flips to the Tories.  Two Labour seats in Lewisham are abolished (Deptford, and West/Penge) but one is created (Peckham and Lewisham West).  So overall the Conservatives lose five seats in London, the Lib Dems lose one and Labour gain one.

In Kent, Faversham and Mid Kent (C) is abolished but much of it goes into Canterbury and turns the new Canterbury and Faversham back into a notional Tory seat.

The Brighton area is heavily redrawn, with Kempton (Lab) replaced by Brighton East and Newhaven which is notionally Conservative and Pavilion (Grn) replaced by Brighton North which is notionally Labour.

In Hampshire, Meon Valley (C) is abolished and the knock-on effects flip Southampton Itchen from the Conservatives to Labour.  In Oxfordshire, Oxford West and Abingdon flips from the Lib Dems to the Tories.  The Isle of Wight is divided into two notionally Conservative seats, so overall in the South East the Tories gain a seat while the Greens and Lib Dems lose one each.

The Eastern region has only three changes to note: Witham (C) disappears while the redrawn Norwich North and Watford both flip from Conservative to Labour.

In the South West, Bournemouth West (C) and North Cornwall (C) disappear.  The redrawn Stroud flips from Labour to Conservative, but Camborne and Redruth (C) is replaced by Falmouth and Camborne which Baxter has as notionally Labour with a majority of three votes.

In Warwickshire, Kenilworth and Southam (C) disappears but much of its territory goes into Warwick and Leamington, whose successor seat of Leamington and Kenilworth is notionally Conservative.  In Coventry, Coventry North West (Lab) has a strongly Tory ward to the west added to become Coventry West and Meriden and a notional Conservative seat.  Elsewhere in the West Midlands county, the Labour seats of Birmingham Hall Green and Dudley North are abolished, but Halesowen and Rowley Regis (C) takes in part of Birmingham to become Birmingham Selly Oak and Halesowen and a notional Labour seat.  In the Marches, North Herefordshire (C) is abolished.  Finally in Staffordshire, Stoke-on-Trent Central (Lab) disappears but the knock-on effects bring Stoke South back into the Labour column.  So overall the Conservatives are down four seats in the West Midlands region with Labour down two.

By contrast, the Tories do well out of the East Midlands boundary changes: the redrawn Derby South and Lincoln are both notional Tory seats, while Gedling (Lab) and NE Derbyshire (C) disppear, so the Tories are up one here and Laboiur down three.

Turning to the North West, in Merseyside two Labour seats are abolished (Liverpool Walton and Wirral South).  In Cheshire Tatton (C) disappears but the knock-on effects turn Weaver Vale (Lab) into a safe Conservative seat. 

There are major changes in eastern Greater Manchester.  Oldham East and Saddleworth (Lab) disappears.  In Stockport borough Stockport (Lab) is abolished but most of its territory goes into Cheadle to form a new seat of Stockport South and Cheadle: this is notionally Labour, but nearby a new Tory seat of Bramhall and Poynton is created.  Elsewhere in Greater Manchester, the redrawn Bolton West flips from C to Lab.

In Lancashire, Pendle (C) disappears.  Lancaster and Fleetwood (Lab) also disappears but the knock-on effects turn the Conservative seat of Morecambe and Lunesdale into the Labour seat of Lancaster and Morecambe.

In Cumbria it's all rather complicated.  The seat which disappears is Workington (Lab), but the knock-on effects flip Copeland (C) into Workington and Whitehaven (a safe Labour seat), while Barrow and Furness (Lab) and Westmorland and Lonsdale (LD) both flip to the Conservatives.  So overall Labour lose four seats in the North West, the Tories are down two and the Lib Dems are wiped out in the region.

In West Yorkshire, Bradford South (Lab) and Leeds West (Lab) disappear, but the knock-on effects flip Batley and Morley (the successor to Morley and Outwood), Calder Valley and Pudsey from the Tories to Labour while Keighley flips the other way.  The redrawn Pudsey is a safe Labour seat.  In South Yorkshire, Penistone and Stocksbridge (Lab) disappears.  In the East Riding, David Davis' seat of Haltemprice and Howden (C) disappears, while on the other side of the Humber the Labour seat of Great Grimsby turns into a notional Tory seat of Grimsby North and Barton.

The changes in the North East region don't affect the three Tory seats with the entire loss of four seats coming at the expense of Labour.

The boundary changes in Wales shaft Plaid, with Arfon being abolished, Dwyfor Meirionnydd merged with various bits of western Clwyd into a notional Tory seat of Clwyd North and Gwynedd, and Carmarthen East merged with the Tory Carmarthen West to form a single Carmarthenshire seat which is notionally Labour.  Ironically Ceredigion (redrawn as Ceredigion and North Pembrokeshire) is the last Plaid seat standing.  Cardiff Central (Lab) is abolished, but the knock-on effects turn Vale of Glamorgan (C) into Vale of Glamorgan East which is a notional Labour seat.  Flipping the other way, Montgomeryshire (C) is abolished but part of it goes into Clwyd South (Lab), with the new Clwyd South and Montgomeryshire North being notionally Tory.  Six other Labour seats in Wales are abolished, while the Tory seats of Aberconwy and Clwyd West are merged together.

Scotland just got interesting.  In Edinburgh, Edinburgh South (Lab) disappears but the knock-on effects flip both Edinburgh East, and Edinburgh South West and Central (successor to SW) from the SNP to Labour.  The SNP get some compensation as the redrawn Edinburgh West flips to them from the Lib Dems.  South of Edinburgh, the Midlothian seat gains Peebles and flips from Labour to the SNP, while it's also good news for the SNP west of Edinburgh where the new Falkirk seat is notionally theirs.

The boundary changes are less good news for the SNP in the Glasgow area, where Glasgow North disappars, Glasgow East flips to Labour and Motherwell and Wishaw disappears.  Central Ayrshire (SNP) is also abolished.

North of the Forth it's all rather complicated.  The Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath (Lab) seat disappears but much of its territory goes into the new seat of Kinross-shire and Cowdenbeath which is notionally Conservative.  However, it's bad news for the Tories overall because the knock-on effects merge together the Conservative Stirling and Ochil seats into a new Clackmannanshire and Stirling North seat which is notionally SNP.  The Tory seat of Angus also disappears.  The final seat to disappear is Ross, Skye and Lochaber (SNP) but the knock-on effects turn Highland North (successor to Caithness) into a notional SNP seat.  So overall the SNP are down three seats in Scotland, the Tories and Lib Dems are down two each and Labour are up one.

Finally to Northern Ireland and the reason why this has become an academic exercise, for the proposed new boundaries in the Province are very bad for the Unonists.  In Belfast, South (DUP) disappears while North flips to SF.  Mid Ulster (SF) disappears and a new DUP seat (West Down) is created, but the knock-on effects flip Glenshane (the successor to East Londonderry) and Upper Bann to Sinn Fein.  That puts Sinn Fein notionally on nine seats to seven for the DUP and one for Lady Hermon - a nationalist majority.