UK General Election, 2017 - Election Day and Results Thread

[Phony Moderate]

It's now election day over here.

We still probably have an Ipsos-MORI poll to be released in the afternoon, maybe a YouGov 'how did you vote?' poll too. And of course the exit poll as soon as polling stations close at 10:00PM.

[Phony Moderate]

This is totally anecdotal of course, but I was talking to some of the people I used to work with in London. In 2015, I would say about 70% voted Conservative, this time, not a single one is.

Obviously, middle class twenty-somethings in London are a bit of an odd demographic in this election, but there are definitely a crowd of more-or-less socially liberal, right leaning voters who are plumping for the Communist over the Fascist.

Yeah, people who are happy to take a 0.3% tax increase or whatever over having their emails read.

[Phony Moderate]

You get rumours and reports throughout the day but nothing official. In general these tend to overestimate turnout.

[Phony Moderate]

And yet Corbyn has moved closer to May as preferred PM. Go figure.

[Phony Moderate]

Well, oh...

[Phony Moderate]

ITN is reporting that May is "likely" to announce his resignation in the morning

And a sex change?

[Phony Moderate]

Two key points about the DUP:

- They aren't keen on austerity
- They aren't keen on a Hard Brexit (well, their leader Arlene Foster isn't anyway)

[Phony Moderate]

It'd be interesting to see what level Tory support is amongst Catholics and gays right now.

[Phony Moderate]

To add to that, I've just been doing the rounds at various drinking holes and talking to a number of people (a majority of whom probably voted Tory on Thursday) and have come to the conclusion that the Tories will suffer a 1931-in-reverse result if May leads them into the next election.

[Phony Moderate]

Net Lab Gain of 44 seats despite a 8% swing

In British terms that is in fact a 4% swing.

[Phony Moderate]

[Phony Moderate]

Lots of "Tories ran worst campaign ever, yet Labour still lost!!!" type of comments still going around. The point being missed is that the reason why the Tory campaign is seen as the worst is due to the result. The 2015 Tory campaign received heavy criticism...until the results came in, at which point it became highly praised. 

[Phony Moderate]

Opinion poll graph since 1943 I made.

Beware if you open it if you have a slug computer like mine. The file is moderately large.

http://orig01.deviantart.net/a05d/f/2017/190/3/1/1943_2017_graph_of_uk_polls_by_thumboy21-dbfnp07.png

Source:
https://www.markpack.org.uk/opinion-polls/

On thing that was always weird to me was that the 1945 result was considered a shock.  It seems that in 1943-1945 LAB was well ahead of CON in the polls but it seems that the Churchill and CON were convinced that they would win.  I assume the reason for this was that  Churchill was convinced the personal vote for him would overcome the party poll deficit.  

The reason was that virtually no one either knew about polls back then or if they did then they didn't care what they were showing. Opinion polling only began here in 1943 and didn't really become a key player in British political life until the 1960s.