UK General Election, 2017 - Election Day and Results Thread

[Antonio the Sixth]

Well, that sure makes me Qrious about them.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Also, big news, guys!

We got a poll with Labour ahead! Never heard of Qriously though.

Labour 41
Conservatives 39
Lib Dems 6
UKIP 3
Others 11

I got the Qriously results from 538. Does anyone have info SNP and Greens in the Qriously poll?

Excellent news, but I don't want to get my hopes up.

You support Labour?

It does look like the Tories are going into the day with some slight momentum. Just what they need.

No party has "momentum" unless you're cherry-picking which polls to look at.

[Antonio the Sixth]

You support Labour?

Yeah, I can't stand May and Corbyn is definitely one of the better Labourites IMO. Really looking forward to the results.

Also like you said, the polls are all over the place, so it's not as if any result (save a Labour landslide) would surprise me here.

I see. I'm honestly not fond of Corbyn as a person (although I love his policies!), so I find it interesting that you like him. Of course he's still an infinitely better human being than May either way.

[Antonio the Sixth]

What is the Ipsos-MORI change from the previous poll?

[Antonio the Sixth]

What is the Ipsos-MORI change from the previous poll?

Labour down 4, Tories down 1

Huh.

[Antonio the Sixth]

What a beautiful, beautiful night. Thank you Jeremy!

UKIP voters screwed the Tories tonight and for they are big fools as they voted for a far right candidate in 2015 and then far left in 2017.

Yes, how dare disaffected working-class voters not support the party of NHS cuts, dementia tax, and fox hunting...

[Antonio the Sixth]

What a beautiful, beautiful night. Thank you Jeremy!

UKIP voters screwed the Tories tonight and for they are big fools as they voted for a far right candidate in 2015 and then far left in 2017.

Yes, how dare disaffected working-class voters not support the party of NHS cuts, dementia tax, and fox hunting...

Then why did they vote for a far right candidate in 2015 .

BECAUSE POLITICS ARE NOT ONE-DIMENSIONAL

[Antonio the Sixth]

I hadn't realized so many constituencies had flipped from Labour to the Tories. Anything particular about these places?

[Antonio the Sixth]

I hadn't realized so many constituencies had flipped from Labour to the Tories. Anything particular about these places?

very high leave vote

e.g. stoke on trent south

Ugh, that's worrying.

[Antonio the Sixth]

In 2010, Tories had a 7-point lead over Labour and won 48 more seats. Now with a 2.5 point lead they'll have 56 or 58 more. So it looks like the structural advantage due to FPP has shifted hard to the Tories.

[Antonio the Sixth]

The fact that Scotland is part of the problem doesn't make it less of a problem.

But yeah, the results out of England are somewhat promising. Does anyone have the vote totals by regions?

[Antonio the Sixth]

No seat totals by region? LOL, that's ridiculous. Hopefully Wikipedia will compute them soon enough.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Is anyone up to drawing a net swing map by constituency? I'd be very interested in unpacking the patterns there.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I calculated the results under PR by region (Sainte-Laguë, 10% threshold):

Tory: 298 (-20)
Labour: 288 (+26)
SNP: 24 (-11)
LD: 18 (+6)
DUP 8 (-2)
SF 6 (-1)
PC 4 (=)
UUP 2 (+2)
SDLP 2 (+2)

[Antonio the Sixth]

Is anyone up to drawing a net swing map by constituency? I'd be very interested in unpacking the patterns there.

Swing not particularly meaningful this election given the UKIP collapse and the mobilisation of the student vote.

I know that that's likely what we would see in a swing map, but why isn't it interesting to see?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Is anyone up to drawing a net swing map by constituency? I'd be very interested in unpacking the patterns there.

Swing not particularly meaningful this election given the UKIP collapse and the mobilisation of the student vote.

I know that that's likely what we would see in a swing map, but why isn't it interesting to see?

I posted a link to one, in case you missed it.

I'd seen that NYT abomination before, yeah. That sure as hell doesn't qualify as a map.

[Antonio the Sixth]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cNDdBY5sKAU

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[Antonio the Sixth]

General question : the Beeb reported past G/E results by regions

Link please? I haven't been able to find it.

[Antonio the Sixth]

General question : the Beeb reported past G/E results by regions

Link please? I haven't been able to find it.

2010 (click on a region)
2005 (click the drop-down on the right)
2001 (click the dropdown in the middle)

No 2015?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Where are you guys getting regional vote breakdowns for 2017 and 2015? I've been looking for them everywhere to no avail...

One thing that hardly anyone has noticed or noted anywhere but which I saw happening in my very own constituency* is that Labour has suddenly reclaimed all of those rural working class voters it had been shedding at a deeply alarming rate (and in all directions) these past fifteen years. Because of the electoral system it barely matters in practical terms (though has added a further boost to Labour's national PV total, do note) but it is an interesting development.

_{*Observed far more Labour posters than ones for other parties in the grimmer section of the market towns throughout the campaign. Which always used to be the case but had not been so for quite a while...}

That's one of the most heartening news of this election. Really good to know.

[Antonio the Sixth]

http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground
This is the website

So Labour won 19 seats and lost 22 by less than 1%. Tories won 17 and lost 19.

With 2%, it's Labour 25/38, Tories 31/28.

With 5%, Labour 54/79, Tories 67/63.

So it looks like Tories did slightly better in the marginals.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Where are you guys getting regional vote breakdowns for 2017 and 2015? I've been looking for them everywhere to no avail...

Anyone?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Where are you guys getting regional vote breakdowns for 2017 and 2015? I've been looking for them everywhere to no avail...

Anyone?

I thought I already posted this, but here's one for 2017.
https://m.imgur.com/a/N36Nr

Oh, yes, I'd seen that, sorry.

I was hoping for actual vote totals. I also still can't fin 2015 anywhere.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I do have a question to someone more qualified. What explains the Conservative strength in the Cities of London & Westminster constituency? Apparently, it's highly educated and affluent with a majority of residents being foreign-born, but that's not unique to any particular London constituency. (I suppose, to a certain extent, my question extends to the Chelsea and Fulham constituency as well.) I have a hard time wrapping my mind around modern urban conservatism considering it's almost nonexistent in the US (in terms of voters as opposed to politicians).

It's really not surprising at all in the British context (if anything, what's shocking is to see Labour win seats like Kensington). Thank God we have a country where class politics is still a thing.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Is it really just that the affluent in that part of London votes heavily Conservative (although apparently with greatly diminished numbers)?

I mean, yes, it is. Al or another British poster can correct me if I'm wrong, but, but I really think it boils down to the fact that class is still, if not the, at least one of the defining factors of British political cleavages. It might have been a bit less true this time around (although Al actually suggested earlier that Labour actually made major gains in some working-class areas), but it's still way truer than it ever was in the US.