Next PM??

[Filuwaúrdjan]

There was a massive Brexit backlash in parts of London. The atmosphere in areas like that in the days and months after the vote was apocalyptic. Additionally the general Kulturkampf tone of the Conservative campaign clearly went down very, very badly... note that Kensington has a lot of people born abroad who are registered to vote but who usually don't bother. And also, of course, note that North Kensington is a dense concentration of very grim public housing and provides a really solid core from which Labour can work with. And of course there's a substantial university element to the constituency. Sometimes a constituency name can given impression that is not one hundred per cent accurate. I mean it's a freak result and is going to be hard to maintain (harder than certain university constituencies where I suspect that the genie of Student Electoral Power will not go back into the bottle) but what happened is clear enough.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Help us, Michael Heseltine, you're our only hope!

[mvd10]

I'm not saying they should move to the right btw, I just said that it's pretty likely the next Tory leader (if May is ousted) won't turn to the left on economic issues. And I wouldn't be surprised if people like Davidson and Cameron are to the right of May on economic issues. May is really right-wing on immigration and the EU, but she's pretty left-wing on economic issues (atleast her rhetoric is). This lost her a lot of votes in places like Kensington. The more economically libertarian Tories accepted May's rhetoric on workers' rights and energy prices as long as she kept winning. But it's pretty clear that May's approach didn't work, so why would the Tories even support adding more workers' rights and freezing energy prices if those policies violate their beliefs and didn't win them any more seats?

And moving to the left didn't exactly hurt the Labour party btw, even though I don't think Corbyn ever will be PM.

So according to you, voters in Kensington were so displeased with May's economic turn to the left that they voted for the Labour party under Jeremy Corbyn? Sounds really implausible to me. Victoria Borwick, the incumbent Tory MP in Kensington (69% Remain), being a Brexiteer + the general anti-Tory trend in London have been much more important, I think.

I would also not overstate May's turn to the left. I thought it was real, but the manifesto didn't really show it. This has also been one of the reasons that the Conservatives failed to attract a larger number of former UKIP voters: many went back to Labour instead because of the Tories' right-wing manifesto. I would argue the Tories should have turned to the left economically much more than they did.

I probably should have been clearer but I meant that the combination of her left turn on economics and right turn on immigration and the EU was toxic to people in Kensington. They might as well vote for Labour which (while it's even worse for them on taxes and stuff like that) atleast somewhat aligns with their interests on Brexit.

[Blair]

Yeah Kensington wasn't lost because May mentioned putting workers on boards last year; but rather because cuts to schools/police have cut through a lot more than they did two years ago, and when that is combined with May's entire approach to Brexit e.g calling people in London 'citizens of nowhere' certainly hurt her.

The swings in these london seats were so big that they can't be explained with a single factor; my seat had 10K added to the Labour majority, and we have absolutely no idea how 

[Antonio the Sixth]

Can she really cling to power with these opinion figures?