Next UK General Election thread

[Phony Moderate]

The (worthless) internals on the poll have Labour ahead in Scotland ftr.

[Leftbehind]

YouGov/The Times (changes from their last pre-election poll):

Lab 46% (+11)
Con 38% (-4)
Lib 6% (-4)
UKIP 4% (-1)
Nats 4% (-1)
Oth 1% (-2)

Doesn't suggest the Nats have collapsed further - but the Greens appear to have.

When polls list it only as Nats, does that just mean SNP & Plaid Cymru? It doesn't include Sinn Fein et al., right?

The polls don't list it as Nats, that's just the common shorthand. It's usually SNP/PCY.

[IceAgeComing]

Yougov are the only major polling firm that stick SNP and Plaid together; the others have the two separate (and generally include the latter with the others)

The (worthless) internals on the poll have Labour ahead in Scotland ftr.

yougov internals are worse than useless, don't bother looking at them - especially the regional ones since they are tiny and unrepresentative - one of the other post-election polls that had Labour ahead nationally had the Tories at over 40% in Scotland which, eh, isn't the case.

[parochial boy]

yougov internals are worse than useless, don't bother looking at them - especially the regional ones since they are tiny and unrepresentative - one of the other post-election polls that had Labour ahead nationally had the Tories at over 40% in Scotland which, eh, isn't the case.

Yeah, the compulsory warning about unskewing polls is important here. One cross tab looking off doesn't mean the poll is wrong.

Although, having said that, I'm assuming that the pollsters are all still making stuff up on the fly when it comes to weighting the poll data.

[Shadows]

Sample Size 1648, Scotland 167, so pretty decent for Scotland

Lab - 329 (Majority) in Swingometer

Which is totally faulty given it shows Lab gaining 10 seats over SNP in Scotland with SNP at 27 overall with only 8 seat losses.

Scotland Cross-tab is more interesting though -

Lab - 36%
SNP - 31%
Tory - 25%
Lib-Dem - 5%

Which gives the following seats in Swingometer -

Lab - 36 (+29)
Tory - 14 (+1)
SNP - 4 (-31)
Lib-Dem - 5(+1)

Lab is getting much more than 10 seats with this performance in Scotland but at 31% SNP will not go down to 4 seats (that is kinda absurd).

But Labour's seat to vote thing is getting better, more uniform, translating to seats properly. Surely Lab will pick up 20-25 odd seats if they get 35-40% of the vote in Scotland. I also expect bandwagon effect, whoever is stronger between SNP & Labour will get the lion's share of left wing voters. Voters will chose 1 party in most seats & double down on that to stop the Tories.

Yougov's seat prediction model (whether by fluke or not) was surprisingly good. I think if it was done here it would give Lab over 340 seats.

Anyways look at the age based polarization -

18-24 - 15/73
25-49 - 30/56
50-64 - 38/41
65+  - 66/19

Tories are done when they lose even the 50-64 old voter demographic. It is just that the 65+ dinosaurs live in a different world pro- Margaret Thatcher type world which has gone away.

As more older people die & young people come in, this will be a bloodbath & a demographic disaster for the Tories !

[IceAgeComing]

yougov internals are worse than useless, don't bother looking at them

[vileplume]

Sample Size 1648, Scotland 167, so pretty decent for Scotland

Lab - 329 (Majority) in Swingometer

Which is totally faulty given it shows Lab gaining 10 seats over SNP in Scotland with SNP at 27 overall with only 8 seat losses.

Scotland Cross-tab is more interesting though -

Lab - 36%
SNP - 31%
Tory - 25%
Lib-Dem - 5%

Which gives the following seats in Swingometer -

Lab - 36 (+29)
Tory - 14 (+1)
SNP - 4 (-31)
Lib-Dem - 5(+1)

Lab is getting much more than 10 seats with this performance in Scotland but at 31% SNP will not go down to 4 seats (that is kinda absurd).

But Labour's seat to vote thing is getting better, more uniform, translating to seats properly. Surely Lab will pick up 20-25 odd seats if they get 35-40% of the vote in Scotland. I also expect bandwagon effect, whoever is stronger between SNP & Labour will get the lion's share of left wing voters. Voters will chose 1 party in most seats & double down on that to stop the Tories.

Yougov's seat prediction model (whether by fluke or not) was surprisingly good. I think if it was done here it would give Lab over 340 seats.

Anyways look at the age based polarization -

18-24 - 15/73
25-49 - 30/56
50-64 - 38/41
65+  - 66/19

Tories are done when they lose even the 50-64 old voter demographic. It is just that the 65+ dinosaurs live in a different world pro- Margaret Thatcher type world which has gone away.

As more older people die & young people come in, this will be a bloodbath & a demographic disaster for the Tories !

In the short term it may create problems that is true but 'demographic disaster' is far over blowing it for the same reason that the 'demographics is destiny' argument that changing demographics will create a permanent Democratic majority in the US will never come to pass. Generational churn may indeed force the Tories to move left but the next Labour government (whenever that may be) will eventually become unpopular and upset enough of their own voters that the Tories will win again even after the baby boomers are gone. Politics is cyclical and the idea that the young generation (and the generations after them) will remain heavily Labour all through their lives even with an unpopular Labour government (all governments become unpopular eventually) is just silly.

[thumb21]

The movement surrounding Jacob Rees Mogg appears to be really taking off recently. Let's say they win and Mogg becomes prime minister in 2019 after Brexit is complete. How do you think his premiership would go and how would the 2022 election go assuming the Conservative government lasts?

[Gary J]

The movement surrounding Jacob Rees Mogg appears to be really taking off recently. Let's say they win and Mogg becomes prime minister in 2019 after Brexit is complete. How do you think his premiership would go and how would the 2022 election go assuming the Conservative government lasts?

Jacob Rees-Mogg is a back bencher and likely to remain so. All Conservative leaders for more than a century have been front benchers when selected or elected leader (apart from Andrew Bonar Law in 1922, who had retired from his first term as leader in 1921 due to ill health which he seemed to have recovered from by 1922).
 

[IceAgeComing]

I can't see any path that Rees-Mogg would manage to get through the first rounds of the leadership election where only MPs vote, so it's not really worth thinking about.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Quick question, does anyone know a website where we can predict the results with a map?

[Former President tack50]

Quick question, does anyone know a website where we can predict the results with a map?

I guess there's this one:

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/swingometer-map

Far from the best but better than nothing I guess

[Kamala]

Quick question, does anyone know a website where we can predict the results with a map?

http://principalfish.co.uk/electionmaps/?map=predictit

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Some new polls:

Westminster voting intention:

LAB: 42%
CON: 41%
LDEM: 9%
UKIP: 3%
GRN: 2%

(via @IpsosMORI, 14 - 18 Jul)

Westminster voting intention:

LAB: 43% (-)
CON: 42% (+1)
LDEM: 7% (-)
UKIP: 3% (-)
GRN: 2% (-1)

(via @ICMResearch, 14 - 16 Jul)

Westminster voting intention:

LAB: 43% (-2)
CON: 41% (+2)
LDEM: 5% (-)
UKIP: 5% (-)
GRN: 2% (-)

(via @OpiniumResearch, 11 - 14 Jul)
Westminster voting intention:

LAB: 41% (-4)
CON: 39% (-)
LDEM: 8% (+1)
UKIP: 6% (+2)

(via @Survation, 14 - 15 Jul)

So at this point the theme is a close race but a narrow Labour lead (enough to possibly take more seats than Tories if the election were today)

[_]

I think Corbyn easily has momentum here, next election is his to lose.

[parochial boy]

Overreacting to a cross tab alert!

But, latest YouGov has toplines of:

Con - 41
Lab - 44
LD - 6

But the Scotland crosstab has Labour on 33; SNP on 29 and Tories on 28...

More big swings underway in Scotland? or Crosstabs being completely unreliable as they obviously are anyway.

Though I'd post it anyway seeing as only a few months ago, the assumption was that LiS were dead and buried.

[Boston Bread]

Electoral calculus tells me the SNP would win just 3 seats with that result. It's insane how spread out their vote must be.

[Mike88]

Electoral calculus tells me the SNP would win just 3 seats with that result. It's insane how spread out their vote must be.

Indeed. According to their map, they would only win Dundee East, Ross Skye and Lochaber and Inverness.

And Labour would be just 4 seats shy of a majority:

322 Labour (+60)
288 Tories (-30)
  15 LibDem (+3)
    3 SNP (-32)
    3 PC (-1)
    1 Green
  18 N. Ireland

[TheSaint250]

LibDems seem to be dead.

[Leftbehind]

LibDems seem to be dead.

They've been in this position since 2011, just some seemed in denial about it. They took their left-wing voters for granted and delivered an austerity government a super majority, that few are rushing back to them post coalition is of no surprise to anyone but the party leadership.

And Labour would be just 4 seats shy of a majority:

In reality they'd already have a majority, given SF's abstention.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

It's not just their left flank (which was never that large, especially before 2005) it is that they have alienated successfully large elements of their core vote, who now have decided they might as well vote for one of the major parties - this benefits the Tories in practice. And the sort of campaign they ran for June was absolutely not the best way to win that vote back.

In practice, they are fast becoming a party for the more liberally minded higher professionals with the occasional traditional bastion added in. There is enough of the former to maintain a viable parliamentary party - Bath, SE London, East Dunbartonshire, also St Albans which, while they didn't win, is a very viable taget now - but not much beyond 'viable'. And as for the traditional bastions, other than Orkney and Shetland and the Scottish Highlands, it is uncertain how long they will last without their current MPs. I'm pretty sure Norfolk North and Westmoreland will return to the Conservative column once Lamb and Farron retire, and in many seats where they got respectable vote shares but didn't win they ran a former MP (Compare, say, St Ives and North Cornwall to everywhere else in Cornwall). Perhaps their full collapse has been averted yet...

Also I'll add as a final note, in the English Midlands they failed to finish first or second in any seat. Now this was never a good area for them but in the North of England they won only their leaders' seat (just) and finished second in merely six others, some of which they were still utterly miles behind. In Wales they lost 36 out of 40 deposits.

[Leftbehind]

It's not just their left flank (which was never that large, especially before 2005) it is that they have alienated successfully large elements of their core vote, who now have decided they might as well vote for one of the major parties - this benefits the Tories in practice. And the sort of campaign they ran for June was absolutely not the best way to win that vote back.

Their left flank certainly was substantial, and started under the leadership of Kennedy. I remember during the 2001 election coverage that fact being noted, with the BBC commissioning a poll to demonstrate that: asking each party's supporters their opinion on nationalisations, opposing privatisations and higher public spending, and on each they found substantially more take-up from the Lib Dem voters - and that was before the Iraq War, and the solidifying of the student vote.

I'd dispute it helping the Tories. The Tories benefited from their collapse but in nowhere near the numbers Labour did. In the South West and other bastions where the Liberals are the only hope of unseating them, and any Liberal vote lost is to their favour, certainly. But elsewhere it's very much in the Left's favour to have a unified vote and a remaining fringe pro-EU party mostly retaining committed right-liberals who'd otherwise likely vote Tory.

[Shadows]

Electoral calculus tells me the SNP would win just 3 seats with that result. It's insane how spread out their vote must be.

Indeed. According to their map, they would only win Dundee East, Ross Skye and Lochaber and Inverness.

And Labour would be just 4 seats shy of a majority:

322 Labour (+60)
288 Tories (-30)
  15 LibDem (+3)
    3 SNP (-32)
    3 PC (-1)
    1 Green
  18 N. Ireland

322 is the majority because Sinn Fein won't take their seats. The momentum will be with Lab & if they are the leader in Scotland & in many other marginal seats, the momentum will swing towards them. Lib-Dem in this poll is winning a few more seats in Scotland.

If this is the true case, Lab wins more seats in Scotland & gets a majority. Anyways atleast 2 years away, so kind of meaningless.

[cp]

Anyways atleast 2 years away, so kind of meaningless.

Why 2 years, do you say?

[Phony Moderate]

Anyways atleast 2 years away, so kind of meaningless.

Why 2 years, do you say?

Maybe thinking of the Brexit negotiations.