Next UK General Election thread (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 27, 2024, 06:58:10 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  International Elections (Moderators: afleitch, Hash)
  Next UK General Election thread (search mode)
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: Next UK General Election thread  (Read 21730 times)
Boston Bread
New Canadaland
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,636
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -5.00, S: -5.00

« on: June 11, 2017, 03:36:40 PM »


According to this, Labour needs a 0.77-point lead in order to catch up the Tories in terms of seats (with a uniform swing of 1.59). That's bad, but not too bad.

They need a 7.22-point lead to win an absolute majority. Tories only need a 3.29-point lead. Now THAT is bad.
2 things that could mitigate this problem:
1) A Lab almost-majority is probably more stable than a Con almost-majority. SNP, Plaid, LD, Green will certainly be bigger and probably more cooperative than DUP/UKIP.
2) A large swing to Labour is likely to produce more seats than uniform swing would suggest. It happened this time (Labour's vote was more efficient than often predicted), and their Liverpool/North London vote shares are pretty much at their ceiling; the swing would have to be from elsewhere.
Logged
Boston Bread
New Canadaland
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,636
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -5.00, S: -5.00

« Reply #1 on: August 04, 2017, 10:40:51 AM »

Electoral calculus tells me the SNP would win just 3 seats with that result. It's insane how spread out their vote must be.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.027 seconds with 12 queries.